KC Star: Repub poll had Repub candidate only +1 in KS-04

[LonePirate]

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article143857629.html

45 won the district by almost 30 points in November. The mood of the electorate has changed since then, to say the least.

An internal poll circulating among Republicans showed Estes up by only a single point as of last week. Trump’s call suggests the urgency of the situation. “Ron Estes needs your vote, and needs it badly,” the president says in the call to voters.

[Tatiana]

1. I think it's great that they are running robocalls with Trump's voice.

I'm not sure they are overly fond of Trump in this district right now. I suspect many voters are having buyer's remorse and Thompson is a stellar candidate (and pretty darn liberal for Kansas!). These regretful voters won't feel bad voting for Thompson.

Also, I think the Libertarian candidate will take away votes from Estes.

This race is going to be so close. I pray Thompson can pull it out.

[pangaia]

2. I sent Thompson $5.

And you know what?

I got a very, very kind thank you and.. guess what.;. NO REQUEST FOR MORE $$$$$$$$

That is THE FIRST time that has ever happened...

Shit man, you send something to ACT BLUE and your inbox is swamped!!!

It's almost as bad as CARGURU !!! LOL!!

[Tatiana]

3. Same here.

Very gracious thank-you message along with a couple of updates on campaign events taking place down the home stretch. I really wish I had time to do some door-to-door canvassing, but he seems to have a lot of local volunteers.

I wish we could have given him more financial support from the national party apparatus. I think they were latecomers in realizing this race was competitive. In early March, a poll had Estes leading Thompson 56-32. Pretty sure things have tightened considerably, which is why Republicans are now dumping money into this race, as well as having the SCROTUS and VP make robocalls on Estes's behalf.

[Dawson Leery]

4. kick

[grantcart]

5. Kick

[Sienna86]

6. And they think a robo-call from 45 helps the matter?

Tone deaf, in my opinion.

[titaniumsalute]

7. Dump wins by 30 points

I don't see the Dem winning per se, however if he loses by only 5 to 10 that will be a HUGE sign to the right that 2018 will be real fun. That means a 20 to 25 point erosion from Dump's winning in that district.

[Shrek]

8. I live in this district

I don't have any sense about the accuracy of this poll.

I will say that the race "feels" a lot closer than it has since the late 70s. Just based on advertising and the yard signs I see I think it'll be more competitive than usual.