Why the Doom and Gloom Over Vacant "R" Seats?

[ProudLib72]

Why is everyone assuming that these seats are going to be filled with people even more radically right leaning than before? Is there no possibility of a moderate filling Flake's seat? Rs must understand that dealing with the devil isn't getting them anywhere. They can read and understand the polls, and they know that the crazy right is not polling so well even within their party. The best way to save the party is to fill seats with moderates who have backbones and will stand up to Dotard. They have two options: Go further down that rabbit hole into oblivion, or regain control over their party to make it start working again.

I'm not a fan of the GOP, but at least I realize that what is good for them right now is good for us as well. Just imagine seats filled with Rs who want to take down Dotard! Just imagine true bipartisanship instead of obstructionism! Imagine if both parties wanted to get to the bottom of Russian collusion, save our electoral system, and save the country!

Call it a pipe dream if you must, but I'm banking on the majority of Rs to come to their senses.

[bluepen]

1. Flake is ceding to Trumpism. Internal polls must be bad. No moderate

is going to win there.

[RhodeIslandOne]

6. He's probably worried about his polls

I doubt he's concerned about the general much.

[bluepen]

9. Yep. He had no reason to be concerned about the general in AZ.

[Bradshaw3]

17. Actually he did

Poll showed him down by 7 to Sinema last month;
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/350458-dem-leaning-poll-shows-flake-down-huge-in-primary-and-general

[bluepen]

19. It was the primary numbers dragging him down.

Had he won that, he wouldn’t have worried about the general.

[Bradshaw3]

20. Not true and doesn't make a lot of sense

Primary numbers bringing him down? What does that even mean? His approval was down overall but "primary numbers"? You said he had nothing to worry about in the general. Trailing by 7 points in the general to a sitting congressperson is something he would have and should have been worried about. I showed a poll demonstrating that, not just making statements.

[bluepen]

22. Its simple.

What does “primary numbers” mean? Exactly what this thread is about. The polling in the AZ Republican primary race. Republicans aren’t happy with him. This seems pretty obvious to me.

So when Republicans haven’t held their primary yet, and they aren’t happy with Flake, you’re more likely to see his numbers lower in the general. Which is why general election polling is almost worthless when you have a highly contested primary.

But if he won the primary, his numbers would almost certainly go up in the general because many, if not most, Republicans would vote for him if for no other reason than to keep the Democrat out and at that point he would have the party money and apparatus fully behind him.

This is Politics 101 stuff.

[Bradshaw3]

25. Simplistic isn't always true

If you read the story it had his numbers low already among voters. That would cost him in a primary but has nothing to do with having his numbers go up astronomically in the general, where he was down by SEVEN points - 47 to 40. His numbers would have gone up in a general but there is nothing to indicate it would be a no-contest as you asserted. Your blanket statement that he didn't have anything to worry about was ridiculous. He would have a hard race against Sinema. That's politics 201 stuff.

[bluepen]

30. Now that you put SEVEN in all caps, I see your point.

🙄

But seriously, read your first two sentences and see if you can spot the enormous flaw in your alleged logic.

Always good to grasp 101 before 201.

[Bradshaw3]

31. See if you can see the gargantuan flaw in ignoring reliable data in favor your own opinion

Basic to any pol sci is understanding the difference between data/facts and opinion. You have to grasp that first in order to carry on a credible conversation. Stating opinion as fact doesn't make it so and deflection doesn't work either. You made a statement that was provably false - I posted reliable polling that showed that and rather than admit it, you've chosen a weary internet path that isn't worth any more of my time. I've got data and you've got ... well.. I won't even call it logic, just an opinion, and desperate attempts to justify a statement that is simply untrue.

But at least you got that 47 is more than 40. That's a start.

[leftynyc]

10. Those polls are for republicans only

since it's a primary. We need to get good Democrats - the kind that can win in states like AZ to run and then we need to support them with all we have.

[bluepen]

11. Correct. And good luck to those in AZ.

[leftynyc]

13. I have a soft spot for AZ

since that's where I went to college. If a "moore" wins the con nod, we can do this.

[brooklynite]

2. No, there isnt

A moderate Democrat might win if the Republicans nominate a Todd Akins-type nutcase. There’s no chance a moderate R will win the nomination.

[Bradshaw3]

3. Kelli Ward is a nut and she was ahead in the polls

So I don't think your judgment on where repubs are in the polls is correct. Moore just won in Alabama. I think we here in AZ have a real chance to win with Kyrsten Sinema but it does scare me that someone like Ward or Moore in Alabama wins and then we have a Senate full of those types. They will bring down the government.

