My one and only New Years prediction:

[Jackpine Radical]

Consider what we were thinking a year ago. There had been no Arab Spring, no Wisconsin Uprising, no Occupy movement, the Tea Party types were riding high, just having won a blowout election.

Well, if you think the changes in the past year were something to marvel at, be assured that you ain't seen nothing yet. I predict that the political landscape by late October will be unlike anything you are likely to imagine from what you know this New Years Day. That is all my crystal ball is allowing me to tell you right now.

[Liberal_in_LA]

1. as long as 2012 ends with Obama as President

[DeathToTheOil]

3. That'll happen regardless

Let's hope he's President 12 months and 3 weeks from now!

[Liberal_in_LA]

5. oh yeah. lol

[abelenkpe]

4. +1 nt

[csziggy]

10. Obama will be President at the end of 2012

It's whether or not he will be President January 21, 2013 that is the question.

[Odin2005]

14. Don't worry, a ham sandwich could bead these morons.

[Mira]

18. Beading like sweat on my brow.

I'll never forget how hard I laughed at a friend who said he worried Bush would win in 2000.
I actually used the ham sandwich analogy...my stomach cramps at the memory.

[murielm99]

19. I felt that way about Reagan.

I have never used the ham sandwich analogy since.

I don't like eating them much any more, either.

[barbtries]

26. you were right of course.

he didn't win.

[Mira]

28. So true.

The fraud, the Supremes' "chosen" President, all of those things I did not consider possible.
I'm a believer now!

[tavalon]

31. He will be.

But unless there is a sharp tack to the left, he will be as inconsequential as he has been for the last three years. The difference is that in 2008, we thought we had found our man of change. Now, we understand that we are the change we were waiting for. He will never get that one back.

Obama swept into the White House in 2008 with three choices, Lead, Follow or Get Out of the Way. We all thought choice number one was the given. We were wrong. In 2012, he will again take the White House but he will only have two choices left. Though with some finessing, he can make choice number two look like choice number one.

I, for one, hope he does. Those will be his legacy years and while being the first black President will secure him a place in history, he is way better than that - that's kind of like getting a C on your final when an A was easily doable.

[Thaddeus Kosciuszko]

2. Those who live by the crystal ball,

will one day chew on broken glass.

Congress cannot even perform its basic function (pass a budget) and we also know that there are some serious issues that require addressing in terms of long-term fiscal stability (both on the taxing and spending sides) and especially entitlement reform.

Let's be honest: the prospects for seriousness any time soon on these issues is grim, at best.

[Vincardog]

7. and especially entitlement reform? Please tell me what exactly we need to reform?

[Jackpine Radical]

8. "Let's be honest."

That's the new tipoff today, apparently.


Off topic, of course, but I understand that the Paulistas are very honest people.

[Vincardog]

9. Well I honestly believe that the "Solution" to our "entitlement 'problem'" is

Universal health CARE and full employment, with the Government as the employer of last resort.
The CIA hires every son of privilege f-up. Why not have the department of holes hire everyone else
either making the or filling them in?
If yu don't want millions of people making and then filling holes think if a better use for them.

[Jackpine Radical]

22. I think there are a lot of entitlements that should fall under the budget knife.

Like the entitlement of bankers to a profit, no matter what their stupid or corrupt policies net them.

Or the entitlement of the corporations to make free use of the people's resources without paying for them.

Or the entitlement of the CEOs to avoid taxes on their bonuses while turning the bonuses into tax dodges for the corporations.

Or the entitlement of the rich to use their wealth buy the political results they want.

[coalition_unwilling]

27. Hah! I like the way you think. Bravo! I think we need a Department

of a-holes, though, to hire Repukes

[dotymed]

37. Rebuilding our out-dated

and fragile electrical grid should be priority #1. Our entire infrastructure is in the worst shape possible. There are so many important jobs that must be done. By making these jobs, "government jobs" and cutting out the middlemen involved in contracting this to the public sector (and therefore enriching the elite) we could pay people a living wage and decrease some of the wealth inequality in America.
Of course by allowing insurance companies to control our medical care (or lack of) America will never prosper, only the elite.

GO OWS!

[suffragette]

42. Very good point dotymed

I agree this would be a great step in a better direction.

[Thaddeus Kosciuszko]

29. Are you serious...?

If so, you have not been paying very close attention. Even so, you haven't missed anything other than Democrats and Republicans taking turns kicking a can down the street.

Everyone (well I guess not everyone) knows non-discretionary (entitlement) spending is unsustainable as currently structered.
http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/91161-congressional-budget-office-fiscal-policy-is-unsustainable

But neither side wants to "go first," with respect to doing something about it.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/02/gop-to-obama-on-entitlement-reform-no-seriously-you-go-first/

[Vincardog]

32. Do you want to be hit by the clue stick? Clue this

Let Medicare NEGOTIATE for the drugs like the VA does, Save a few billion there.
Eliminate the cap of social security, faux "problem" solved.
Neither side (both sides are owned by the rich) wants to do what need to be one.
What else you got?

[Thaddeus Kosciuszko]

33. A swing and a miss...How about a dose of reality to go with your clues?

Neither side (both sides are owned by the rich) wants to do what need to be one.

Well, if they ain't gonna do it, and you are not appointed as Emperor, it shall remain unsustainable.

