Florida is dangerously close to being unwinnable...

[Drunken Irishman]

...for Trump!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html

Literally can't see a Trump victory without Florida. Go in for the kill, everyone in Florida. Keep working your butts off for the next month! You're doing a great job down there!

[Funtatlaguy]

1. I'm feeling much better about all but 2 states.

Only two battleground states are lagging.
Ohio and Iowa.
Everyplace else trending in the right direction.

[Cosmocat]

3. Ohio has been tough all along

for Hillary.

She is in real trouble if things go bad with PA, VA, Colorado, those have been pretty solid for her.

Nevada and NC are two right leaning states that she has had some decent traction in while she has not had a lot of traction in Iowa.

Florida seems to slightly lean to her, give or take at times.

But, Ohio has been the toughest "swing" state for her against Trump all along.

[dembotoz]

15. what trump DID very well in the first debate is appeal to the rust belt

we are damn lucky trump threw it in the shitter after the first half hour

[avebury]

21. They need to hammer away on

Trump using Chinese steel over US steel and how bad he is for the rust state. Hypocrisy thy name is Trump.

[Akamai]

59. yes! Call him out on buying from China or lower-wage countries whenever he can.

[rivegauche]

36. But how can they possibly believe his bullshit.

His screaming about loss of manufacturing? What a joke! HRC should have immediately interrupted him to talk about how HE exported manufacturing to CHI-NA and Mexico. It's simply staggering that he gets away with this.

[rtracey]

44. IF they

If his supporters, (who I would say the majority of have or know someone in the military) can stay with him after his PTSD comment, then they have ZERO loyalty to this country. They in my book are all traitors. If your leader is a racist, homophobic, anti-immigration, anti-assistance to military wounded type leader, and you DO NOT come out against them, that makes you just as racist, homophobic, anti-immigration, anti-assistance to military wounded scumbags as your leader. I hope his latest tirade into the PTSD comments hurts him for the rest of the campaign

[rivegauche]

45. you're absolutely right of course. And I agree nt

[Charles Bukowski]

55. The fact that so many Trump supporters

were gleefully waiting from the wikileaks dump shows what phony patriots they are.

Hell, Trump literally asked a foreign power to commit espionage on a political opponent and lost no support. That's treason in my book.

[Akamai]

60. One of he seems to be doing well in Ohio is that the mainstream press is not reporting Hillary's

views on the TPP. I saw a strong denunciation from her in one of her presentations yesterday, but there was no report of it at all in the press. The media does not want to report the issues she is focusing on.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

62. Yep. It's astounding that he gets away with such blatant hypocricy.

His supporters have been so thoroughly brainwashed against Democrats, that they would vote for Satan himself if he were running against us!

[calimary]

39. It would be great to see Ohio fall off the list of battleground states.

To see that state not matter anymore in the election calculus. That idea was being kicked around on cable news yesterday ("she may not even need Ohio, regardless what happens&quot and it really brightened my spirits. I confess I've had hard feelings ever since Kenneth Blackwell (Ohio's version of Katherine Harris) helped bush/cheney steal Ohio and win four more years in OUR White House! I've been nursing a grudge ever since then.

[tblue37]

47. LeBron James is on her side there, so maybe that will help. nt

[Spitfire of ATJ]

63. Trump stole Bernie's bit of being anti-NAFTA.

[jmowreader]

67. I think Trump lost NC this week

...with his "veterans with PTSD are weak" gaffe. There are a LOT of veterans in North Carolina, and we don't like the intimation any of us are "weak."

[Botany]

26. no way Trump wins OH

n/t

[Major Nikon]

66. Trump could win OH, FL, NV, AND NC but still lose the election

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#stateorder

He has almost no realistic path to victory.

[dbackjon]

37. Clinton needs to run ads hammering Trump for buying all that steel and aluminum in China

And all his furniture in Asia as well.



Trump sends jobs overseas.

[tclambert]

71. Nate Silver now shows Ohio leaning ever so slightly toward Hillary.

RealClearPolitics still shows Trump leading in Ohio.

Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com predicts Hillary will likely win over 300 electoral votes.

realclearpolitics.com shows 205 electoral votes leaning toward Hillary, only 165 leaning toward Donald, with 168 toss-ups. This means Hillary needs 65 more to win, and Donald needs 105. In the toss-up states, Hillary leads by more than 2% for 72 electoral votes, and has a very slight lead (<2%) for 50 more (68 counting Ohio). Donald leads in states that give him only 29 more EVs. Result: Hillary wins 345 to 194. That means Donald would have to flip 76 EVs to win. He would have to flip all of the following: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado.

[saltpoint]

2. There's a pretty good chance that

Trump and Pence will be even more rattled and off their game in the closing weeks of the campaign if their own internal polling shows Pennsylvania and Florida out of reach.

