North Korea/China/Russia's Joint Goal Regarding NK Missile Tests...
...is to provoke Trump into launching a limited, Syria-style cruise missile attack that would open the door to North Korea launching a roughly proportional attack on South Korea.
Why you may ask? Well, to let Trump continue to be Trump and reduce U.S. influence in the Pacific Rim. Trump is already half way there. He as already backed out of TPP. He has raised tensions with our closest allies in the region such as South Korea and Australia. He antagonized China from the get-go by recognizing Taiwan and suggesting that he would go further. Finally, he has already shown that he likes splashy military attacks such as Syria cruise missiles and dropping a huge bomb on virtually empty caves in Afgan while also showing less concern for collateral human casualties so long as they are not white.
So, North Korea is going to continue to shoot test missiles toward Japan every time Trump makes a threat of military action, while also floating the idea of a similar test launched at Guam. The Trump administration is going to continue to ratchet up their rhetoric, perhaps with Trump once again threatening to turn North Korea into a pool of slag in order to please his base and generate ratings if North Korea threatens the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been telling North Korea on the down low not to fire a test missile at Guam, because the U.S. will treat it as an attack.
Well, eventually, Trump is going to lose patience and announce then any missile test directed toward Guam will not be tolerated. He will back himself into a corner. At that time, North Korea will launch a test missile toward Guam and may or may not announce that it is a test depending on the wording of Trump's threat.
The Trump administration having seen such a test will need to either let it pass, thus forcing Trump to eat his words. Or, Trump will do something like launch cruise missiles at North Korea with the U.S. being the one that has initiated an actual military attack. With an actual military attack, North Korea will launch a limited, conventional artillery attack at South Korea designed to kill about a 1,000 people. Since the U.S. launched the first attack, China will then announce that it will stand by its original promise to defend North Korea.
China and Russia will then call for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council demanding a cease fire. North Korea will point to the actions of the U.S. in actually initiating an attack, and China and Russia will concur and demand that the U.S. end its provocation. Relations with South Korea will deteriorate with South Koreans demanding an end to the U.S. presence due to the casualties resulting from a U.S. response to a test missile directed at Guam. Likewise, countries throughout the Pacific Rim will not see the U.S. as a reliable ally.
Finally, North Korea will then offer to de-escalate if they have assurances that the U.S. will not continue to threaten military action toward North Korea, and Russia and China will support this. Meanwhile, the U.S.'s traditional allies will be hard pressed to stand with Trump given his prior willingness to take them for granted, including Germany, Mexico and the U.S.
Of course, the huge risk is that the limited military conflict outlined above might spiral out of control into World War III. This all would not be possible without a President Trump.
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