[sharp_stick]

8. Moore hasn't won anything yet

his opponent was another Puke who was supported by Trump. The special election in Alabama is in December and Jones is polling better than any Dem has in that fundie infested State in decades.

Kelli Ward has no opponent in the general yet so any polling is useless.

[Bradshaw3]

15. Moore won the repub primary so yes he has won something

and in Alabama that is tantamount to winning the general. Maybe Jones does have a chance but I'll believe it when I see it. Same thing was said about Ossof where Dems had a much better chance.

The polling on Ward was against Flake so it was not only not useless it likely had a strong influence on Flake's decision.

Edit to include poll from last month showing Ward with a 20 point lead:
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/350458-dem-leaning-poll-shows-flake-down-huge-in-primary-and-general

[sharp_stick]

4. The pukes

are going to start nominating nutjobs promoted by the likes of Bannon all over the country and it's a prime opportunity for us to win a shitload more seats in Congress and the Senate than we ever hoped.

I've given up on Alabama but Jones is polling a lot better than any Dem in decades. I think we have real chances to flip AZ and TN.

[lapfog_1]

5. Most of these vacancies are going to go to Trumpsters.

Arizona is not going to vote for a Dem... neither is Alabama... or Tennesee.

Our only hope is to take back the Senate and the House... otherwise Trump will kill everything, ACA, Medicare, Medicaid, social security, environment, education, just everything that we (and some more moderate republicans) have enacted over the last 100 years.

But I don't hope that the Trumpanzees like Moore in Alabama or crazy lady in Arizona are going to lose to a Democrat, nor will any moderate (relatively speaking) rise up to challenge these nutjobs.

[redstateblues]

16. That's the spirit!

Didn't Trump only win AZ by 3 points?

[FSogol]

7. Exactly, The sky is always falling somewhere on DU.

[FM123]

14. Yes, it feels like that from time to time.

[smirkymonkey]

24. It really gets kind of tiring after a while.

I'm getting weary of the doom and gloom all the time. I don't think it does us any good and can actually become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[FSogol]

26. I agree. I think people wallow in the despair to give themselves an excuse not to vote, or to

volunteer for campaigns, or to help out. After all, if it is hopeless, they can just whine.

When things look hopeless, we have to work harder.

[FM123]

12. I have mixed feelings.

I remember being happy when Trumpy won the Repub nomination because I was convinced that there was no way in hell America would send a crazy moron like him to the WH. I thought it was going to be a slam dunk for us Democrats. So I am in that place again - having the Trump crazies run against our Dems on paper seem like our only chance of taking back seats. But what if America puts even more crazies in office? Like that Roy Moore or Greg Gianforte? My fear is that the worse is yet to come.

[ProudLib72]

23. Yes, it feels like I'm having to duct tape my rose colored glasses to my head

This is a truly strange situation. R congress people are abandoning ship. R voters are voicing their disappointment with Dotard. And yet, these crazies keep coming out of the woodwork to win. I can understand Gianforte because that was towards the beginning of all the "winning", and Rs were feeling their oats so to speak. But remember how close the Ossoff/Handel race was? That was cause for hope. On the other hand, we now have Moore So I admit that it's very difficult to tell what is happening with the GOP.

I'm trying to play devil's advocate here, but in doing so I have to rely on the GOP having some common sense left.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Moderates won't be winning GOP primaries anywhere

I have an advantage because I frequent sports sites with political forums. Right wing nutcases dominate those sports forums. They despise any Republican who doesn't march along with Trump and/or Bannon. They use RINO and every related term, followed by curse words. They want no form of health care compromise. They want it gone. They cheer Trump every time he attacks the media or congresswoman Wilson.

To clarity, in forthcoming cycles a handful of Republican moderates might survive, only because the attack and emphasis will begin elsewhere. They'll start where the internal hate is strongest, just like we aimed at Lieberman first. But once the numbers dwindle everyone will be taken out, unless they conform.

[ProudLib72]

21. If that is true, and I am completely wrong in my assessment

Then there will not be a GOP in a decade, maybe less. What is Dotard at with R support, something like 70%? It's complete crap. You might be right about these other forums, but I suspect that the majority of Rs would feel more comfortable with moderates. In other words, the crazies are loud and obnoxious, but they are not the majority.

[Tatiana]

27. We can take Flake's seat. It will be close, but we can take it.

I really feel that Democrats will turn out in the next election. It will be a wave. Trumpism will motivate them to do what they didn't in 2016.

I also feel generally positive about the slate of Democratic Congressional challengers so far. It's a strong group.

[kimbutgar]

28. Too many right wing crazies in Arizona

All that heat, bakes Reich wing brains.

[onecaliberal]

29. Even Tweety just said that ward is ghoulish.