Update from Nate Silver’s 538...I was feeling a little cocky lately..

[busterbrown]

This in my mind is the Bible of Projections..To Sum up; the race has tightened even before yesterday’s events, but as Silver bascically states in the article. If Hillary would have known a year a go that she would be in this polling position today...She would be pleased
Remember...538 got 50 out of 50 states correct in 2012..

Back to the Phones I head..


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-fbi-is-back-this-time-with-anthony-weiner/

[Foggyhill]

1. Good god, only 2 or 3 states were really

Hard to pick, so why keep touting 50 out of 50, even picking st random those you'd get 10% right, even taking the straight average of state polls and using basic stat you get 90%+ chance of being right

[relayerbob]

4. I agree

and even those 2 or 3 states fell in line with all major polls. 2012 was an easy race to predict, really, the only "confusion" factor was at Fox News who were so far in their bubble they actually believed it. This year, even Fox seems mostly convinced that Hillary will win, even if they are trying to create an illusion of a race

[busterbrown]

7. yea! thats the reply I was hoping for..

Marginalize one of the most respected polls out there.. Thats the ticket!
So tell me 538 should be ignored?

[Dr.Jones]

2. Feeling a little cocky?

My you have a low self esteem.... ;p

[underpants]

3. Welcome to DU

[Dr.Jones]

5. Thx!

[brooklynite]

6. Princeton Election Consortium did better than 538 in 2012...

Clinton Election probability: 97%