Democrats Don't Need Trumps Voters To Retake The House

[ehrnst]

"Stop me if you’ve seen a headline (or five) that proclaims something along the lines of: “Most Trump voters still support Trump.” Typically, the article includes quotes from Trump voters in Pennsylvania or Michigan. Sometimes it revolves around polling showing people don’t “regret” voting for Trump. The takeaway is usually: Trump still has the support of his base, which means Democrats haven’t cracked the Trump nut yet.

But here’s the thing: Democrats don’t need to crack that nut by 2018; Trump can hang on to most — if not all — of his base, and Democrats could still clean up in the midterm elections. Checking in with Trump’s supporters is worthwhile. But don’t mistake their level of satisfaction for a political prediction.

Let’s start with the basic fact that Trump won just 45.9 percent of the vote in 2016. That doesn’t make his victory any less legitimate — winning (the Electoral College) with less than a majority is still winning — but Trump has a smaller base than every president elected since 1972, except for Bill Clinton in 1992. Trump voters are not a majority.

More importantly for the sake of 2018, they don’t represent the majority of voters in the majority of congressional districts. Trump won more than 50 percent in 205 of 435 districts. If House Republicans won every district where Trump won a majority in 2016 but lost every other one, Democrats would control 230 seats. Among seats won by a Republican in 2016, Trump fell short of a majority in 40 districts. Democrats need to win only 24 of those to win control of the House."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-dont-need-trumps-voters-to-retake-the-house/

[dalton99a]

1. Don't waste time and money on them

[elleng]

2. Oh right!

[ehrnst]

5. How are we going to win over the confederate flag wavers, the militia types?

The ones that screamed, "build the wall" and post anti BLM memes all over FB...

If you have a theory, please share.

[elleng]

12. Not likely 'radicals' will 'come over,'

but LOTS are subject to seeing the real world around them; that's what got them to go over, their real world experience.

See this, as an example:

NY's 9th Assembly District Flips To Democrats; Pellegrino Defeats Gargiulo
Donald Trump won the Long Island district by 23 points.

https://patch.com/new-york/massapequa/9th-assembly-district-flips-democrats-pellegrino-defeats-gargiulo

AND

Democrats Just Flipped Seats In 2 Districts That Voted For Donald Trump
GOP candidates lose special elections in New York and New Hampshire.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democrats-win-two-elections_us_59250144e4b0ec129d3082d0?ncid=engmodushpmg00000003

[ehrnst]

15. That's going to produce results in districts that voted for Hillary, or were very close.

But not in deep red DT country.

[Hortensis]

16. Likeliy more who didn't vote are coming forward than

who voted but are switching. Need hard data on that, of course, but polls show rump voters are, as expected, holding loyal in extremely high numbers, whereas the numbers who didn't vote and regret it now are very significant.

Huge advantages cons have are their desire for conformity and formation into cohesive groups to fight threats from outside. If a conservative signer of the Declaration of Independence said something about hanging, instead of Franklin, it would have been more on the lines of "We must indeed all hang together because, most assuredly, doing anything but is out of the question."

[beachbum bob]

3. A unified democratic voting base can win everywhere, especially as

Trump supports shrinks to the 30% or less level

[crazycatlady]

13. I worry the Democratic base won't unify

THere will be too much infighting about how Candidate X is not progressive enough or will whine because Bernie endorsed Candidate A in the primary.

[beachbum bob]

17. If we can't be a big tent party then we deserve to lose and we all need th STFU

Pettiness will destroy America and our kids future.

[world wide wally]

4. A+. 100% !

[progressoid]

6. GET OUT THE FUCKING VOTE!!

[treestar]

7. Great, that means

we can pick the districts and go after those voters, rather than deplorables per se.

[ehrnst]

9. We can pick the districts that are flippable, that went Hillary in 2016. (nt)

[NorwayLover]

8. Ah, But I'm in the Mood to Kick a Little Ass

Sounds good to me.

I do think, though, that it would behoove all of us to swell the ranks anyway. If every registered Democrat were able to get just one other voter registered as a Democrat, it would be a game changer with lasting repercussions across the board.

[ehrnst]

10. I don't care what they do or don't register as.

As long as they vote Democrat.

There may be lots of unaffiliated voters, but most voters vote one party most of the time.

Welcome to DU!

[NorwayLover]

11. Yes

That's my plan!

[crazycatlady]

14. NOt all states have partisan registration

And it is a very inaccurate measure. There are many 'Demosaurs' that registered as Democrats ages ago yet today might as well wear white hoods.

AS far as new voters--- convincing Gen Z (born roughly 1995-2010) as they come of age is key.

[NurseJackie]

18. I'm delighted to see this. It's good to have confirmation that....

... contradicts all the handwringers and naysayers.

[JustAnotherGen]

19. +1

[JustAnotherGen]

20. Great article

This:

Trump won more than 50 percent in 205 of 435 districts. If House Republicans won every district where Trump won a majority in 2016 but lost every other one, Democrats would control 230 seats. Among seats won by a Republican in 2016, Trump fell short of a majority in 40 districts. Democrats need to win only 24 of those to win control of the House."

24. We can do it.