Study: Black voter turnout in Wisconsin declined by nearly one-fifth in 2016

[applegrove]

MARK SOMMERHAUSER

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/study-black-voter-turnout-in-wisconsin-declined-by-nearly-one/article_d3e72e41-96a0-51fb-83ba-11dfc6693daf.html

"SNIP.........

Turnout among black voters in Wisconsin dropped about 19 percent in the 2016 election from 2012, more than four times the national decline, according to a new study by a liberal group.

The study, released by the Center for American Progress, made the estimates based on data from the U.S. Census, polls and state voter files.

It provides the strongest evidence yet that Wisconsin’s decline in voter turnout, while seen in other demographic groups, was much more dramatic among African-Americans.

The study also found in Wisconsin, as in other key states, the 2016 electorate was significantly more white and non-college- educated than was reported by exit polls immediately after the election.

...........SNIP"

[pnwmom]

1. The targeting by Russian propaganda plus vote suppression with the voter ID law clearly worked.

[guillaumeb]

2. Declined, or was suppressed?

Given that GOP controlled Wisconsin did its best to close polling places and reduce hours at state facilities, what portion of the drop off can reasonably be attributed to that suppression?

[brush]

4. Yep, Interstate Crosscheck and other repug vote suppression tricks target the AA vote

And it was extremely irritating to me here on DU after the election seeing the many threads that attempted to place blame on black voters, especially black males, for not coming out to vote.

You'd think those folks would know who is always the main target of repug vote suppression efforts.

[guillaumeb]

5. Right on target.

Why the general lack of effort and interest on the part of Democratic leaders for the tactic of voter suppression?

[brush]

8. It's puzzling. We should work just as hard at combating vote suppression as we do GOTV because...

every vote we stop from being suppressed goes in our column.

It's a second way to increase our vote totals.

[uponit7771]

21. +1

[yallerdawg]

3. November 8, 2016 was not a good day for democracy.

The downturn in black voter turnout was cited by critics of the state’s requirement to show a photo ID to vote, which was in effect for the first time in a presidential election in 2016.

State Rep. David Bowen, D-Milwaukee, said the findings “very much confirm some of the suspicions” he and other Democrats have expressed that the requirement disproportionately hurt turnout among minority voters — who courts have found are less likely to have driver’s licenses or other IDs that meet the requirement.

[guillaumeb]

6. The other part of the story, and the vital part.

It should be a major focus for Democrats.

[TexasBushwhacker]

7. I'm just going to put this here

https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-07-20/i-aint-voting-will-black-lives-matter-reject-right-vote

"Some Black Lives Matter activists plan not to vote in November"

"But one thing that Newsome and his friends say they won't be doing in November is voting. For anyone."

**********

I heard about this in NPR. They later backtracked and said "But you should still vote in swing states". But you can't unring a bell. Voter suppression is a problem, but this may have been part of the problem too.

[applegrove]

9. Is that the equivalent to Bernie supporters who were not going to vote Hillary.

What I mean is could it be an attempt at voter suppression by the right? Don't think the GOP or russians weren't on black Twitter? I'm sure they suppressed the vote in many, many ways.

[TexasBushwhacker]

11. Actually, the Russians WERE on black sites

https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/01/list-russian-ads-facebook-instagram/

"We’ve known some of this, but today we got to see not just a representative sample of the ads themselves, but how much they cost, who exactly they targeted and how well they performed. It’s interesting stuff, so we collected it into a sortable chart with links to images of the ads so you can see for yourself."

Go to this paragraph in the article and click on the "sortable chart" link. "Black Matters" and "Blacktivist" are at the top.

Nevertheless, I'm not sure how they expected boycotting the election would have helped them. The election would happen with or without their participation. The Montgomery bus boycott worked because the city bus system NEEDED the fares that black people were paying.

But unless the Russians paid off Eddie Glaude, I don't think they were the only cause of the "blank out".

https://blackamericaweb.com/2016/02/29/eddie-s-glaude-jr-explains-the-blank-out-campaign-calls-out-trumps-bigotry/

[dembotoz]

12. Or perhaps hrc campaign was not wonderful in black areas

Don't wanna refight the election. Really don't... but u just can't keep blaming Bernie for everything. I live near Milwaukee...I saw it up close. She just didn't catch fire.

[applegrove]

13. I was not blaming Bernie. I was blaming Russian and GOP trolls who fomented

Last edited Wed Nov 8, 2017, 11:50 PM - Edit history (1)

more distrust within Democratic groups and Democratic divisions. I've always loved Bernie. He tells it like it is.

[mythology]

14. Unless you have a reason to suggest that blacks in Wisconsin in particular didn't like her,

that's not a convincing position. In Wisconsin black turnout dropped 19%. In the U.S. overall, it dropped 4.5%. So sure, chalk up the average and it still dropped by 14.5% than the average. You can't argue that it was a midwest thing as black turnout in Michigan dropped a mere 1.2%.

Voter suppression via voter ID laws is the most likely culprit based on the available evidence.

[dembotoz]

19. Valid only if Wisconsin and Michigan are the same

And perhaps they were not

[uponit7771]

22. They're NOT 13 % different !!! This looks like voter suppression

[dembotoz]

24. Or incompetence

[Awsi Dooger]

10. The link within the link is much more interesting

If it has not been posted here previously, it should be:

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2017/11/01/441926/voter-trends-in-2016/

That's the national overview of the 2016 vote, not strictly focused on Wisconsin.

I haven't read it all yet but some aspects were devastating, yet explain Hillary's defeat:

* White voters were severely underestimated in the 2016 exit poll. They were 73.7% of the electorate, not 71% as reported by the national exit poll

* In contrast, Latinos and Asians were considerably over reported in the exit poll. Only blacks at 12% matched the exit poll findings

* The exit poll was way off in terms of white college-educated voters in comparison to white non-college educated voters. There were actually far more non-college educated whites than reported, and far fewer college-educated whites

* The white share of the eligible vote declined by 1.7% from 2012 but white participation jumped from 61% in 2012 to 64% in 2016

* If white non-educated voters had participated in same percentage as 2012, Hillary's national margin would have increased by .6%.

* If blacks had participated in same percentage as 2012, Hillary's national margin would have increased by .8%


***

There is tons more stuff in there. The article doesn't specifically say it but it looks clear that whites shy away from exit pollsters while Asians and Hispanics are more eager than typical to participate

[Tatiana]

15. Great post. Really stunning information there!

White college graduates were only about 29 percent of voters, while their non-college-educated counterparts far outdistanced them at 45 percent of voters.

If more college-educated people had voted, we may have been able to overcome the major obstacles and obtained a different result.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. That link should be a separate thread

Stunning information, as you indicated. Best breakdown I've seen in a long time.

But since it is not positive it probably wouldn't play well.

It makes sense that the white vote was under reported because given the margin in some swing states it didn't make sense unless the white vote was higher.

[mythology]

16. To be fair, if I had voted for Trump I wouldn't want to admit it either

But I think more seriously that difference can be explained by the mistrust encouraged by Republicans toward the media.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. 88% of Republicans distrust the fact checking organizations

I read that somewhere within recent days. So when Politico last fall was reporting Trump lying 72% of the time, or whatever it was, his supporters comfortably denied it.

Distrust of media and anything related.

I'm surprised Republicans haven't started their own fact checking organization, one that will evaluate everything in reverse. That's probably next on the agenda. Trump will tout it.

[L. Coyote]

20. Wisconsin's Jim Crow voter ID law did this.

The confederacy is taking over the North!

[Garrett78]

23. Democrats need to be raising holy hell over voter suppression. Every time they are on the air.

And in the court room.