Latest on Irma - 11 PM update - this one will demand attention

[NRaleighLiberal]

Look at the forecasted wind speeds toward the end of the update. I am not liking the projected path at all. Click the link below this sentence to see the latest graphical path.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/024456_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

000
WTNT41 KNHC 040233
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated a 25 n
mi diameter eye and maximum SFMR-observed surface winds close to
100 kt. That value will be retained for the official intensity.
Central core convection is beginning to become a little better
organized on satellite imagery and the upper-level outflow is
well defined. Given the favorable environment, Irma is likely to
strengthen some more over the next day or two. The official
intensity forecast follows the model consensus.

Based on center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, Irma has been
moving a little south of west or around 255/12 kt. A strong high
pressure ridge over the central Atlantic should steer Irma on a
west-southward to westward course over the next couple of days.
After that time, a turn toward the west-northwest is likely while
Irma nears the western portion of the ridge. There continues to be
a rather small cross-track spread in most of the track guidance
models, but there are some speed differences. The official track
forecast is roughly in the middle of the guidance and is just
slightly south of the previous NHC prediction.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.

KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands by
the middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough
surf and rip currents. Hurricane watches have been issued for
portions of the Leeward Islands and additional hurricane or tropical
storm watches or warnings may be required on Monday. Residents in
these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice
given by officials.

2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through
the upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and
the Bahamas. Residents in all of these areas should monitor the
progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. Tropical
storm or hurricane watches could be issued for the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have
on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 17.2N 51.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 16.7N 52.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 16.5N 54.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 16.8N 57.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 17.4N 59.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 19.3N 65.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 21.2N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.8N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[dalton99a]

1. Right now it looks like Florida?

Link to tweet

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. still so much uncertainty - but attention should be paid by many, many people

in a very wide swath

[catbyte]

5. Shit. It's looking less & less likely it's going to recurve out into the the Atlantic.

Where is Mar-a-Scamalot again?!?

I'll keep my fingers crossed for fellow DUers in Florida.

[Warpy]

11. Florida or the Carolinas

Only one forecast track has it going out to sea now.

Glad I don't live there no mo'.

[regnaD kciN]

12. And then?

Remember, Katrina first made landfall in Florida, crossed it, headed off into the Gulf, reintensified, and made landfall a second time in NOLA.

[Scurrilous]

46. Yep.

Luckily it was only a category 1 at the time it passed over Florida.

[mia]

18. Latest model

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&start=4980

[lpbk2713]

2. It doesn't look good for me.

I'm right below that L in FL.

Oh crap.

[superpatriotman]

4. Us too

Let's hope for the best and prep for the worst.

[shenmue]

6. I live north of Tampa

Yikes.

[lpbk2713]

7. I was breathing easier two days ago.

BayNews9 Weather said it was going to go between a high and a low pressure
system and head north off the Florida coast. Now I'm not so sure.

I'm in Lakeland.

[shenmue]

8. Keep safe

[superpatriotman]

9. Ft Lauderdale

Right on the coast

[lpbk2713]

13. I don't envy you.

Best of luck to you and yours.

[HAB911]

31. North Tampa here

will begin getting everything off the garage floor today. good luck to us all.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

10. Have we ever had two cat 4 hurricanes

hit this country back-to-back?

[csziggy]

16. 2005 - Dennis and Emily overlapped

Dennis July 4 – 13 Category 4 hurricane
Emily July 11 – 21 Category 5 hurricane

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

20. Thank you.

For some reason I don't recall either one. And I generally pay a lot of attention to such things, even though I live well outside potential hurricane areas.

[csziggy]

34. Katrina erased the memory of the other 2005 storms

As it did the previous year:

Hurricane Charley made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS), causing $15.1 billion in damage in the United States alone. Later in August, Hurricane Frances struck the Bahamas and Florida, causing at least 49 deaths and $9.5 billion in damage. The most intense storm, and the one that caused the most damage, was Hurricane Ivan. It was a Category 5 hurricane that devastated multiple countries adjacent to the Caribbean Sea, before entering the Gulf of Mexico and causing catastrophic destruction on the Gulf Coast of the United States, especially Alabama and Florida. Throughout the countries it passed through, Ivan left 129 fatalities and over $23.33 billion in damage. The most significant tropical cyclone in terms of deaths was Hurricane Jeanne. In Haiti, torrential rainfall in the mountainous areas resulted in mudslides and severe flooding, causing at least 3,006 fatalities. Jeanne also struck Florida, inflicting extensive destruction. Overall, the storm caused at least $8.1 billion in damage and 3,042 deaths.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Atlantic_hurricane_season

The eyes of Charley, Frances and Jeanne all passed over my parents' home in central Florida. While they had limited damage - one limb hit their roof - eventually they had to take down many of the ancient live oaks that surrounded their house.

