Democrats Have a Path to Retake the House

[applegrove]

Democrats Have a Path to Retake the House

https://politicalwire.com/2017/03/16/democrats-path-retake-house/

"SNIP........

By Taegan Goddard152 Comments
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Democrats have a path to winning a House majority next year, but that possibility is highly dependent on variables over which they have effectively no control. That’s the takeaway from our initial ratings of 2018’s House races, a list that is heavy on Republicans who start this cycle only mildly endangered.”

“Historically, the president’s party loses ground in a midterm: That’s what happened in 36 of the 39 midterms since the Civil War. American political history is dotted with elections where the president’s party suffered big losses because of a bad economy (1930, 1938, 1958, and 2010 are all examples), unpopular wars (1950, 1966, and 2006), scandal (1974), or other factors.”

“If a wave is developing, we may be able to track it through President Trump’s approval rating (particularly if it falls into the 30s) and/or the House generic ballot. Watch to see if the latter metric, which measures national opinions on how voters intend to vote in their local House race, starts to show a significant Democratic lead approaching double digits in polling averages. Those are the kinds of numbers it’s probably going to take for Democrats to crack the GOP’s House majority, which is protected both by the power of incumbency and by favorable district lines in many key states.”

..........SNIP"

[Sherman A1]

1. One can hope,

But I remain skeptical.

[Merlot]

4. Your skepticism is well founded

I remember when democrats were going to take the presidency, the senate, and had a path to the house as well. That was only 6 months ago.

[BannonsLiver]

7. Nobody thought Dems would win the House

And the chances to win the senate were tenuous at best, even before election day.

[Merlot]

13. Sure they did. Lots of people thought dems would win senate

and they were talking about closing the house gap.

That's what most the polls were saying. I'm not saying I believed it would actually happen but I do remember a lot of polls and talking heads saying it could happen.

And the media was pretty sure HRC was going to win.

[BannonsLiver]

14. The house and senate are not the same

My point was that nobody was talking about the Dems having a serious shot at taking the house at any point in the cycle, and by the end of September, and into mid October, it was clear their senate hopes were also beginning to fade. Or at least it was clear to those of us paying attention.

I never mentioned Hillary's chances so not sure what the point of bringing that up was.

[Cosmocat]

9. It would be a stretch if you didnt have gerrymandering, voter suppression and the russians

Rachel Maddow spoke in depth on how, because all of the focus is on 45 so it gets over looked, Russians did a LOT of damage to dem house races last year ...

I was like, WTF? Bad enough gerrymandering and rampant voter suppression.

[msongs]

2. time for dems to reintroduce the medicare for all act eh? if they remember that far back nt

[Demsrule86]

3. Not now...there can be no hint that Obamacare is not good enough...only that it needs to be tweaked.

When we get back in power and that means the White House too...we introduce a public option...or do medicare for over 50. We must be very careful to keep what we have because we are not getting single payer in for at least four years.

[SaschaHM]

5. This. It's time to let the Republicans set themselves on fire with healthcare policy.

Let's not distract from that shitshow with a bill of our own that's not ever going to see a vote.

[Demsrule86]

6. Exactly right ...it gives them something to attack us on. nt

[BannonsLiver]

8. Damn right they do, despite the Eyore sentiments at the top of the thread

It's going to be an interesting 2018.

[gratuitous]

10. Here's my suggestion to enhance that possibility

Send a big wheel Democrat to Nashville. This weekend. Hold a campaign-style rally, and deliver a barn-burner speech detailing Democratic policies and programs. Compare them as favorably as possible to the shitstorm/dumpster fire currently being peddled by President Trump. Spend an hour or two talking with the local media outlets, print and electronic, and talk up how much better things would be for Tennesseeans under Democratic governance.

Every time Lord Littlehands has another ego-boosting rally, follow him with one of your own. Pump up local candidates (have them appear alongside Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Warren or someone else the locals have seen on the teevee), particularly in those districts where people are voting Republican, and demonstrate (1) the damage they're doing to themselves by electing Republicans; (2) that Democrats will do better (much better) by them; and (3) generate a little local excitement for Democratic programs, bucking up the often lonely battlers on the front lines of the political fights.

[lame54]

11. If there is still voting by then

[crazycatlady]

12. start with GA-06 and MT-AL

[Wounded Bear]

15. K & R ......no time for excess skepticism...

remember, we gained seats in both the House and Senate in '16. Look it up.

If we broaden our strategy and outreach, there are flippable districts out there. Hell, I think there are a couple in my blue state.

There have to be some out there in Trumpland. Surely Trump's and the R's assholiness will lead to some disaffection amonst the huddled masses.