EMPTYWHEEL: The Evidence To Prove Russian Hack-

[kpete]

THE EVIDENCE TO PROVE THE RUSSIAN HACK

December 10, 2016/13 Comments/in 2016 Presidential Election, Russian hacks, WikiLeaks /by emptywheel
In this post, I’m going to lay out the evidence needed to fully explain the Russian hack. I think it will help to explain some of the timing around the story that the CIA believes Russia hacked the DNC to help win Trump win the election, as well as what is new in Friday’s story. I will do rolling updates on this and eventually turn it into a set of pages on Russia’s hacking.

As I see it, intelligence on all the following are necessary to substantiate some of the claims about Russia tampering in this year’s election.

1. FSB-related hackers hacked the DNC
2. GRU-related hackers hacked the DNC
3. Russian state actors hacked John Podesta’s emails
4. Russian state actors hacked related targets, including Colin Powell and some Republican sites
5. Russian state actors hacked the RNC
6. Russian state actors released information from DNC and DCCC via Guccifer 2
7. Russian state actors released information via DC Leaks
8. Russian state actors or someone acting on its behest passed information to Wikileaks
9. The motive explaining why Wikileaks released the DNC and Podesta emails
10.Russian state actors probed voter registration databases
11.Russian state actors used bots and fake stories to make information more damaging and magnify its effects
12.The level at which all Russian state actors’ actions were directed and approved
13.The motive behind the actions of Russian state actors
14.he degree to which Russia’s efforts were successful and/or primary in leading to Hillary’s defeat

I explain all of these in more detail below. For what it’s worth, I think there was strong publicly available information to prove 3, 4, 7, 11. I think there is weaker though still substantial information to support 2. It has always been the case that the evidence is weakest at point 6 and 8.

At a minimum, to blame Russia for tampering with the election, you need high degree of confidence that GRU hacked the DNC (item 2), and shared those documents via some means with Wikileaks (item 8). What is new about Friday’s story is that, after months of not knowing how the hacked documents got from Russian hackers to Wikileaks, CIA now appears to know that people close to the Russian government transferred the documents (item 8). In addition, CIA now appears confident that all this happened to help Trump win the presidency (item 13)


The explanations:
https://www.emptywheel.net/2016/12/10/evidence-prove-russian-hack/

[Fast Walker 52]

1. good to hear from Emptywheel-- haven't seen her stuff for a while

she does good research... this at minimum is a good reminder just how freaking extensive the hacking was.

[Achilleaze]

2. Positively damning. Good work.

Thank you for helping to expose how the Russians and the Republicans are making war on democracy, America and honest American citizens.

[Raster]

3. Posts like this demonstrate why DU was hacked on Election Day.

[Pachamama]

4. Agreed - and I am wondering if the Russians or hackers working with the same elements here had

Something to do with the hack of DU...

The hack on DU was pretty significant, even if it was only DU members feeling the pain. It was done to stop active watching over what was happening that election. And to thoroughly demoralize for some sadistic fun.

[Barack_America]

5. I've always assumed so. If it had been anyone else...

...it would've happened before Trump.

[Raster]

8. I don't think it was Russians, more like homegrown black hat hackers...

...most likely from 4-chan or reddit. However, point is they stopped us from sharing and comparing information for several days.

I would like to know what other sites were hacked that day.

[mopinko]

13. what makes you sure those are 2 different things?

seems right up their alley to me.

[Achilleaze]

9. + 1

They did not want - and do not want - the truth exposed.

[uponit7771]

7. +1, and many people think un-socialized data like this can't spread quickly IT CAN AND DOES !!!

The other question was why DU at all!?!?

Reddit has way more members and why just around election time?!

[N_E_1 for Tennis]

6. K&R thanks for the link.

[TheBlackAdder]

10. Assange wants a Trump pardon. Snowden is screwed--Putin will hand him over as good will gesture.

[benld74]

11. Nothing empty bout EmptyWheel!!!

[riverwalker]

12. Anyone else reading Malcolm Nance's book?

"The Plot To Hack America"
I am only halfway through, pretty terrifying.
http://skyhorsepublishing.com/titles/12572-9781510723320-plot-to-hack-america