Now people most remember Ivan, but the three storms that hit the peninsula did a huge amount of damage, much of which can still be seen in some areas in snapped off trees. For several years there were a lot of blue tarp roofs since roofers could not keep up with the demand.

I was originally looking up the 2004 season but those storms were more spread out.

[NRaleighLiberal]

14. Lots of info on Weather Underground - link below - aims it at SC to NC, but still divergence

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-watches-leeward-islands-irma-chugs-west

[Not Ruth]

15. E V A C U A T E

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

21. Who, pray tell should evacuate at this point?

The possible tracks cover a very wide area.

[Lurker Deluxe]

23. Well ...

It would be a good experiment, would it not?

The greater Houston area is about 6.5 million people.

The greater Miami area is about 6 million people.

Evacuate the greater Miami area the only direction they can go, north. Pretty much the same many people have second guessed Houston about doing. Florida is about 21 million people, so I am sure there will be more than enough logistics ... gas/food/shelter to move just a little over 25% of their population about 600 miles north to the middle of Georgia, where they will be much safer.

Georgia, having a booming population of 10 million will easily be able to absorb that extra 6 million.

What you do if that storm manages to stay east of Florida and come ashore in Georgia could be a problem ...

I am sure all those who second guessed Houston will let us know, ahead of the storm, who needs to be evacuated and to where. Well, actually I am pretty sure they will show up about two days after the storm and second guess anyone who actually did anything, that is pretty much how it works.

[obamanut2012]

29. lololololololololol

[csziggy]

35. If Miami needs to be evacuated, then so do all the other close coastal cities.

If Miami is directly hit, then the storm could go directly across Florida and head for Fort Myers and the other densely populated communities along the west coast. Or, as some of the current models predict, Irma could go up the length of the peninsula, which means evacuating not only the coastal cities and towns, but pretty much the majority of the population of Florida.

If the second happens, the evacuees from South Florida will have clogged the roads long before the people of Central Florida attempt to evacuate. I could see I-95 and I-75 being parking lots even if both the north and south lanes were routed north. And you do NOT want people stuck in cars on I-95 with a huge hurricane headed their way. Too much of that highway is in low lying areas that could be affected by storm surge and flooding.

The best that can be done is to evacuate those in areas mostly likely to be inundated with storm surge - that will still be a staggering number of people along any Florida coast. The center of the state is higher so less likely to flood and there people can shelter with their only ( ) worry being the winds.

Read the description of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane season when three severe storms hit the peninsula: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Atlantic_hurricane_season After Charley hit, there really were no good places to evacuate to for most people so they just sheltered in place.

[cwydro]

37. You're funny.

Wow.

[Not Ruth]

30. The people in the path

Pack up, gas up, drive a hundred miles inland. Most won't. Those who do, may not have been affected, but they with certainly be in less danger than those that are hit.

[Lurker Deluxe]

38. right now it is headed to Florida

Might be tough for people in south Florida to "drive a hundred miles inland".

Just saying.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

39. And just how many millions are in the path?

Florida alone has 21 million people.

And how many live in coastal Georgia? What about the rest of the Gulf Coast, which Irma might head to instead of up the eastern seaboard?

My point is that it's at least several days too early to start evacuating.

And as for the suggestion that central Georgia could easily accommodate the 6 million residents of Miami (as if the other 15 million citizens of Florida don't count), how exactly would those millions be accommodated? Mandate that people open their homes to refugees? Put up tent cities in the parking lots of big box stores?

It is true we need to have a better infrastructure to deal with such storms, as they are only going to increase in coming years.

But one huge issue with evacuations has been that at times in the past people have observed an evacuation order, then the storm missed their location, or fizzled out, and in hindsight it was clear evacuation was necessary. So next time they ignore those orders.

In short, there's no real solution, as we're not going to abandon our coastlines, just as we're not going to abandon earthquake prone California. And speaking of earthquakes, some day there will be a big one in some relatively unexpected place, such as on the New Madrid fault (and read up on the earthquakes that took place there in 1811-12 if you want a good scare) or Boston or NYC or some other place on the east coast that has had almost no earthquakes in the past 300 years or so.

Face it. The planet is dangerous.

[Not Ruth]

40. No you can't evacuate everyone

Does that mean that no one should evacuate?

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

41. My point is that at this point there's a huge amount of uncertainty

as to the path of this hurricane. It is simply too soon to start formal evacuations.

