Clinton Keeps Slim Edge Over Sanders In Latest Iowa Poll

[Purveyor]

Source: Des Moines Register

Hillary Clinton has kept a tight grip on her slim lead over Bernie Sanders in the waning hours leading into the Iowa caucuses, a new Iowa Poll shows.

Clinton is the top pick for 45 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, with Sanders at 42 percent, The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll shows.

Clinton's support is up 3 percentage points from earlier this month, and Sanders' is 2 percentage points higher.

“This race is as tight as can be,” said David Axelrod, a national political strategist. “If Bernie Sanders had momentum headed into the final month, the race now is static and essentially tied."

Read more: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/clinton-keeps-slim-edge-over-sanders-latest-iowa-poll/79537020/

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Bloomberg is also covering this article without a paywall restriction at this link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-30/bloomberg-politics-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-democrats

[hoosierlib]

1. GOTV

It's all about turn-out...

[CSStrowbridge]

5. Hillary Clinton...

Hillary Clinton likely has the lead here. She leads among older people, who are more likely to vote, and among people who have caucused in the past.

[hoosierlib]

7. Motivation...

And Sanders' supporters are more motivated and passionate...the higher the number of total voters is above 150k, the higher the chance for Bernie to win...

[bkkyosemite]

27. I'm an "older people" and I do not agree with that poll

you speak of. At the Bernie Sanders rally here there were many (most of them) older people there. I believe the polls are not giving a true picture of who is voting for Bernie.

[PatrynXX]

28. bit if an oddity so if your older

which age bracket does one fall in voting for people 6 yrs apart with alot of Independents expected to joing the caucuses as first time dems almost all for Bernie. Slim Lead = disaster , either now or november

[trillion]

30. I'm older too. I have to wonder what age this older who will vote for hillary is? 70? 80?

The 50 year-olds were part of the internet revolution so have been coming for a long time. I think it's the non internet users who are the majority of the Hillary supporters.

[bkkyosemite]

34. I'm 69 from Silicon Valley you could be right about the computer thing.

[JimDandy]

14. That's exactly what it will come down to, of course.

It's a nail biter and Sanders is in an excellent position to pull this off.

[HereSince1628]

23. yes, caucuses must by definition be decided by turnout

That part is never rocket science.

[retrowire]

2. That's a dead damn heat.

Both of them gained 3 points and have stayed relative to one another.

Oy vey, this is going to be a fight.

Either way, Bernie has the majority of the youth vote and polls over 20 points higher than Hillary when people are asked "Does this candidate care about people like you?"

And the pundits said that that number is normally very telling when it comes to deciding the winner.

[Metric System]

8. Selzer: "Most of the ways you look at it, she’s stronger than the three-point race would suggest."

[pnwmom]

9. George McGovern had the youth vote and lost by 49 states.

Young people have the lowest rate of participation so their support only matters if they get to the polls.

We'll find out next week.

[Ed Suspicious]

12. Keep those fingers crossed.

[JimDandy]

16. What McGovern didn't have was the internet's social networking

That has entirely changed the dynamic of youth voting as shown with Obama. Youth peers influence each other enormously. For example, my 20 something son has 200 friends on facebook. All except 2 are for Sanders. 1 is for Clinton and 1 for "any Republican but Trump".

My son was just telling me that they are all talking back and forth about finding out where they can caucus and informing each other that they can register to vote at their caucus {I've got to check on that, so I know my son is getting the right info from them-sometimes the young 'uns have more enthusiasm than facts ; ) }

[Ed Suspicious]

3. Clinton maintains a statistical tie with Sanders.

[Attorney in Texas]

17. Sanders is behind by 3%. In 2008 DMR's last poll understated Obama's support by 5.6% Edwards by 5.7%

[PatrynXX]

29. by that count Bernie might end up with a landslide

Omalley goes second choice to Bernie albeit my second choice would be Omalley . No Democrat has ever won with such high negative numbers and it's too risky putting her up against Trump.

[trillion]

31. What are the high negative numbers? What do you mean?

[nc4bo]

18. If HRC is so inevitable, wtf is the poll doing tied?!

DAMN Bernie is kicking some ass!

[Des Moines De Mon]

33. I like your assessment of the Panthers

I'm guessing Carolina 41, Denver 17.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

4. Seeing how she was supposed to be inevitable...

Inevitable appears pretty shaky right now.

[George II]

6. That's a state-wide poll. Since Sanders has heavy support in three or four districts....

....being slightly behind doesn't bode well for him in the rest of the state.

[Attorney in Texas]

10. "The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points."

excerpt:

The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.... Sanders, a U.S. senator representing Vermont, wins a majority of those under 35, first-time caucusgoers and political independents.... Sanders benefits from supporters who believe the system is rigged against all but the very rich and powerful.

