Warning - Trump will likey have a military "victory" to claim within months

[karynnj]

Though he clearly did not have a plan to fight ISIS, the timing is such that Trump and Tillerson will claim they changed policy and have turned the losing war against ISIS around. Last year, with the election noise, there was little coverage of the slow but steady success the Obama coalition was having. Additionally, people's perception of the fight against ISIS was conflated with the Syrian Civil War, where HRC was the most hawkish and Bernie Sanders' was the closest to the real Obama policy. However, the discussion of actual effort against ISIS was reduced to not saying "Islamic terrorism" and what you called the enemy.

I would bet that the majority of Americans do not know that since 2014 the US led in creating a 68 nation coalition and that that coalition has had major success in pushing back ISIS. In addition, I doubt anything is known about the followup effort to restore governance by local people, to demine (led by Norway and the US),and to rebuild the areas taken back. The coalition intentionally had the local people lead the fighting and other local people reestablish governance. This is 180 degrees from shock and Awe which would win land quickly, but not solve the systemic problems.

Before Obama left office, the Pentagon had forcast that the coalition would reclaim all of Mosul in three months and Raqqa in six months. Yesterday, there were articles that Rex Tillerson had invited 68 nations to continue the coalition. Apparently, the State Department updated its info on the coalition - changing ISIL to ISIS and eliminating the names of Obama and Kerry, who created the 68 nation coalition. Independent coverage - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-isis-rex-tillerson-us-secretary-state-68-nation-meeting-coalition-next-moves-washington-a7621131.html Washington Post coverage -https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-administration-inviting-more-than-60-countries-for-strategy-session-on-countering-isis/2017/03/08/80ea2468-0452-11e7-ad5b-d22680e18d10_story.html?utm_term=.2d89621454cd

Before Trump took office, the international coalition had regained at least 62% of the land held in Iraq and 30% of the land held in Syria. At the same time, both Russia and Syria prioritized fighting the Syrian civil war, not ISIS. (note this is a November 2016 estimate and both those percents would have been higher - especially as half of Mosul was won back as well as many small towns in that region since then. ) http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-islamic-state-daesh-funding-iraq-syria-territory-losses-oil-air-strikes-icsr-report-antiquities-a7586936.html#gallery As the Indenpendent link indicates, in addition to land, the coalition had greatly impacted the resources that ISIS could draw on.

Summary, I think in the near future, Trump will be able to announce that his coalition has captured all the land in Iraq that ISIS captured. Soon afterward, he may be able to claim that ISIS controls no land in either country. These are both accomplishments thatderive from the careful planning of Obama's team, including Brett McGurk, who is one of the few holdovers. What few will admit is that Trump is likely to follow Obama's plan - http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/02/27/who-invented-trump-s-isis-plan-obama.html Even before that, expect many to praise Tillerson for successfulling pulling together a strong coalition of 68 countries ... imagine how much better Obama would have been had Kerry pulled together a coalition like that ..... (which, of course, he did and the rest of the world sees it that way!)

On one hand, I hope that the effort goes as well as was projected before Trump came in. On the other hand, I hope that that victory does not help Trump on unrelated issues -- if his popularity rises. I also hope he is cautious (though I do not think that likely) in claiming victory -- as while losing a caliphate (or land to control) is a big deal -- there will be attacks in their name.

PS I do not worry about history - the actual plans, goals etc of the 2014 coalition are in international documents and memories. The values and ideas of the Obama team contributed to the plans and influenced the other people involved -- as they influenced the Obama team. What does worry me is that Trump is pretty likely to get his "MIssion Accomplished" moment -- that in the moment did help Bush, until it was clear that he started a civil war.

[nikibatts]

1. We have been labeled "invaders" in Syria. I would not be so quick to say we will have victory

anywhere. Iraq is a death trap waiting to happen.

[anneboleyn]

5. Also, people will NOT like the "boots on the ground" aspect of the plan that will put our troops

right in the middle of a war involving multiple powers, including Russia and Assad's forces, the Turks, etc. Plus, as the military types on CNN and even Fox are pointing out, what happens AFTER a certain city falls to US forces?

Nobody wants us to stay in Syria and attempt to nationa build again, especially Assad and Russia. It would be a total no-go. So the entire effort would be a Phyrric victory, and once we left whatever we were holding would fall to other forces. I don't think Trump would get anything good out of all that except for maybe a day or two of talking points and among his most died-hard supporters who worship anything he does anyway.

[karynnj]

6. I think he is crazy to introduce trrops in Syria

I think the Iraq side might actually work as long as the Iraq PM (al - Abadi) works with the Sunnis, not in ISIS, to show them that their interests will be considered. Abadi also will need to insure that he works with the Kurds. So, much that the international coalition has tried to do in establishing good governance in recovered areas was with the intent to help Iraq avoid things falling into civil war again. I have no idea how well that actually worked - as the things I read mostly were speaking of what each country committed to do to help.

Syria, on the other hand, is a nightmare with something like 6 conflicts happening simultaneously and it hurts my head to even think of how it could ever be put back together or to get to anything approaching peace.

[underpants]

2. I posted the same this morning. Less detailed though. ISIS has always just been a matter of time

and yes the Obama moves have moved up the clock.

ISIS was slightly different than the other type operations (Taliban alQaeda) in that they have tons of funding, mostly Saudi royal family money. They were going to wilt due to staying in a fight without a rotation for too long. Trump is going to have this happen simply due to timing much like Cuba was bound to change/open during Obama's time because Castro wasn't going to last forever.

