WTF... just got home and read:

[busterbrown]

That Clinton has a slim lead according to Pew..

Somebody.. Please Explain.. i’m disturbed..

[vadermike]

1. Ugh

We may lose this if we get complacent God help us

[susanna]

5. Then choose not to be complacent. n/t

[Democat]

20. You seem very concerned about Clinton!

Lots of concern posts you've been making lately?

[Jarqui]

2. No. It's 4pts with Pew, 5.8 in poll of polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

No we can't get complacent. There are some nasty people on the other side.

But try not to go up and down like a yo-yo with every poll. You'll be worn out weeks before the election.

[HereSince1628]

21. When the Monmouth poll times-out, RCP's avg is going to look another half percent closer

unless some poller (maybe PPP) provides some bigger margin.

Have you noticed that with all it's noise, HRC's lead on Trump in the RCP avg since the beginning of Jan has avg'd just 4.7%? Pretty much right where her lead is now.

I'm not saying anything about the value of RCP's poll coverage, except that despite reporting of big leads in some states, the RCP avg keeps making it look like a close race in national level polling.

I would expect the running avg to be less noisy, but RCP is not sending much signal of an increasing lead.

I find that really curious and wonder about both how the national polls are weighting their surveys, and how much party loyalty rather than consideration of Trump's presentation is affecting the polling.

[Jarqui]

22. I'm much more concerned with the individual states

She is doing really, really well there and has a much more commanding lead than the national polls suggest. Much better than Obama over McCain or Romney.

Things can change so it's not over. But she's doing real good right now.

[applegrove]

3. Hopefully, what with Trump's sudden talk of tolerance, his base will

lose enthusiasm and not vote in droves.

[OnDoutside]

10. His base will never desert him. The issues are the moderate

Republican voters and independent voters. That's the difference between a close to call race, and a landslide.

[applegrove]

14. But some in his base are people who were not political before he freed

them to be racists. He is their muse, unlocking all kinds of anger. But now he is locking them up again. I hope they realize they are being used, don't vote, and do a little soul searching on how only interconnectedness will make them happy.

[OnDoutside]

18. We've seen plenty of interviews of people like that, and all have just made excuses for him. They

still plan to vote for him. They won't realize anything, because above all, they hate Hillary.

[sarae]

19. Are there really people who hear him say "I will always tell you the truth" and they believe him?

BTW, he followed that statement by saying that he's completely self-funding his campaign.

[chillfactor]

4. and do not look at one poll..

look at all of them.

[struggle4progress]

6. Phones, doorbells, and shoeleather

[Jeffersons Ghost]

7. And protests if those cross-burners hack voting computers to put the monster in power

He's heading to Louisiana to distract plenty of police protection, which will create more loss of life and property. Do readers see the similarity between these people yet? Neither one of them has regard for human life. These expressions are common in both of these sociopaths:

[rusty quoin]

8. Trump cannot win. Remember that.

[AllTooEasy]

9. What do the electoral college polls say?

Let me help you...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_trump_sanders_electoral_college_map.html

Close my ass. For the last time, the US does not conduct a national presidential election!!! If we focus on national polling numbers, which aren't the f$&@#%*g rules, then Hillary will lose.

[LenaBaby61]

13. What do the electoral college polls say?

Exactly.

It's still too early for me to take polls seriously. Yes it's nice to see good polling numbers, but there are still too many variables that can whittle a 9-10 point lead for Hillary on a Tuesday down to a 4 point lead on Wednesday, with nothing apparently having happened to cause this. However as we know, if there is a "bad" poll or two thrown into the mix and averaged out, a lead can as we've seen go away in a flash.

However, when I do want to check on the state of a race, I go to the Electoral College maps I trust and then I really begin following them around the mid part of September until election day. I generally don't follow "polls" with interest until October 1st.

[ailsagirl]

11. I tend to discount all polls, even positive ones, in favor of fivethirtyeight.com

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

[bagelsforbreakfast]

12. Trump seems to be on a roll...

538 had his chances at 9.5% a few days ago now he's over 12%

[LenaBaby61]

15. I have to admit...

That I see the media starting to rehabilitate tRump now because of course they want and need a horse race in this election for ratings and for $$ they make off of ads shown during a whole show devoted to tRump. IF that POS can somehow tone down his ignorant, racist, misogynistic and hateful and mentally ill ramblings enough, some in the media will do the rest as in try to drag Hillary down if she or a surrogate or someone in her camp makes a misstep. I didn't watch "Softballs" today with Chris Matthews, but my friend who did told me that Chris pretty much allowed that non-talent person whose NEVER taken anyone to the White House whose being talked about like she's the greatest campaign manager in history Kellyann Conway to lie the whole 15-20 minute interview about Hillary with little to NO correction. The biggest whopper allowed to be repeated several times was that Hillary is NOT doing well with women voters amongst OTHER whoppers

First off, I do hope that people take Hillary's heed to continue to work HARD like she's way behind and to not get complacent. I also HOPE that there are some surrogates put out there who know how to get to the point faster than the few I've seen lately. They normally do a lot of talking THEN get to the point. Lastly, the Clinton campaign issued a letter taking on tRump concerning him saying he "regretted" some of the things he said on the campaign trail. The press release was long and rambled a bit but did ask tRump at the end if he was really regretted some of the things he said. I wish the person who wrote that press release had said "Okay Mr. Trump, WHAT specifically do you regret about saying in the heat of your campaign? Was it when you insulted Mr. Khan and family, specifically his son? Was it when you mocked a disabled reporter? Was it when you said Mexican immigrants were ALL rapists? Or when you said you would put a woman or possibly her doctor in JAIL if she had an abortion? PLEASE share specific details of what you "REGRET" saying during the campaign trail."

[still_one]

16. If it is a national poll it is bullshit. National polls have a difficult time of weighting larger

states from smaller states, and are prone to sampling inaccurracies

It is the individual state polls that are significant

[JonLP24]

17. 538.still has Clinton an 86% favorite

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/