Verification Process in Iran Deal Is Questioned by Some Experts

[bananas]

Source: New York Times

The Obama administration’s claim that the Iran nuclear accord provides for airtight verification procedures is coming under challenge from nuclear experts with long experience in monitoring Tehran’s program.

Energy Secretary Ernest J. Moniz has insisted that Iran would not be able to hide traces of any illicit nuclear work before inspectors gain access to a suspicious site. But several experts, including a former high-ranking official at the International Atomic Energy Agency, said a provision that gives Iran up to 24 days to grant access to inspectors might enable it to escape detection.

Olli Heinonen, a former deputy director of the agency, said in an interview that while “it is clear that a facility of sizable scale cannot simply be erased in three weeks’ time without leaving traces,” the more likely risk is that the Iranians would pursue smaller-scale but still important nuclear work, such as manufacturing uranium components for a nuclear weapon.

<snip>

Mr. Heinonen, however, said there had been cases in which Iran had successfully hidden evidence of illicit nuclear work even when nuclear enrichment was involved.

When the atomic energy agency sought to inspect the Kalaye Electric Company site in Iran in 2003 to check whether the Iranians were using centrifuges that they had obtained from Pakistan, the Iranians kept inspectors at bay while they spent weeks removing the equipment and renovating the building where it had been kept.

<snip>

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/23/world/middleeast/provision-in-iran-accord-is-challenged-by-some-nuclear-experts.html?_r=0

[kelliekat44]

1. Yeah, because we were so right about the verification of WMD in Iraq and Yellow Cake. Wonder where

that came from?

Oh, same place this is coming from, no doubt.

[7962]

2. Prepare to be called a "right winger" for even posting this

No dissent allowed; otherwise you want war apparently

[geek tragedy]

6. Do you want the deal to be rejected by Congress? nt

[7962]

7. What difference does it make? Iran will skirt this just like the NPT

which they also signed
You think the US came up with 24 days between "suspicion" and "inspection"?
The rest of the ME crazies are now going to go get their own nukes because this deal isnt going to stop Iran from getting theirs. Oh, no inspection of military facilities either.
And iran STILL hasnt even admitted that they had a weapons program

[blm]

12. You don't know what you're talking about.

Perhaps you should try listening more closely to Kerry and Moniz and less closely to your RW news sources.

BTW - Reagan NEVER should have made agreements with the Soviets considering how untrustworthy we all know they are.

Right?

[7962]

16. My facts remain accurate. You're just a cheerleader. Enjoy!

Russia is not Iran. Iran is run by crazies. Russia wasn't.

[blm]

20. Horsesh!t. Iran is now run by leaders who studied at US universities. Your side is aligned

with the 'crazies' in Iran who are opposing this deal.

[geek tragedy]

26. no, you have rightwing blather and warmongering.

For facts, we generally turn to people who understand the science, such as Ernest Moniz.

[7962]

27. Like I said, hope it works. Hope Iran keeps their end of the deal. I do.

But HISTORY shows that the betting money would be on them cheating because its WHAT THEY DO
Enjoy!

[geek tragedy]

28. Did you support the Iraq war, and if so what did you learn?

Specifically about WMDS and inspection programs?

[7962]

29. Oh HELL no. There arent caps large enough to convey my feelings on Iraq

[geek tragedy]

30. Was Saddam less inclined to cheat than the Iranians? nt

[7962]

32. Cheney made up the Iraq stuff, Saddam didnt have a nuke program

Iran does. But Comparing Iran with anyone else is a moot point anyway. Other countries actions have no bearing on whether or not Iran can be trusted. They've already proven that they will violate treaties that they sign, such as the NPT.

[geek tragedy]

33. The inspections program prevented Iraq from developing a nuclear weapon. Nukes are easier

to detect than chemical weapons due to radiation traces.

So, if it worked on Iraq, why not on Iran?