Overall, about two-thirds of Democrats believe the system works against them.

“That theme is probably why this race is so close,” said Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll.
...
Nine percent of caucusgoers are undecided or not committed to a candidate, compared with 14 percent earlier this month. They are part of a larger group of 30 percent who are up for grabs, both those without a first choice and those with a first choice who could still be persuaded to move to another candidate.... Sanders has support from 63 percent of those under 35 and holds the edge with men.... Fifty-one percent of Democrats say Sanders is the candidate who cares most about “people like you,” while only 37 percent say it’s Clinton.

Danial Samar, 31, of North Liberty, likes Sanders' “honesty and integrity.” He sees other Democratic and Republican candidates pandering to voters.

“In my opinion, he has the best interests of the people at heart,” said Samar, who works in the biotech industry.... Samar, however, thinks Clinton seems to do whatever is necessary to get votes. “That’s not appealing.” ... Lynette Richards, 65 of Cedar Rapids, likes Sanders’ opposition to the Iraq war and to the proposed Bakken oil pipeline, which would cut through Iowa on its way from North Dakota to Illinois.

The retired guidance counselor has been working in her neighborhood, talking with residents and organizing efforts to get out the vote. Her neighborhood association is providing rides and making sure sidewalks are cleared of snow. “I expect to win,” she said.

[Metric System]

11. Also saw this tweeted by Des Moines Register chief politics reporter:

"Clinton's support is more solid than Sanders', and her advantage with women overrides his advantage with youth voters, Iowa Poll shows."

[pnwmom]

13. I hit the pay-wall. Can you tell us something about how the poll was conducted?

Was it just registered voters, or some form of likely voters, or what? And what is the margin of error?

Also, this poll in 2008 said 60% of the caucus goers were going to be first time caucus goers. Does she give a result for that question this time?

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ann-selzer-iowa-pollster-216151

“I’ve had the experience that would change anybody. In 2008, our final poll said 60 percent of people on the Democratic side were going to be first-time caucusgoers,” Selzer said. “And we took a lot of heat, and people cried and they carried on. [PBS anchor] Judy Woodruff was interviewing me that day and said, ‘How did you assume this? Why did you assume this?’ I go, ‘I assumed nothing.’ My data told me this was what was going to happen, and it was 57 percent in the entrance poll.”

[Purveyor]

21. Bloomberg is also covering this story and no paywall there.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-30/bloomberg-politics-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-democrats

[pnwmom]

22. Thanks, Purveyor!

[Attorney in Texas]

15. If you look at the poll aggregation of today's DMR poll with ALL of the

other polls except the robo-call polls, it is a dead heat:

[madokie]

19. To those who can't seem to figure it out yet

it will be President Sanders starting january 20 2017

[trillion]

32. We should hope. We're screwed if its not. Bernie even spoke against the TPP which hillary personally

ushered in. She was part of the original people writing the current version. She's been very quiet about that during this debate. The emperor has no clothes though. If only the hillary voters would open their eyes.

[Eric J in MN]

35. The problem is that the debate moderators don't ask about the TPP.

I wish one would ask her: "Will you oppose any trade agreements with Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS)?


ISDS = special courts which polluters can use but environmentalists can't.

[andrewv1]

20. So, the Impact of O'Malley's voters to another candidate or

Clinton's newest email controversy (even though polling ended yesterday) has not been completely figured in?

[GeoWilliam750]

24. Was wondering

Have there been any more recent studies of how much national airtime Senator Sanders is receiving versus Secretary Clinton? A few weeks ago, it was a double digit multiple, and if it is still a multiple, it is then quite remarkable that even with this disadvantage Senator Sanders has effectively closed to even with Secretary Clinton.

Perhaps I misread, but I also saw that there are Republicans changing party to caucus as Democrats to vote for Senator Sanders, although it is not clear whether these are converts or spoilers. I am also not sure whether these are showing up in the polls.

Still, the trends are impressive.

Still, the only poll that really matters is the one on Monday evening, and my nails are already chewed down to the quick.

[humbled_opinion]

25. Wake up Caucus goers before you lose

one time only chance to nominate a person of real change and serious change, a person that can help average people even the playing field....

[bkkyosemite]

26. I hope Microsoft's Bing does not cause any irregularities.

[passiveporcupine]

36. I think Des Moin Register is in the tank for Hillary

It's just a poll...don't anyone get your panties in a wad.

Just GOTV. Que sera sera.

[Sunlei]

37. Sanders does very well. Sanders and Clinton should Team-up or the Party will remain divided.

[Sunlei]

38. Americas political information should Never be behind a paywall.