October 18, 2017 - Democrat Holds 14-Point Likely Voter Lead In Virginia, Quinnipiac University Poll

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Last edited Wed Oct 18, 2017, 01:13 PM - Edit history (1)

With strong support from women and non-white voters and a double-digit lead among independent voters, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam holds a 53 - 39 percent likely voter lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Party candidate Cliff Hyra has 2 percent.

Today's result compares to a 51 - 41 percent likely voter lead for Northam in a September 19 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

From October 12 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,088 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

Women likely voters back Northam 61 - 31 percent, with 2 percent for Hyra. Men are divided as 47 percent back Gillespie and 44 percent back Northam, with 2 percent for Hyra.

Independent voters back the Democrat 53 - 39 percent, with 3 percent for Hyra. Democrats back Northam 93 - 2 percent, with 2 percent for Hyra. Republicans back Gillespie 92 - 5 percent, with 1 percent for Hyra.

White likely voters are divided with 48 percent for Gillespie, 47 percent for Northam and 2 percent for Hyra. Non-white voters go to Northam 71 - 15 percent, with 3 percent for Hyra.

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2493

No Debbie Downers in my thread. Thank you in advance.


ON EDIT- FOR THOSE RESULTS TO BE REALIZED EVERYBODY HAS TO VOTE.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. Debbie Downer here. I live in Virginia. I will vote in the election, so I have a dog in this fight.

One should refrain from wearing rose-colored glasses after Labor Day. They went out of style in a big hurry the night of November 8 last year.

There were other polls released yesterday; Monmouth, Roanoke, and CNU. They came to different conclusions.

See:

GOP pulls ahead in VA Gov race. Statistically tied 48% - 47%

and

Poll: Gillespie, Northam deadlocked in Virginia governor race

That Monmouth poll of #VAGov assumes a markedly whiter and more Republican electorate than even the 2014 midterms. Huh.

Link to tweet

Three #VAGov polls today

CNU: Northam 48%, Gillespie 44%
Roanoke: 50% - 44%
Monmouth: 47%-48%

Link to tweet

Poll: Gillespie, Northam deadlocked in Virginia governor race

By STEVEN SHEPARD 10/17/2017 01:03 PM EDT

Three new public polls show next month’s Virginia gubernatorial race within the margin of error.

A Monmouth University poll — the most recently conducted of the surveys, all released Tuesday — shows Republican Ed Gillespie, a former Bush administration official and Republican National Committee chairman, in front of Democrat Ralph Northam, the commonwealth’s lieutenant governor, 48 percent to 47 percent.
....

The other two polls give Northam a slight lead. The Christopher Newport University poll shows Northam ahead of Gillespie, 48 percent to 44 percent. Hyra, the libertarian, is at 3 percent, and 5 percent are undecided. ... Northam’s lead has tightened from a week earlier, when the Democrat was ahead by 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent.

The Roanoke College poll gives Northam a slightly larger, 6-point advantage, 50 percent to 44 percent. Hyra is at 2 percent, and 4 percent are undecided. Last month, Northam led Gillespie by 4 points, 47 percent to 43 percent.
....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Looks like an outlier or shock poll

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html#polls

One should refrain from wearing rose-colored glasses after Labor Day. They went out of style in a big hurry the night of November 8 last year

Shit happens. Polls aren't infallible. Long shots win.

Here's an analogy.

When Buster Douglas beat Mike Tyson he was a 42-1 underdog. I suspect many managers of underdog fighters regale them with the tale of Buster defying the longest of odds, only to see them go in the ring and get their heads handed to them.

P.S. The nat'l and VA polls were spot on in 016.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. I will be voting. I will not assume that "he's so far ahead that there's no need for me to vote."

Check http://www.richmond.com/ , which is the website of the Richmond Times-Dispatch. I'b about to run out of my free articles there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I never/would never suggest somebody not vote, unless he or she is a Deplorable.

[LanternWaste]

8. Who is arguing the point you shouldn't vote?

Who is arguing the point you shouldn't vote?

[raven mad]

5. Go, Virginia!

One of the best states ever, and y'all are the seat of democracy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. For those results to be realized everybody has to vote.

[raven mad]

7. Truth, which is why I've been out walking in snow up to my knee and

putting out flyers for the Nov. vote here.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. What race is in Alaska?

[Wounded Bear]

10. Most polls tighten as election day nears...

But your GOTV efforts are the key, as always. The only way the deplorables can win is if Dems stay home.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I just spent a week in Williamsburg and followed this race

Watched the ads and carefully spoke to some locals. Nothing surprising...women are solidly on our side while the men back Gillespie without hesitation.

Most remarkable thing I witnessed was a Colonial Williamsburg reenactment between George and Martha Washington on the Charlton Stage. There was a question from a female audience member about frustration that her husband is so stubborn regarding how he uses his right of franchise. Keep in mind this was supposed to be 1781 and all questions and interpreter responses confined to that time frame.

The Martha character loudly and passionately proclaimed, "You have to teach them, madam. Teach them often. Teach them well. Otherwise we're all in peril."

The crowd reaction was immense. Women and some men cheered. I stood and applauded and so did at least a dozen others. The benches were packed and I'd estimate a crowd of 150. BTW, at virtually every tourist attraction the crowd is older and white. You seldom see any minorities. There was no question the Martha interpreter was injecting herself into 2016 and beyond. Frankly I was worried she would be disciplined for it.

While standing and applauding I intentionally scanned the fellow white men in the audience. With few exceptions stone faced and not having any of it.

Anyway, I'm confident about the Virginia race but the gap won't be as lopsided as the poll cited here suggests. The certainty is that Gillespie will lead the early returns and probably by heavy margin. Left leaning northern Virginia always reports late and last. No need to panic over early Virginia numbers. I've actually won some in-progress wagers on Virginia results when newcomers don't understand the natural dynamics and overreact to 7 or 8 PM.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I suspect Northam wins by low to mid single digits.

Trump is a drag.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. That's the margin I expect

West of I-95 with be bad for Northam, worse than historical norms or that the polling suggests. He'll make it up in northern Virginia, and independents will push it over the top in the late going.

The best thing about Virginia voting is that once the Democrat finally gets the lead late, it's not coming back. It's only going to expand. All the late reporting areas favor our side.

There is also a lieutenant governor's race that I followed while there but haven't looked at polling recently. With only one term in Virginia the second spot is more important than in other states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Wins on 11/8 in NJ and VA will be good for morale.

Harry Enten at 538 says Trump's approval rating are 30 points lower than what they should be given the state of the economy. If he's not getting credit now is it not realistic to expect they will continue to remain low.

Maybe he is just unlikable.