Anyone who lives where hurricanes are likely should always have a plan, should have reasonable supplies, and so on.

And another thought: some years back when Houston had an evacuation (I think it was for Hurricane Rita but I may well be naming the wrong storm) they had the ones who had the farthest to go evacuate first. Which was completely insane. You evacuate the way a plane is off-loaded: the ones nearest the exit leave first.

I doubt very many cities have actual orderly evacuation plans in place. And even those that do probably never communicate them to citizens. I recognize that an evacuation drill, other than on the part of first responders, isn't going to happen, but good, well-publicized plans would be a start. Even then, my guess is that at least half of the people involved would somehow never learn of the plans, never notice the large signs that say EMERGENCY EVACUATION ROUTE. But it would be a start.

[Demtexan]

17. I used to look forward to fall.

Not now.

I remember waiting for Ike.

I got ready early.

Most people waited until the last minute.

Two weeks of no power.

[MFM008]

19. If I was a Floridian in its path

I would be content with pieces of mar- a- lego raining down in penny sized bits.

[mitch96]

22. Now THAT would be funny...

"Irma blasts Mar A Lago"!!!

Hey wait... I live 50 miles from there as the crow flies... ahhh too close thankyou...
m

[Awsi Dooger]

25. Not liking the more southerly updates

Seemingly every one shares that tendency.

I'm roughly 8 miles inland in Miami

[bluecollar2]

26. Checking in from South Florida

South of Miami, North of Homestead...

Goulds/Cutler Ridge area so a little inland.

Evacuation Zone C.

Elevation is 9' above sea level. Limestone that usually drains pretty quickly. Very little standing water after a good downpour

Getting ready. Most of the preparations are in the works. Will take today to enjoy the holiday and then spend next week battening down.

Hopefully this one will turn North at the last minute and she'll go back out to sea.

Andrew did a number on us.

Our grove is pretty mature now. Hope the winds don't tear us up like Andrew did.

[lpbk2713]

42. Homestead was ground zero for Andrew.

There wasn't much left of Homestead to put back together after it passed
through. I hope history doesn't repeat itself. Best of luck to you and yours.

[bluecollar2]

44. thanks

We've been through this before but it's never the same twice.

Hopefully everyone can stay sane and the worst will be some downed tree limbs etc.

A lot of the farm land around here has been sold off and the developers have been busy. We'll see how it goes.

[Awsi Dooger]

43. Best of luck in Cutler Ridge

Your area really got hit during Andrew. Nationally I think people associate landfall with Homestead but I distinctly remember watching CNN all night from Las Vegas and at landfall they announced the eye was headed smack toward Cutler Ridge. As a Miamian that meant immediate reference points like the Cutler Ridge Mall.

None of the groves or golf courses can take destruction like Andrew left. I used to play the Redland golf course frequently on Krome Avenue. Then Andrew wiped out all the trees and none of the doglegs were doglegs anymore.

[bluecollar2]

45. Cutler Ridge, Naranja, Perrine

Took a beating but Homestead got the mention with Andrew.

We were out of power until November if I recall correctly.

Hoping all the new concrete power poles and other upgrades will minimise the inevitable destruction.

Got plenty of gas, oil and spare chains for the chainsaw. Generator battery is charged up.

Shutters are ready to be put up.

Will use grove well as a water source if necessary...just filled up the main diesel tank earlier this summer so plenty of water available.

Bottled water aisles were empty at the local Publix this morning.

This may be the storm that ends this grove. The trees are very mature and may not survive another blow like Andrew.

[ms liberty]

27. I'm in NC, W/NW of Statesville. When Hugo came thru

We took a direct hit, and it was still at hurricane strength when it came thru, even way up here. I grew up on the west coast of Fla. so I've seen hurricanes all my life, and I do not like the look of this one for anyone. wherever it may end up going. If Irma keeps this up I will be making disaster plans myself.

[mitch96]

33. I think it's time for me to take a Vacation..

Maybe Asheville... Only 10+ hours from me.... Batten down the hatches and hit the road...
m,

[csziggy]

36. If you go to Asheville, don't stay at the Crowne Plaza

Just got back a week ago from a seminar there. My room flooded three times in four days because of worn out parts for the toilet - that they could not be bothered to replace. I couldn't move since the hotels were full of people there to watch the eclipse which was the day after the seminar ended.

Otherwise Asheville is a lovely city!

[mnhtnbb]

28. Not liking the looks of this, either, up the road from you!

Could be a devastating hit on Florida--or the Carolinas--and even 160 miles inland from Wilmington we could feel the effects.

[mcar]

32. Guess I'm off to get hurricane supplies

before the rush.