Latest probability cone for Irma

[Binkie The Clown]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/030008_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

(For some reason the image doesn't show up in the post.. You'll have to click the link.)

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

[Awsi Dooger]

1. It returned to prior indications, as I expected

The eye was over Cuba in the 5-day earlier today. Now north of Cuba, where it was earlier. Basically a one degree or 60 mile switch.

Now I hope there is a more pronounced move to the north than expected. That might push Irma slightly east of the Florida coast, which was forecast several days ago.

If not, I am leaning toward evacuating Miami and staying with relatives in Orlando.

[Binkie The Clown]

4. This forecast has it raking up the WEST coast of FLorida

[mia]

5. Safe travels, Awsi Dooger.

I'm in Miami too, but planning to stay.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Thank you mia

It's a tough call for me because I have an elderly aunt nearby. But she refuses to leave her dogs and cats behind even for a few hours.

If the track shifts more favorably I still might decide to stay. But tonight I filled up the gas tank in preparation to depart.

[Nay]

16. Awsi, get out now. I've been trying to get my brother to leave Clearwater, and that may

not even be in Irma's direct path. As a native Floridian, I say don't take chances with this one. I'd go to the Georgia hills, frankly.

[SunSeeker]

2. Scary. nt

[roamer65]

3. Very bad news if it goes into the Gulf of MX.

The water in there is too damn warm. It will hit cat 5.

[mia]

6. Thanks for the update.

I'm trying to stay up to see the European (ECMWF) model update at 2:00 am.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&start=6640

[bathroommonkey76]

7. Ventusky's website has it directly over Florida on Sept 11

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=31.5;-80.3;5&l=temperature&t=20170911/06

If I lived there I'd get the hell out of this monster storm's path.

[csziggy]

8. According to that, Sunday night at 11 the eye will be over my Mom's house

I wish it would turn north...

[bathroommonkey76]

9. Does she plan on evacuating?

This storm could be worse than Andrew.

Remember the western part of the eye is the most dangerous- I learned that after my sister's house was leveled during Fran in the 90s.

[csziggy]

10. She's not able to make plans.

Her dementia is severe. My sister will be working with the caretakers to decide what to do.

That house has been through a LOT of hurricanes. In 2004 three hurricane eyes went right over it. A branch fell on the roof and there was damage to the shingles. Since most of the trees that were close to the house have been taken out due to age and storm damage so there is less chance it will be damaged now.

It is probably safer for Mom and her caretakers to stay in that house than to attempt to evacuate. My sister and her husband might stay over - their house is in north Tampa and has a lot of trees around it, plus it is a lot closer to the coast.

[GeoWilliam750]

11. Any information on the scale of the storm surge?

[Lochloosa]

14. Depending on where you are. 30 ft.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Late tonight indications of a southwesterly shift

Many of the models agree. It could push Irma over Cuba and eventually into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The message board linked below is one of the sharper ones for guys who follow weather patterns closely. The thread is specific to Irma models:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&start=6700