Hey malaise....DUCK!!!!!!!

[Lochloosa]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form around mid-week while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast
of South America, should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds should
spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser
Antilles beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. Shower activity increased overnight in association with the
remnants of Lisa. Although earlier scatterometer data indicated
winds to tropical storm force, the system's circulation was somewhat
elongated. Unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to
cause the circulation to open up into a trough of low pressure later
today without the possibility of regeneration into a tropical
cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

[malaise]

1. There is near panic across the Caribbean

Rumors of Cat4 or Cat5 near Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba are everywhere.

We're getting ready to duck - something is coming -preparing for the worst and hoping for a miss

Check this - related

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028183993

[lpbk2713]

2. Many thanks for your vigilance.

There are a lot of us that rely on it.

[malaise]

4. You're welcome - LOL

The thing is that once they take the Caribbean trek, they move our way before reaching you.
Hubby is really worried about this one. Me - not so much - too early to panic -watch and prepare

[Lochloosa]

6. The meterologist seem to be worried about this one.

Stay safe my friend.

[malaise]

7. We're the lucky ones

but there are millions on these three islands who will be devastated if this hits us as a Cat4 or Cat5.

We'll experience inconvenience and maybe even minor damage.

[Baclava]

8. 97L Potentially a Dangerous Storm for the Caribbean - Jeff Masters

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/97l-potentially-a-dangerous-storm-for-the-caribbean

[malaise]

9. Yep

This one is going to do some serious damage somewhere

[Baclava]

10. Too early for good model tracking - most want to curve north

[Baclava]

12. 97L Approaches Tropical Storm Strength.

Right turn???!

[malaise]

17. History will not repeat itself

We'll see

[Baclava]

18. Don't bet on it

this one is spooky

[madokie]

15. As my mother would say

expect the worse and never be disappointed

[malaise]

16. Good advice

[randome]

3. Move the debate to a floating platform in the Gulf. Trump's bloviating will kill the storm.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]Meredith McIver approves of this post.[/center][/font][hr]

[malaise]

5. Or....

a huge breeze will lift the rug and blow him away

[bigtree]

11. k&r!

...looking pretty ominous.

Stay safe!

[Hekate]

13. KnR. Stay safe.

[malaise]

14. If soon to be Matthew strengthens in the Caribbean

we will get a hit. So far so good - it isn't yet a TS so I doubt it will be Cat 3 or above if/when he reaches us.
Those abovv us have bigger worries because some models have Cat4 Bahamas which is bad news for them and mainland USA.

Early days still - Windwards now facing serious rain. Barbados is shut down starting with the Grantley Adams airport and all schools. Dominica the same.

[Baclava]

19. bump - T.S. Matthew

[Lochloosa]

20. Someone is going to have a bad day soon.

[Baclava]

21. bump - Hurricane Matthew

Last edited Thu Sep 29, 2016, 02:51 PM - Edit history (1)

Tropical Storm Matthew has been upgraded to a hurricane.

The storm is in the eastern Caribbean with sustained winds of 75 mph, moving west at 17 mph.

[Baclava]

22. bump - Matthew Rapidly Intensified to a Category 2 Hurricane