General Discussion

busterbrown

(8,515 posts) Mon Oct 17, 2016, 09:54 PM Oct 2016

Read over on CNN: Ohio is close.

However 538 which got all 50 states correct in2012?

Currently....Trump 33% Clinton 64%

No pre celebrating... Understood! and I’m on the phones right now..(Grabbing a bite)

But Nice News is Nice News is Nice News..

16 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Read over on CNN: Ohio is close. (Original Post) busterbrown Oct 2016 OP

CNN Cooked Numbers itsrobert Oct 2016 #1

The information also says they only asked basic demographic questions Major Nikon Oct 2016 #6

May I remind you that. busterbrown Oct 2016 #9

Which is pretty much irrelevant to the content of the CNN poll Major Nikon Oct 2016 #13

Sorry, had two beers tonight. busterbrown Oct 2016 #16

close after lebron endorsed. close after the tapes michiganman1019 Oct 2016 #2

Thank you for your concern Warren DeMontague Oct 2016 #3

He’s obviously joking... busterbrown Oct 2016 #10

i think she should probably concede the election...it's hopeless....we're screwn spanone Oct 2016 #4

No casting asparagus! lonestarnot Oct 2016 #14

I was hoping Ohio was gaining common sense mdbl Oct 2016 #5

Post removed Post removed Oct 2016 #7

What planet do you live on? busterbrown Oct 2016 #8

64% is equivalent to 4 point favorite in a football game Awsi Dooger Oct 2016 #15

Dec 1969 #

itsrobert

(14,157 posts)

1. CNN Cooked Numbers

Reply to busterbrown (Original post)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 09:57 PM

Oct 2016

Major Nikon

(36,827 posts)

6. The information also says they only asked basic demographic questions

Reply to itsrobert (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 10:49 PM

Oct 2016

N/A doesn't mean there weren't any, just that they didn't collect that information.

The latest Marist College poll also produced similar results with Trump ahead slightly, although I still think Clinton will take Ohio.

busterbrown

(8,515 posts)

9. May I remind you that.

Reply to Major Nikon (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 11:10 PM

Oct 2016

538 called every state correctly in 2012?

Major Nikon

(36,827 posts)

13. Which is pretty much irrelevant to the content of the CNN poll

Reply to busterbrown (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 11:50 PM

Oct 2016

Which 538 also references, BTW.

busterbrown

(8,515 posts)

16. Sorry, had two beers tonight.

Reply to Major Nikon (Reply #13)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 12:01 AM

Oct 2016

Can’t keep up w/u guys.

michiganman1019

(45 posts)

2. close after lebron endorsed. close after the tapes

Reply to busterbrown (Original post)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 10:08 PM

Oct 2016

still close after all of this. I don't think that is a good sign for clinton. Plus i read that early voting is down from 2012.

Clinton will probably have to concede Ohio.

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)

3. Thank you for your concern

Reply to michiganman1019 (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 10:10 PM

Oct 2016

busterbrown

(8,515 posts)

10. He’s obviously joking...

Reply to Warren DeMontague (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 11:13 PM

Oct 2016

because if he isn’t.. I’m calling the cops.

spanone

(135,883 posts)

4. i think she should probably concede the election...it's hopeless....we're screwn

Reply to michiganman1019 (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 10:15 PM

Oct 2016

thanks for enlightening us

lonestarnot

(77,097 posts)

14. No casting asparagus!

Reply to spanone (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 11:53 PM

Oct 2016

mdbl

(4,976 posts)

5. I was hoping Ohio was gaining common sense

Reply to michiganman1019 (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 10:30 PM

Oct 2016

I guess they will have to stay in stupidsville.

Response to michiganman1019 (Reply #2)

Post removed

busterbrown

(8,515 posts)

8. What planet do you live on?

Reply to michiganman1019 (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 11:08 PM

Oct 2016

Ah, I know, you’re just fucking w/us.

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

15. 64% is equivalent to 4 point favorite in a football game

Reply to busterbrown (Original post)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 11:57 PM

Oct 2016

Nice edge but indeed close.

The man-to-man straight up odds on a 4 point favorite are slightly below 2/1 favoritism.

Keep in mind there is softness in the number due to time and variables remaining. Hillary doesn't need to expand that advantage. If every poll remains the same until election day, that 64% will soar to above 90%.

It's like the cone of a hurricane, tightening to fewer uncertainties as landfall nears.

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