From early on Trump has insisted he would win Pennsylvania, although recent polling is suggesting that Clinton-Kaine will carry Pennsylvania. Evidently voters in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas aren't especially drawn to a misogynist tax cheat spewing vulgarities from one end of the country to the other.

If Florida is also slipping away from Trump-Pence, Trump's temper-tantrums may become more frequent and more intense.

[Wounded Bear]

29. Pennsylvania would be a miracle for Trump to win it...

Lot of red in the rural areas, but Philly and it's 'burbs dominate the state politically.

[saltpoint]

31. Sounds very encouraging. I hope

the blue trend line keeps rising. I think the best thing that can happen now in a lot of states is for Clinton-Kaine to win by historic percentages.

I have had quite enough of Donald and Mike's bigotry tour.

[NightWatcher]

4. I'm trying as hard as I can to dissuade people here from voting

for him or even at all (my repuke family).

[awoke_in_2003]

54. I'd encourage them to skip it this year

That way the don't vote for downticket republicans

[monmouth4]

5. I'd like to see Rubio have a big loss also..n/t

[saltpoint]

7. I'll second that. eom

[calimary]

40. Third!

[beachbum bob]

6. trump morphing into junkyard dog mode doesn' appeal to college educated white women

....period

and democrats have to hammer home trumps intend to dismantle social security and medicare in states like florida and arizona with their 65+ older citizens

[LW1977]

8. What is Ohio's deal?

It should be atleast a light shade of blue atleast.

[EV_Ares]

9. You know, I wondered the same thing but I did hear an explanation the other day.

some of the pundits were discussing the Ohio situation & a guy said actually Ohio is becoming the new Georgia. He said that Blacks & minorities have actually moved out of the state.

Didn't catch all of it but maybe some others here have heard this as well.

[retrowire]

11. Ive been to Ohio and well

I think I know what their problem is.

[GulfCoast66]

65. Their demographic has not changed

In 60 years. 80% white and older than average. Heard an interview with Sherrod Brown last night and he mentioned that fact.

[uponit7771]

75. +1

[ckimmy57]

10. Ohio

I am from Ohio and I can tell you....there are Trump signs and banners EVERYWHERE. The ignorance of the people in this state never ceases to astound me. The redneck racists are out in full force and I have had to literally bite my tongue ALOT to stay out of jail.

[mcar]

12. This Floridian is soon to start GOTV efforts

in my ruby red county. We'll at least reach out to the Dems here.

[TXCritter]

13. The cuba issue may have galvanized the Cuban community against Trump.

[Johnny2X2X]

14. There is no path for Trump

Without FL, he has no path to win, even if he flipped PA and WI somehow.

There are simply no paths to victory for him without FL and our ground game is going to make a 3-4 point lead more like a 5-6 point lead.

[Coyotl]

17. except the Bush path, rigging elections.

I'm sorry, the Republican path, if you can't win, gerrymander, suppress votes, delete voters, and if that still isn't enough, go to black neighborhoods and steal the damn thing.

[Johnny2X2X]

25. Luckily we have Hillary

She is on top of everything, her team is not leaving anything to chance.

Never have I been as confident in a fair election as I am with Hillary and her team running things, they have a plan for everything.

[Hekate]

73. From your keyboard to God's eyes

[Hekate]

72. Historically, this is true

[Wounded Bear]

32. There's about 5 states you can say that about...

and Trump is lagging in at least 3 of them.

[Sancho]

16. I've been out walking for Hillary this week...in FL

Looks OK on college campuses, but many aren't registered. Too many Johnson students (they want weed).

Suburbs are split - lots of straight GOP voters, but even repub women are changing for Hillary. Traditional Cuban repubs are turning against Trump.

Overall, registrations are more Democratic. Mail in ballots are out this week.

[Cycle2016]

18. OH needs ads against Republicans supporting Trump.

Showing that he purchased Junk Steel & Aluminum from China for his businesses. Also need ads in PA & WI.

[aeroman]

19. Kudo's to all in Florida working on the GOTV!!

Thank You, Thank You, Thank You!!!!

[calimary]

41. Welcome to DU, aeroman!

Yeah - GOTV is SOOOOO important in states like Florida. Let's Go, everybody!

[LynneSin]

20. You were dangerously close to having your butt kicked....

until I opened the thread and saw it was good news

[Cakes488]

22. Ohio = Indiana

[calimary]

42. Welcome to DU, Cakes488!

Just imagine the day when Ohio is no longer among the "slobbered-over" like the other battleground states are.

Sometimes I envy that. My state, California, NEVER gets attention. NEVER. They all come out here to raise money but we're such a big block of one-way votes (leaning strongly Democratic) that nobody feels the need to campaign hard out here.

Then again... I'm glad California has been a lock for the Dems so consistently. One more thing that won't keep me up at night. I LOVE living in a Blue state! It means MY interests will be more fully represented.

[Cakes488]

49. I feel the same way about NY !!

Trashbag thought he had a shot here....NEVER.

