There may be another Don to worry about late next week-An African Tropical Wave to Watch Dr. Jeff

[malaise]

Dr. Jeff Masters
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/african-tropical-wave-to-watch
<snip>
A tropical wave located at 12 pm EDT Sunday near 11°N 34°W, about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, was headed west at about 10 mph. This system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by the time it arrives in the Lesser Antilles Islands next weekend.

Satellite images on Sunday morning showed that the wave was in the early stages of organization, with a slowly increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that had only a little spin. Development was being retarded by dry air, thanks to a presence of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) just to the north. Wind shear was low to moderate, 5 – 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were just warm enough for development, near 27°C (81°F)--about 1°F above the seasonal norm.

Our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the European, GFS and UKMET--all showed some slow development of the system over the next five days, with the UKMET model clearly predicting development into a tropical depression. Over 90% of the 20 members of the 0Z Sunday GFS ensemble forecast predicted development over the next 7 days, with several of the forecasts predicting a hurricane by next week. The 0Z Sunday European model ensemble forecast was less aggressive, with about 40% of its members predicting development over the next 7 days.

The models had a strong ridge of high pressure steering the system west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday. By next Sunday, a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast may create a weakness in the ridge, allowing the storm to move on a more northwesterly path, potentially putting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast at risk late next week. That is a long way in the future, though, and we’ll just have to wait and see if the wave will fight off the dry air and develop before we worry about long-range landfall threats. The next Atlantic “Invest” will be labeled 94L, and the next name of the list of storms is Don.

[Best_man23]

1. I read Dr. Masters Blog during storm season.

He's spot on with his forecasts better than 80% of the time. Real meteorologist, unlike many of the talking heads on local TV who report weather.

[malaise]

2. I take him seriously

The thing is he takes the best forecasters with the best models seriously as well.

I also watch the graphics and tracks posted on their comments page but have learned to ignore most of the folks wishing for storms.

[malaise]

5. From NOAA

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure has remained nearly stationary about
650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although shower
and thunderstorm activity is disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for some development of this
system later this week while the disturbance moves westward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Leith]

3. The Most Dangerous Storm Named Don Has Already Hit

Atmospheric confluences are keeping it in place doing unprecedented (unpresidential?) damage and it will continue to do so for the unforeseeable future.

[malaise]

4. Isn't that the truth?

[malaise]

6. Word is this may be named today - will this Don be a disaster or a dud

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the well-defined
low pressure system located about 750 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing winds to near tropical storm force
close to the center. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and
become a little better organized over the past several hours and, if
this recent development trend continues, a tropical depression or a
tropical storm could form later today or on Wednesday. The low is
expected to move slowly westward today, and then move toward the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph by tonight and on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Vinca]

7. Has Don turned the lights on at FEMA yet?

The "deep state" should be prepared.