[lisa58]

3. Who says he has months?

[karynnj]

8. I am willing to bet that he has -- even if we prefer he would return to reality TV

Even if good proof was found that he did something that would mean that he should be impeached - and it was damning enough the House and Senate Republicans agreed, it would be more than months.

[smirkymonkey]

4. He is just itching to show his might militarily.

That is what frightens me the most about him. He WILL escalate the situations we are in and most likely create new ones..

[hunter]

22. Maybe as Reagan invaded Grenada.

If I lived in a tiny poorly defended nation I'd be a little worried about Trump's bad temper.

[KittyWampus]

7. DU'er Grantcart predicted Putin will help Trump look good in Syria.

[karynnj]

9. I hadn't seen that, but remember grantcart, who I haven't seen recently

Glad that he is back.

[anneboleyn]

10. See karynnj's post. Putin can't control all of that plus our objectives and Russian objectives are

not the same. Even if Pooty wants to help his Russian plant, he has the mess described by karynnj to confront and that is a HUGE can o'worms.

[blm]

11. karyn, can we share this at other sites so it spreads?

You really did a solid job here and I would hate for it to be lost in all the noise.

[karynnj]

12. Thanks, BLM

Be my guest to take it anywhere you want -- and to edit or add to it if you have more. I have to admit, that of all the issues that I read of or followed in the last 4 years, ISIS and Syria were the ones I found it hard to stay interested in. I do remember also that the US insisted that they would help and would build a coalition, but they insisted that Iraq use the elections they just had and form a more inclusive government than Maliki had.

One observation that I alluded to was that there was a huge amount of discussion about the need to quickly return life to recaptured areas and re-establish governace. I was fascinated by some of the details - such as the US and Norway pairing up in Iraq and Colombia to demine areas where landmines were put in place as the bad guys left. I was struck by my memory of the 9 or so hearings Kerry had on Afghanistan as Obama was working out his policy. Kerry's comments then spoke of how even though the US and the coalition could win any area where they fought, it was for nought if they could only keep it as long as they stayed. He quoted some of the experts recommending that we needed both local people who could defend areas we won back and local people who could be seen as providing good governance. I never heard Kerry (or anyone else) note that similarity. My take is that that concept which was informed by Kerry's Vietnam past and his hearings, might have led him to be a proponent for trying to do that in Iraq. If you think of it, this goes back to the US strongly pushing Iraq to form a ggovernment that could include the minorities (Kurds and Sunnis).

Aside -- what I really need to make sense of this is for it to be explained - along with many other things - in a memoir by the fantastic Secretary of State who really did create that coalition.

[blm]

14. I hope more people come to realize what a 'victory' like this would be used to protect Trump in the

long run…ala the 9-11 teflon given to Bush.

[TheDebbieDee]

13. I'm trying to condense all the info in your post so that I can post it in other groups...

I'm allowed to post the links to the news sources that you cited but I am not allowed to post a link to your post at my other groups.

[blm]

15. Thanks for 'getting' it, TDD

.

[dawg]

16. It will be a Pyrrhic victory.

Last edited Sun Mar 12, 2017, 04:25 PM - Edit history (1)

Like Yemen, only bigger.

The problems in the region defy a military solution.

[karynnj]

17. I agree wholeheartedly in the case of Syria

Claiming all the land back from ISIS is far easier than finding a diplomatic solution to Syria that allows the many different warring factions to lay down their arms and hostilities and find a path to coexist peacefully.

The sad thing is that Obama's effort was to slowly work out some of those tangles. I hope that on the Iraq side, after ISIS is defeated that Iraq manages to have an inclusive government that respects the Sunnis and Kurds as much as the majority Shia -- even if it needs to make those regions autonomous.

On Syria, nothing was more depressing than listening to Kerry sobberly listing the number of fights simultaneously happening at the same time there -- and knowing that there are few people more inclined to be optimistic.

Note that I intentionally referred to MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. The reason is that - in fact - the problems quickly got worse and have continued to worsen pulling more and more of the area into chaos. However, in the the media -- Bush was praised at that point and the CW was that we had won. Here, my concern is that Trump's popularity is important as mid terms near. If he continues to go down, Republican legislators will be more independent and more concerned he could pull them down. The scary thing is if his numbers improve as things like health care get voted on.

[blm]

18. Ignoring this reality now will be devastating for Dems by the fall.

.

[karynnj]

19. Add in that Trump intends to blame the Democrats on health care - no matter what happens

If the Republicans fail to pass a plan - our fault and we are to blame for Republican sabatoge of ACA.

On the economy, he is already spinning that he fixed it - yes, in one month! This after creating a narrative that Obama had a bad economy. (I just returned from the grocery - where the cover of the NE tells me that he is cleaning up Obama's mess. (Don't know the content as I can not touch that garbage!)

[Demsrule86]

21. Let him...and we run on vote for us because the only reason you have health care is that the GOP is

waiting until after the mid-term We can win...why so defeatist?

[karynnj]

23. I agree that that is a good strategy, but think we need to work now to get our narrative out

It happens to be the truth, but Trump will have the Republican echo chamber that has already been demonizing Obama and everyone in his administration.

[Demsrule86]

20. Nah Trump is a dumb ass and will screw it up.

I wonder how Americans will feel when Syria uses nerve gas on our troops? One thing most GOP and Dem agreed on was no more wars...Trump is a chump.