[calimary]

68. I remember the night of the New York primary.

Lawrence O'Donnell looked at the vote spread: Hillary on top, THEN Trump and the rest of the GOP. He noted the obvious - that she not only got the most votes of the night, she earned way more than all three remaining CONS (Trump, Cruz, and Kasich) combined! Then Lawrence slowly intoned in all solemnity - "New York is NOT in play."

She's gonna take your state AND mine, Cakes!

[Bucky]

23. On the page you linked to, I see an average 2.8 pt spread over Trump across all polls

I wouldn't call that "unwinnable". I'd say he's just a well motivated trog-voter base away from winning there.

Florida Dems have a shit-ton of work to do down there. It's especially vital for those downballot races that will determine both what kind of Congress Hillary has to work with AND what kind of gerrymandering the state sees after the 2020 Census.

[geardaddy]

24. I can't believe MN is listed as toss up.

We haven't voted for a Repuke president since 1972.

[VMA131Marine]

27. MN is not a toss-up

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/minnesota/#now

[geardaddy]

30. The link in the OP has MN as a toss-up

[Johnny2X2X]

28. MN is not a tossup.

Only if you go by the Breitbart-Gravis Poll.

Hillary is ahead 6-7 with real polls and is a 90% favorite to win MN.

[Wounded Bear]

33. Mn is a bit like Penn...been blue in the presidential for many years...nt

[Orrex]

52. The four-step process for covering politics in Pennsylvania:

1. Ignore Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Scranton and State College
2. Find a pair of guys in a tiny backwoods town sitting on a battered porch beneath a Confederate flag
3. Ask them how they're voting in November
4a. If they disagree with each other, declare that Pennsylvania is a toss-up
4b. If they sagree with each other, declare that Pennsylvania is favoring Republicans

[Wounded Bear]

53. LOL!!!

American Journalism at its finest.

[bucolic_frolic]

34. Somewhere this week I read

Latinos are registering faster in Florida than any other
demographic group

So that's a plus for Hillary

[RKP5637]

35. Phew.......... had me going for a minute 'till I read the content.

[Helen Borg]

38. Florida imploded for Trump, that's for sure.

He worked really hard at that!

[DarthDem]

57. LOL

He really did. I always thought that FL would be tough sledding for him, but between bribing Bondi, insulting Ms. Machado, and then having it inconveniently revealed that he was doing business in Cuba, well, it wasn't a good week for his chances with Floridians.

Go Hillary!!!!

[bullsnarfle]

43. As a native Floridian

I am trying to think positive. But there is an awful lot of stupid in my (North FL) neck o' the woods.

[ananda]

46. Yeah, go in for the kill!

But after the hurricane.

[4lbs]

48. In poker parlance, Trump needs a straight flush. Hillary just needs a pair of any blue states.

[DonCoquixote]

50. Gang, Florida boy here

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do not be charmed by numbers. Rick Scott and Pam Bondi will do everything they can to tank this state, even if they need to hire Hackers to do it. Do NOT LET UP for one half second, because the media would love nothing more than to repeat 2000.

[Hekate]

74. I believe you. The GOP cannot win without cheating, and they cheat as much as possible

I lost an incredible amount of faith in The American Way in 2000

[Sunny05]

51. Yea!

[0rganism]

56. if FL, PA, and VA go to HRC, this thing wraps up real early Tuesday night

very optimistic this year, which is unusual

[davidn3600]

58. Almost 30 years living in this state....I call this nonsense

No one is winning this state by more than 2 points. Don't believe the polls.

Florida tends to bounce back and forth during this point of the election. And then suddenly tightens up in the final days.

[Hachetman]

61. Get out....

Get out the vote, get out the vote, get out the vote...!

[forest444]

64. Your words to God's ear.

I trust someone will be keeping an eye on the electronic tabulation process down there. Reptilian Rick might try anything.

[Warren DeMontague]

69. yeah baby.

[Liberty Belle]

70. Wait'll the hurricane blows Zika mosquitoes everywhere...

They breed in standing water. Lots of that around. Fuel up that righteous anger against Republicans who wouldn't fund Zika prevention.

Anybody ask Trump about Zika funding? Would love a link to any asinine statements he's made.

And in case anybody didn't hear, the hurricane is still140 mph plus, steaming toward Florida, the Caorlinas, also Georgia and maybe other Gulf Coast areas.

Not a great time to be a Libertarian candidate who is anti-gubmint disaster aid either.

Even the weather seems to be helping out Hillary.

[LibraLiz1973]

76. I have to admit it took me hours to click on this thread because the title made me nauseous

I was off on an internal rant about what the fuck is up with Florida.
SO GLAD that isn't the case!!! lol

[HockeyMom]

77. All I see are Hillary ads on TV in SW Florida

She is definitely targeting women here. Clips over the years of her speeches about children, working mothers, etc. "I support this ad and have over many years".