[karynnj]

35. So, Your "facts" are accurate by fiat -- where the facts by Secretary Kerry and Moniz are not???

Then you somehow think the way to discuss the relative merits is to call BLM a cheerleader? BLM is a known liberal democratic poster who has been here for over a decade. What surprises me is the number of people - like you - who seem to be active ONLY on this topic and who are parroting every BiBi or neo con line.

Most experts have expressed that the deal is better than expected and they are satisfied that the inspections are more than has been done elsewhere. It is NOT surprising that there will be someone somewhere who has some credibility who has doubts. Given that there are people paying millions to defeat this, it is no surprise that their comments will be given prominent placement.

However, EVEN if you accept what he is saying, there is still the 24/7 inspection of known facilities and the removal of a substantial amount of uranium. EVEN giving you everything you said, Iran will have more difficulty covertly making a bomb under this agreement, than if Bibi et all manage to derail it.

If the agreement fails, we are back to Iran being two or three months from a bomb and with a strong reason to go for one.

[6chars]

13. when people support something

they want every possible fact that supports it to be true as well because they should be true. with Republicans, this is called truthiness. in this case, it means there is no risk with the Iran deal.

[blm]

3. Reporter sought dissent. Hans Blix already stated that it is a far-reaching deal, better than anyone

ever expected. Most nuclear experts agree. Even many of Israel's intel experts say it is a comprehensive deal.

I guess you can find 'experts' to disagree with anything. See: Climate Change.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/qa-hans-blix-iran-deal-remarkably-far-reaching

[seveneyes]

4. 24 days to grant access to inspectors might enable it to escape detection

Ya fucking think so? No shit Holmes. Who the fuck gave them that escape plan?

[geek tragedy]

5. You have a degree in nuclear physics? nt

[7962]

8. Do you? Does Sec Kerry?

[blm]

11. Are you claiming Kerry didn't work with nuclear experts?

Moniz: Test results back up assurances on Iran deal

But Moniz, President Barack Obama’s salesman-in-chief on the agreement’s technical aspects, says Energy Department specialists conducted experiments to gauge how hard it would be to detect the radioactive residue left behind. The result, he said, was that three weeks wouldn’t be enough time for Iran to be sure it had covered its tracks — by a large margin.

“It is essentially impossible, certainly with confidence, to believe that you’re going to do this kind of work with nuclear materials and be confident at having it cleaned it up,” Moniz, who helped negotiate the agreement alongside Secretary of State John Kerry, said in an interview with POLITICO before meeting with lawmakers about the pact. He said the experiments involved “very limited quantities” of uranium, and that DOE “unsuccessfully probed the limits of trying to clean it up.”


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/moniz-test-results-back-up-assurances-on-iran-deal-120507.html

[7962]

15. The question was asked if the poster had a degree in nuclear physics, like that mattered.

"salesman-in-chief". Yep, that makes me feel a lot better.
The negatives I mention remain in place. The statements made by the Iranians remain. No military inspections. Weeks notice for inspections of suspicious sites. Immediate lifting of sanctions. No restrictions on ballistic missiles. Top terrorist off the sanction list. No admission of the nuclear program by Iran. Instant influx of cash into Iran before they even prove anything.
Shitty list.
Again, its a done deal, hope you're happy. A lot of people who arent "right wing" arent. Lets see if it remains even as long as the Pres remains in office.

[blm]

19. I'm happy because they got an even better deal than anyone expected including BibiZBoyz.

And THAT is what pisses off the Republicans and BibizBoyz more than anything else.

The deal is GREAT and they know it - it is THEIR job now to propagandize their sheep and keep them herded in their warmongering neocon pens.

[7962]

23. Once again, I hope you're right. It will be great if this works.

I just base my opinion on Irans words and actions. Thats all. We'll know in a few years what happens

[geek tragedy]

25. Salesman in chief, and NUCLEAR PHYSICIST.

Sorry, I will take his word over the "Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran crowd"

[geek tragedy]

24. Kerry partnered with Secretary of Energy Moniz, who does have such a degree

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141154444

But Moniz, President Barack Obama’s salesman-in-chief on the agreement’s technical aspects, says Energy Department specialists conducted experiments to gauge how hard it would be to detect the radioactive residue left behind. The result, he said, was that three weeks wouldn’t be enough time for Iran to be sure it had covered its tracks — by a large margin.