[Vincardog]

34. And? Your solution is to eliminate it?

[Thaddeus Kosciuszko]

38. I said that...? Are you a politician?

For you surely possess one of the prerequisites required by that vocation. If you are a control freak and capable of telling lies as well as you misrepresent, twist and distort the words of others, you should (if you haven't already) consider that line of work.

[Vincardog]

39. Once again what is your solution to the supposed "entitlement problem"? Just say it.

[Thaddeus Kosciuszko]

43. As you are aware...but perhaps I shouldn't assume...so let me say...

As you should be aware, the problem is not so much with SS as it is with Medicare and Medicaid.

The SS portion of the SS/MC tax generates ample revenue and as you mentioned, it can be tweaked to adjust for future growth. The problem is that while the MCs account for far more spending than SS, only 2.9% of the 15.3% SS/MC tax funds MC. http://www.ssa.gov/pressoffice/factsheets/colafacts2012.htm Fortunately, the MC portion applies to all earnings. Nevertheless, the revenue appropriated is still nowhere near enough to keep pace with the projected rate of growth in MC.

You said: Let Medicare NEGOTIATE for the drugs like the VA does, Save a few billion there.

That is no doubt a good idea. But the fact that something as sensible as that is not already in place is an excellent indicator of why the prospects for restructuring the MCs are so dismal. And then there is the problem of the hole we continue to dig that has become the fastest growing slice of the budget pie. In FY2011, the interest on our debt was $454,393,280,417.03. http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm Heck, that's enough money to cover the waste, fraud and mismanagement of the MCs. But alas, we dig on...

It is not an easy problem to solve, but it is nothing compared to the political difficulty that it would entail. Democrats and Republicans dare one another to "go first." But each side knows that the other will take whatever they propose and use it to beat them like a red-headed stepchild.

So...they will continue to kick that can down the street until they arrive at the dead-end. Their solution to the problem is very similar to playing musical chairs. They don't plan to be around when the music stops playing.

[Vincardog]

44. So you are not proposing a solution.

[Odin2005]

15. Enjoy your short stay, Frank Solish.

[HangOnKids]

40. Bawwwaaahhhh!

OK I laughed out loud!

[RZM]

6. I just don't see it

I agree that the Arab Spring was a major moment for that region. There the landscape is different. Probably for good.

But here? I think we're going through the same cycles/pendulum swings as always. Probably will shape up to be a Democratic year, but who knows. I certainly don't think entrenched ways will be all that different by the end of the year.

[Odin2005]

13. Read "The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil Howe.

It was published in 1997 and predicted a lot of what is going on right now. We are in a crisis similar to the Great Depression, the Civil War, and the American Revolution.

[Jackpine Radical]

23. Actually, I'm familiar with that book, although I haven't looked at it in a long time.

Thanks for the reminder.

[Odin2005]

11. IMO there will be serious calls for a Constitutional Convention by September...

...in order to constitutionally ban Corporate Personhood and get corporate money out of politics.

[RZM]

21. What's your evidence for this?

I see no indication at all of that. That's not to say one day there won't be a constitutional convention. But I think it's unlikely int the next decade, let alone the next year.

[Thaddeus Kosciuszko]

30. There may be serious calls...

but they will not be from serious people.

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. yup

Happy new year. Now I need to get that essay to bed. Speaking of predictions...

[oldhippydude]

16. thats why im here

thanks to this site.. i know have a link to Al Jezeera English on my desk top.. Had i not been here, or been paying attention to the limited tv coverage, i would not have witnessed the glory of Wisconsin (the exceptions being MSNBC and Current tv).. and of course OWS had i not been here ,i would not have seen the birth of the movement on September 17 (happily my 65th natal birthday).. and of course the battle of Ohio, and the candidacy of Elizabeth Warren

last night when folks were setting of fire works here.. i was in zuccotti park, thanks to a streaming vidio link i found here.. another march through Manhatten complete with Bat signal..

well i might remind some of a line by our poet laureate Bob Dylan.. " and dont speak too soon for the wheels still in spin, theres no tellin to whom that its mamin".. I remember 4 years ago some pundits had it figured Rudy Giuliani for the Republican nomination, Before Joe Biden deralied his campaign with a classic throw away line.. "a noun and a verb and 911"

while this coming year is fraught with peril, i the spark has been struck.. in the end we must move forward, however haltingly to do otherwise would assure tyranny..

please a special thanks to the folks in Wisconsin.. i cried like a baby witnessing some of those Video links last winter.. firefighters in kilts, bagpipes blaring, marching into the capitol..you may never know, how you gave us hope after the teabaggers took so many offices in the last election

[Terra Alta]

17. I think it's going to be a wild ride this year.

Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be fun.

[WingDinger]

20. I predict, when Obama wins reelection, at least one rethug will immolate themselves.

[Jackpine Radical]

24. Can you be a little more precise?

I want to bring the marshmallows.

[oldhippydude]

25. actually

if Obama wins... watch the baggers go back to thier militia roots... and another incident like ok city

[ClassWarrior]

35. I knew there were wizards in the north woods!

I knew it!!



NGU.

[Jackpine Radical]

36. Laugh.

http://www.amazon.com/Enchanted-Alphabet-Guide-Authentic-Divination/dp/0850307651/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1325604742&sr=1-1

[JI7]

41. the Tea Party always got more attention than they deserved