Goodbye ANWR. Hello joint U.S. and Russia arctic drilling and increased global warming.

[suffragette]

The pieces are now in place for accords and joint actions that U.S. CEOs and Russian oligarchs have been seeking for years.

Sanctions interfered with those plans. With Republicans in control of all branches, that will likely change.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-10-12/exxon-mobil-suffers-from-russia-u-s-tensions

Tillerson had spent time in the 1990s overseeing a flagship Exxon project in Russia. And he flew there in 2011 to meet with Putin and announce a strategic partnership with Rosneft, the national oil company that absorbed Yukos' main assets after Khodorkovsky was thrown in jail.The two companies were to jointly develop potentially massive oil reserves in Russia's Arctic waters, the Black Sea, and Siberian unconventional resources. Putin spoke of investments from the deal eventually reaching perhaps $500 billion -- a big number even for Exxon. No sooner had the venture struck oil beneath the Kara Sea, though, than Exxon was forced to down tools as U.S. sanctions over the Ukraine crisis kicked in.

~~~
What Exxon, like any major, really seeks are very large, oil-focused prospects that play to its strengths, where reserves can be booked periodically to top up the tank and high upfront costs can be defrayed over decades of production. In other words, exactly what Russia potentially offered. Whether focusing on such mega-projects is a good way to go is debatable, but for now that is Exxon's way. And the company's judgment on this score has notably been called into question this year. For example, as Wolfe Research analyst Paul Sankey has pointed out, the cut to Exxon's triple-A credit rating by Standard & Poor's was directly linked to concerns around the huge spending required to replace its reserves.

No worries for them about pesky regulation since all Trump appointees are for deregulation and either deny climate change or in the case of Tillerson, acknowledge it's real, but maintain that we will just need to adjust to new realities.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/jun/28/exxonmobil-climate-change-rex-tillerson

In a speech on Wednesday, Tillerson acknowledged that burning of fossil fuels is warming the planet, but said society will be able to adapt. The risks of oil and gas drilling are well understood and can be mitigated, he said. And dependence on other nations for oil is not a concern as long as access to supply is certain, he said.
~~~
Tillerson, in a break with predecessor Lee Raymond, acknowledged that global temperatures are rising. "Clearly there is going to be an impact," he said. But he questioned the ability of climate models to predict the magnitude of the impact. He said that people would be able to adapt to rising sea levels and changing climates that may force agricultural production to shift.

"We have spent our entire existence adapting. We'll adapt," he said. "It's an engineering problem and there will be an engineering solution."

https://thinkprogress.org/cathy-mcmorris-interior-111c30319780#.cxfvy1hjy

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) will likely be tapped to lead the Department of the Interior, which oversees all of the U.S. public lands, including forest management, the Parks Service, and fossil fuel extraction.
~~~
McMorris Rodgers has repeatedly expressed her support for oil. She supports expanding offshore drilling, voted for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and voted against raising the royalty rates for oil and gas that comes from public lands.
The Department of the Interior includes the Bureau of Offshore Energy Management, which permits offshore drilling and renewable energy. A proposed plan to include parts of the Atlantic in the bureau’s five-year plan was scrapped earlier this year after community opposition. If confirmed under the Trump administration, McMorris Rodgers will have a key role in shaping the next plan.

Previously, the joint venture was just aiming for drilling on the Russian side. They have been trying for years to drill in ANWR, but had been mostly blocked. Now they can exploit both sides in a joint venture.


Never forget - money makes their world go 'round.

[truebluegreen]

1. Maybe.

Oh I have no doubt they want to, but drilling in extreme conditions is an expensive proposition, and the price of oil has to justify it.

We are not the only country in the world and even if our new overlords have their collective heads up their asses on this subject, the market may take away their incentives with more renewables and therefore less demand (and how ironic is that?). Natural gas, as bad as it is, has already killed off the coal market; those jobs aren't coming back no matter what der trumpenfuhrer does.

Best case is oil companies get new leases but don't use them (new assets on their books w/o the expense of actually providing a product).

[suffragette]

2. Trump is against renewables. Likely that investment in these will be slowed or stopped

To whatever degree he can influence.

http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Donald_Trump_Energy_+_Oil.htm

Also likely is more pressure to increase coal trains in Pacific Northwest to export more coal to Asia.

That's been an ongoing fight in this region for awhile now.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027821259

[truebluegreen]

3. Thanks for the info.

And I know you are right about Trump.

But I can envision the US under Trump becoming and being treated as a rogue nation while the rest of the world jumps into renewables. Especially China. The evidence is too overwhelming to be ignored by any but the wilfully blind and those nations with open eyes will take over leadership. It will not be a good thing for this country, but it may finally bankrupt Big Oil.

Just my opinion.

[suffragette]

5. We were both thinking about China's role at the same time. See my post below.

I think that's part of their plan, but in a different way than you envision.

Believe me that I would rather see your vision prevail, but I'm worried that they have a plan for the future that is very different than that.

[suffragette]

4. Then there's China. China is thirsty for energy. How many of the recent fights over pipelines

And coal trains have been about these being developed and pushed for eventual export to China?

Russia has recently become the top exporter of oil to China.

Combine that with exploitation of more previously off limits resources by Russia and us and you create a strong elbow to China's throat in terms of any new trade, etc. negotiations. That creates potentially 'positive' press for Trump spinning this as his new tough approach, all while devastating our environment and selling off the resources for huge profits.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-01/26/c_135047313.htm
BEIJING, Jan. 26 (Xinhua) -- China's dependency on imported oil exceeded 60 percent for the first time in 2015 and is expected to rise further this year, according to an industry report released Tuesday.

Actual oil consumption rose 4.4 percent last year, up 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier, bringing the proportion of net imports in total oil consumption to 60.6 percent, said a report released by the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) Economics & Technology Research Institute.

In 2016, the oil dependency rate will go up to 62 percent and oil demand will grow 4.3 percent, as car ownership increases, urbanization advances and the state boosts oil reserves, said Qian Xingkun, deputy head of the institute.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-crude-imports-idUSKCN0YE0KB
Russia was China's largest crude oil supplier for a second month this year, customs data showed on Monday, with shipments in April surpassing imports from Saudi Arabia and hitting a record high as demand from independent refiners remained strong.

Crude imports from Russia surged 52.4 percent in April from a year ago to reach 1.17 million barrels per day (bpd), topping the previous record of 1.13 million bpd in December.