“It is essentially impossible, certainly with confidence, to believe that you’re going to do this kind of work with nuclear materials and be confident at having it cleaned it up,” Moniz, who helped negotiate the agreement alongside Secretary of State John Kerry, said in an interview with POLITICO before meeting with lawmakers about the pact. He said the experiments involved “very limited quantities” of uranium, and that DOE “unsuccessfully probed the limits of trying to clean it up.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_Moniz

Moniz official portrait standing.jpg

13th United States Secretary of Energy

Ernest Jeffrey Moniz GCIH[1] (born December 22, 1944) is an American nuclear physicist and the United States Secretary of Energy, serving under U.S. President Barack Obama since May 2013. He has served as the Associate Director for Science in the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Executive Office of the President of the United States from 1995 to 1997 and in the United States Department of Energy, serving as Under Secretary of Energy, from 1997 to 2001 during the Clinton Administration.

[Adrahil]

31. Moniz does. nt

[karynnj]

34. No, but he is listening to Senator Moniz, who not only has a PHD in this but taught it at MIT

[blm]

10. You want to claim Moniz is lying?

Moniz: Test results back up assurances on Iran deal

>>>>
But Moniz, President Barack Obama’s salesman-in-chief on the agreement’s technical aspects, says Energy Department specialists conducted experiments to gauge how hard it would be to detect the radioactive residue left behind. The result, he said, was that three weeks wouldn’t be enough time for Iran to be sure it had covered its tracks — by a large margin.

“It is essentially impossible, certainly with confidence, to believe that you’re going to do this kind of work with nuclear materials and be confident at having it cleaned it up,” Moniz, who helped negotiate the agreement alongside Secretary of State John Kerry, said in an interview with POLITICO before meeting with lawmakers about the pact. He said the experiments involved “very limited quantities” of uranium, and that DOE “unsuccessfully probed the limits of trying to clean it up.”


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/moniz-test-results-back-up-assurances-on-iran-deal-120507.html

[BlueEye]

17. He's not lying. That is his genuine scientific and professional assessment of the deal.

He has a PhD, years of experience with this sort of thing, etc., so his opinion holds a great deal of weight. I hope people listen to him, and I personally hope Dr. Moniz is correct!

But, he cannot give absolute assurance. It would be preposterous to assume absolute assurance in a situation this contentious.

[cynzke]

18. UP TO 24 DAYS.

Not automatic. I would think if there is a strong suspicion of foul play, inspectors will demand earlier access. Would also think that once a facility is a target for the inspectors, they will be monitoring all activity and material going in and and out. I would think that the inspectors are granted the right to search trucks before they are allowed to scurry off.

[blm]

21. They DO have that ability - Kerry just confirmed that at the hearing.

The RW talking points are being shot down.

[asiliveandbreathe]

9. Olli - come on now - 2003? - that was

12 years ago - now someone with your wealth of nucular knowledge and inspections..ahem - Iraq for example...Iranians spent weeks removing equipment - you mean to tell us - you and your cohorts haven't improved one iota???

Reminds me of the scene in the Hunt for Red October..as the Russian meets with a US senator to explain the missing nuke sub..much to the senators surprise there was more than one nuke sub missing...priceless....

Nucular/ - coined by GWB....

[DhhD]

14. Nuclear Fuel Cycle-Some information on Uranium and Plutonium

World Nuclear Association:
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Conversion-Enrichment-and-Fabrication/Uranium-Enrichment/
and
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Fuel-Recycling/Plutonium/
Reaction in standard UO2 fuel is pictured.



PBS:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/what-is-the-difference-between-the-nuclear-material-in-a-bomb-versus-a-reactor/

[Red1]

22. BFD...

The iraqi nuke sanctions were always in turmoil...