2018/2020 US Senate Election-Could Democrats repeat what they did in 2006/2008 in 2018/2020?
In 2006 US Senate Election cycle, Bush43-R State Democratic incumbents in FL (Nelson-D),NE (Nelson-D),NM (Bingaman-D/Bush lost it in 2000 but won it in 2004),ND (Conrad-D),and WV (Byrd-D) won re-election and Democrats picked up 6 additional seats, 2 from Kerry States (PA and RI)4 from Bush States (MO,MT,OH,and VA)-Democrats ended up with 51 seats.
In 2008 US Senate Election cycle, McCain-R State Democratic incumbents in AR (Pryor-D),LA (Landrieu-D),MT (Baucus-D),SD (Johnson-D),and WV (Rockefeller-D) won re-election and Democrats picked up 8 additional states, 7 from Obama states (CO,MN,NH,NM,NC,OR,and VA) and 1 from McCain state (AK)-Democrats ended up with 59 seats.
2018-There are 10 Trump State Democratic incumbents up for re-election -FL (Nelson-D),IN (Donnelly-D),MI (Stabenow-D),MO (McCaskill-D),MT (Tester-D),ND(Heitkamp-D),OH (Brown-D),PA (Casey-D)WV (Manchin-D),and WI (Baldwin-D)
Due to Trump and McConnell's unpopularity, Democrats will hold onto most or all of those seats.
Nelson (FL) wins re-election against Scott or any other top tier Republican challenger.
Donnelly (IN)victory is determined by who the Republican nominee is going to be
Stabenow (MI) wins re-election
McCaskill (MO)victory is determined by who the Republican nominee is going to be
Tester (MT)wins re-election but margin of victory won't be like Baucus's
Heitkamp (ND)wins re-election but margin of victory won't be like Conrad or Dorgan's
Brown (OH)wins re-election
Casey (PA)wins re-election
Manchin (WV)wins re-election but margin of victory won't be like Byrd or Rockeller's.
Baldwin (WI)win re-election but margin of victory will be like Feingold's 2004 victory.
Democrats could pick up 2 to 4 additional seats. AZ,NV,TX (see VA 2006)and UT (if Matheson-D runs) Democrats could end up with 52 seats.
2020-Democrats could get to 60 seats by picking up AK,CO,GA,IA,MT (if Bullock-D runs),NC,and TX (if Castro-D runs).and Collins (R-ME) becomes an Independent caucusing with Democrats.