Trump administration is complete insanity and the markets are in a fantasy land: Stockman

[BigBearJohn]

Last edited Mon Feb 13, 2017, 05:02 AM - Edit history (1)

Stocks are booming under President Donald Trump, but long-time critic David Stockman warns traders are living in a "fantasy land" that can't last —and Trump's policies will derail the market for years to come.

The former Reagan administration OMB director appeared on CNBC's "Futures Now"last week to emphasize that Trump has become seemingly distracted by issues other than his proposed economic agenda.

That should be a particular point of worry for investors, who Stockman argued have been far more optimistic about Trump's presidency than might be warranted by the facts.

In other words, while all three major market indexes continued to hit record highs last week, the former Reagan aide sees the current market rally as moot and not reflective of the current political climate.

"What's going on today is complete insanity," said Stockman. "The market is apparently pricing in a huge Trump stimulus. But if you just look at the real world out there, the only thing that's going to happen is a fiscal bloodbath and a White House train wreck like never before in U.S. history." (Emphasis added)

MORE: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/12/trump-administration-is-complete-insanity--and-the-markets-are-in-a-fantasy-land-stockman.html

[burrowowl]

1. Especially with

countries withdrawing their Bonds

[Alice11111]

16. Crazy and the futures are up for tomorrow!

Out of touch. Heart 4 Big Bear.
I have tbills, but can't sell now

[pbmus]

2. We will see how the Big Con handles it...

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[NewJeffCT]

10. It will be everybody's fault but his own

Obama, Clinton, China, Mexico, Canada, Janet Yellen, Nordstrom, Saturday Night Live, somebody on his council of economic advisers, the treasury secretary, etc.

[Alice11111]

17. Thanks. We need some laughs.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

3. I am extremely worried.

I have investments that are a significant part of my retirement income. I am very worried. What will probably save me is that about 40% of those investments are in annuities, that I hope to start collecting from in about 8 years.

As for Social Security, I will start collecting on my own account in about 18 months. At present, I'm collecting as a divorced spouse. When I start collecting my own, it will be several hundred dollars more than I currently get. My former spouse is younger than I am, and I can only hope that he lives until age 70, starts collecting then, and promptly dies. That will maximize my own benefit. But I'm not counting on it.

Meanwhile, I keep on looking at those annuities to bail me out.

[Hortensis]

19. Sounds like you'd do okay even at worst, Poindexter.

Maybe develop a fictional plan for that scenario that contains what you really need to be comfortable and happy. Then you can tuck that under your pillow to help you sleep better.

[NBachers]

4. I've got SS and my 401K. The 401's in supposedly stable low-yield, but I may want to find a more

bear-market proof fund group if I can.

I'm 68; I'll work past 70 if I can, but I know I'll need to start collecting in a coupla years. I'm feeling a bit shaky here.

[Progressive dog]

5. Stockman wants to go back to good

old fashioned Reaganomics. "Good" was sarcasm.
But, the psychopath and his enablers in Congress, are making quick progress towards another great recession, or worse.

[radical noodle]

6. Wasn't Stockman the one who

quit Dubya's administration due to his fiscal irresponsibility?

[calimary]

13. Yeah, and then he wrote a book about it.

Which was the first time anyone heard of such terms as "Rosey Scenario" and "the Magic Asterisk."

THAT'S what reaganomics was built on. A genuine house of cards. They never did get the numbers to work. Stockman finally admitted it. So they used tricks. He called it a "Rosey Scenario" that nobody in the reagan White House seriously believed. They knew it was mostly bullshit. The "Magic Asterisk" was indeed an asterisk they used in their budget computations. The ONY way the could make the numbers work was to add in the "Magic Asterisk" that made sure everything added up. You just add an asterisk, and see? It's done! No muss, no fuss, and it works!

Problem is, the "Magic Asterisk" never had a value assigned to it. And "Rosey Scenario" was completely unrealistic. And they never told us what they were all smoking...

But it sounded good and was easy to sell, and they had TONS of customers willing to buy it and believe in it wholeheartedly. Smoke, meet mirrors.

[radical noodle]

14. Ah, yes!

I thought that was the same. Thanks for the info.

[Alice11111]

18. Thanks for explaining

[ProfessorGAC]

7. What Would He Know?

He was wrong about EVERYTHING between 1978 and 1998. Now, he's a sage? I don't think so.

Besides, a good portion of the gains to those indices was recovery from the disaster that were Bushanomics. So, the huge 11% per year gains under Obama were destined to be good, but not incredible, 6 to 7%, but the market rapidly recovered some intrinsic value when adults were running Washington.

That means that these continued gains are an extension of the last 8 years not the last 3 weeks.

Stockman is a moron.

[NewJeffCT]

11. good points, but I would add

that Oil, Gas and Construction stocks are increasing in anticipation of ExxonMobil running State, Russian sanctions going away and some kind of infrastructure stimulus happening.

Of course, if the stimulus is huge tax cuts for big corporations getting to put their name on projects (i.e., the Trump ExxonMobil Bridge... the Trump Wal-Mart Airport) and creates only a handful of new jobs and the economy goes into the tank, then the market will tank as well. (And, this sort of "stimulus" runs up the deficit and creates and inflation risk)

And, if there is a war with Iran, gas prices go through the roof and it hurts the economy. If anything else bad happens in the middle east, it will make the post Katrina price surge look mild.

[Ligyron]

8. Yeah, I'm getting out of stocks this week actually.

Stockman is a moran but I'll take my winnings to this point and be happy with doubling my money.

There's no predicting exactly when the market will tank, but it will and I'm too old to just ride it out as in previous crashes.

[czarjak]

9. Cataclysmic failure...

On the way.

[Chasstev365]

12. So what should I do?

60 Bonds, 40 Stock? Bank account for the time being? Under the mattress?

Any suggestions?

[Wounded Bear]

15. The bubble is inflating...