Quinnipiac poll: Sanders surges to retake lead in Iowa
Source: The Hill
Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton in a major Iowa poll for the first time since September, the latest sign the Democratic primary race is tightening between the two candidates.
The Vermont senator wins 49 percent of likely caucusgoers in the Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, compared to Clinton's 44 percent. It's a significant drop for the former secretary of State from last month's Quinnipiac poll, which had her up by 11 percent.
Sanders is boosted by his 30-point lead among men, a significantly higher favorability rating, and more favorable views of his character traits and values. He's seen as a better steward of the economy and climate change, while Clinton wins on foreign policy, terrorism and healthcare . . .
Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/265555-quinnipiac-poll-sanders-surges-to-lead-in-iowa
TheFarseer
(9,322 posts)dorkzilla
(5,141 posts)Wonderful news for Sanders!
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)....and profits
Pastiche423
(15,406 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Particularly since the poll does not accept clients or outside funding.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)Bubzer
(4,211 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)"Iowa Democrats still believe Clinton has a better shot at the White House, with 85 percent picking her compared to 68 percent who think Sanders can win."
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)Last edited Tue Jan 12, 2016, 04:10 PM - Edit history (1)
I agree with you that this is a "narrative" that needs to be busted up. For one thing, it's false.
We are working very hard to do this in Iowa.
Iowans, like the rest of the country, experienced eight years of Hillary being sold as the "inevitable" Democratic nominee. Look at this headline/first paragraph from a November issue of the Des Moines Register:
"As Iowa debate approaches, Clinton seems inevitable again
It's hard to foresee a result other than the Hillary Clinton juggernaut wining Iowa unless something major blows up in the presidential race, Democratic activists say."
This is what Iowans have been dealing with for years--and all the way into November and December (from national and local press). Slowly, this false narrative is melting. It's like a giant iceberg though! It takes a while to get that out of the public consciousness.
The good news though; Hillary running on a "I'm inevitable and the most electable" meme is fine if you don't have a formidable opponent. Her campaign, never in their wildest dreams, thought Sanders could catch up. He's now a formidable opponent. So, that blows your "inevitable" and "most electable" narratives. Sanders is just now being seen as that formidable opponent. Literally, this began less than a week ago. The shift was drastic and so sudden!
We're just now inside the crazy, last leg of the caucus season. 19 days to go! This is when Iowans are fully engaged, attending rallies to gather information and paying attention to the race. Television ads, mailers, phone calls and canvassers are bombarding us and we are preparing to caucus. Bernie is surging (and in some polls beating) Clinton. This is so significant because the people who are now paying attention are no longer making their caucus decisions when Bernie is behind by 20 points and Clinton appears inevitable and the most electable.
In effect, she is naked and without those critical narratives that kept her campaign propped up for so long. Bernie has the momentum now, and he is seen by generally by Iowans (due to the polls and the media reporting it) as a competitive, formidable opponent with his own ideas, as well as huge crowds. Her events are not well attended and they are low energy. Those optics will further help him and hurt her.
Anything can happen in Iowa. Either Clinton or Sanders could win. However, both candidates are on equal footing now. That is huge. Polls show Bernie beating Trump in the GE by wider margins than Clinton. It's just going to take a while to let that truth sink in. But we are working hard at it, and we've got the truth on our side, so I am hopeful.
So much work to be done in Iowa, but it's looking very good for Bernie.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...and the methodology on this poll was sound. I was first asked if I planned to attend my caucus. When a pollster draws from "likely caucus goers" the numbers are more reliable and accurate (many polls start with previous caucus goers or they draw from registered Dems. This does not provide reliable results in Iowa due to the high numbers of Independents in our state. And polling only previous caucus goers excludes young voters and first-time caucus goers).
This is a good poll, similar methodology to Ann Selzer's Iowa Poll which has been given an A+ by Nate Silver.
Fantastic news for Bernie.
Clinton went dropped 51-44 from mid-December. Wow!
I knew what I'd been seeing at her low-attendance rallies was significant. I think her campaign is in a free fall.
There is still much work to be done. We have to behave as if were 10 points behind. Anything can happen with the Iowa caucuses!
thereismore
(13,326 posts)question everything
(47,476 posts)but this will be the end after Nevada, South Carolina and "Super Tuesday."
Oh, and Bill Clinton did not win either of these "fringe" states.
Maybe some day we will just toss these two into regional rotating primaries.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)was because Iowa Senator Tom Harkin was running for President that year. Bill Clinton didn't even run a serious campaign here in Iowa because he knew that Harkin would win. Bill Clinton skipped the Black and Brown Forum and barely had a presence here.
So, to suggest that Bill Clinton losing the Iowa caucuses is evidence that one can lose Iowa and go on to win the Presidency--is a misrepresentation.
Bill Clinton didn't run a full campaign here. His wife, has spent millions here and has been campaigning in this state since 2014. She began building up her campaign infrastructure here in early January 2015 and has been on the ground with 20 Iowa offices since.
No comparison at all. But nice try.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)plus Bill Clinton was able to spin a strong second place showing In NH as a win after the first round of scandals came up.
When Bernie wins Iowa and NH things likely change In Nevada.
I agree with clinton supporters she probally wins SC but it may not be the blowout they expect.
It's crazy to think race won't change when Bernie wins iowa and NH.
Clinton won NH in 2008 and now it is rejecting her.Don't give me the VT is next door excuse.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)I think the race is wide open now.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)I think you underestimate human behavior. Let's just wait and see - of course you could be right, but I don't think so.
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)and as they learn more about HIllarys.
It's time to end the stranglehold that the right wing DLC Corporate democrats (calling them selves 'centrists') has had on the Part7y of FDR.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Uhhh....
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,312 posts)Google cache:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:k1Cvtwu20AwJ:bigstory.ap.org/article/ba84ffe4e11344d2a3531b70c1b2a61b/democratic-race-tightening-clinton-attacks-sanders+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
"AMES, Iowa (AP) Facing a narrowing primary contest, Hillary Clinton ripped into rival Bernie Sanders on Wednesday, saying the Vermont senator was offering unrealistic policies and overstating his anti-establishment credentials. ..."
Version in which they've corrected the poll result to show Sanders leading, and to say "Tuesday" in the opening paragraph, but still claiming Quinnipac released the poll on 'Wednesday': http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ba84ffe4e11344d2a3531b70c1b2a61b/democratic-race-tightening-clinton-attacks-sanders