Stunning New Reuters Poll Shows Bernie Sanders Leading Nationally by 6 Percent

[retrowire]

Source: USUncut

A new national poll from Reuters shows Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton by 6 points among Democrats — his largest lead of the primary so far.

According to the 5-day rolling poll results released on February 23, Sanders has the support of 41.7 percent of voters who identify as Democrat compared to Clinton’s 35.5 percent. The poll sampled 998 voters from across the country who identify as Democrats or as independents who lean towards the Democratic party.

Read more: http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-leading-by-six-in-reuters-national-poll/

---

[NowSam]

1. Thanks for the good news.

He is rising and she is dropping.

[trillion]

16. The voters won't go back to her after picking him, I'm sure of it.

I think he's right. This is going to snowball for him.

[Bubzer]

77. I've heard of people switching to him... but never to her.

Well, except for one person here... but looking at the account, it's a dubious claim.

[Akamai]

79. I sure agree with you on this. People generally react to important themes, I think, and Bernie does

NOT have to fake sincerity, dedication, decency, and people watching him know that he has all those qualities.

Go BERNIE!!!!

[Red Oak]

57. To know her is to, well, meh....

[dirtydickcheney]

2. This is ABSOLUTELY GREAT NEWS after a crappy Nevada result!!

I hope the Democratic Party realizes what they have with Bernie when it comes to the convention in Philadelphia.

Unfortunately, my suspicions are that they will make sure to choose ONLY the a Corporatist-at-heart which is what they had with Obama in 2008.


Hope, i'm proven wrong, though.

[PWPippin]

43. Bernie and we, as he would say, did well in Nevada.

Think how we'd have done if there hadn't been " chaos "!

Fantastic news in the poll. Onward!

[AzDar]

3. Go, Bernie GO!!

[Arugula Latte]

4. Boom!

[CoffeeCat]

5. Despite NV...the trends continue that were in place in the run up to Iowa

Bernie Sanders is ascending in the polls. The more people hear his message and are familiarized with his campaign--the more they flock to him.

As his campaign hits more state, he's doing to continue to increase in the national polls--which will ultimately help him in these states.

Hillary, on the other hand, is tanking.

There are national trends happening--and it's only a matter of days before his general momentum catches up in these states that are voting.

Sanders supporters need to remember this. A narrow loss in NV does mean this campaign is over. Not by a long shot.

[Nyan]

14. There have been so many irregularities in caucus states,

I'll have to see if SC election results are consistent with actual polling data before the primary (and I predict it will be fairly consistent in SC). Then, my suspicion will be confirmed that surprising 7% gap between NV polling data and election results was a fluke for Hillary that was, in many respects, orchestrated by DNC and the party establishment.
Obviously, I don't expect him to do better than Hillary among AA voters in the South, but it will be meaningful if he does better among AA voters in SC than ppl predicted. That will be enough for him to better the results in many states he's already doing well and gaining significantly. Because momentum has been with him ever since he announced and he's only going up. Never down.

[trillion]

17. Plus he said he will continue to the end.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

6. I just donated!

[trillion]

18. +10000

I will again on Monday.

[thereismore]

53. I will on Tuesday (payday!) nt

[wildbilln864]

75. I did and will again...

and will be canvasing for Bernie this Friday here in upstate SC. Feel the Bern!

[Cobalt Violet]

7. This make me even more furious toward the DNC.

Why the fuck are they backing a loser.

[trillion]

19. They're bought out by the same people she is. Look at all those delegates.

They're made up of a lot of lobbyists as well as status quo congress.

[John K]

31. please remember that democracy thing

The DNC doesn't vote

[Gore1FL]

48. They can have influence over those who do.

Therein is the reason to have a neutral DNC when it comes to the nomination phase.

[tommcc99]

76. Super delegates?

And the DemParty may not vote. But I caucused in Las Vegas and the party had an impact. Remember that establishment thing. The party has not been neutral in who they support.

[dana_b]

8. that's just among Democrats?

Oh yeah, she's done for. Independents like her much less than the Dems do.

[greymouse]

25. there probably isn't a Republican in the country who doesn't despise her.

I posted in another thread that my two Repub relatives who think the current Repub field is nuts are planning to vote for Bernie if he is the nominee.

[tabasco]

65. Republican hatred of the Clintons is irrational

They hate because Rush tells them to.

[tex-wyo-dem]

71. Not only Republicans, but a big chuck of independents as well...

And independents is where the rubber hit ths road. The next president will absolutely need majority support from independents to be elected.

Irrational? Yes, I agree...but their hatred exists and it's real, with little chance of changing minds.

Bernie does not have this problem.

[silvershadow]

9. That IS stunning!...(that they reported it, I mean). nt

[Angel Martin]

10. they just called Nevada for Trump

Trump at 46%

This sure is a unique election.

For both parties, the very last people the Party elites wanted look like they will be the nominees.

[ErikJ]

11. Maybe Bernie needs to simplify his message like Trump does.

Trump doesnt use big words like TPP and NAFTA. Trump says he'll bring jobs home by raising taxes on imports and we have a YUUUGE trade deficit with Mexico and China.

[Feeling the Bern]

24. I don't think Bernie can use simple, one syllable words for complex ideas

[Bubzer]

78. I think Bernie should just be Bernie. He's doing just fine being himself.

One of the reasons Hillary is so untrustworthy is her personal narrative changes to suit the situation... Bernie is consistent....winning him much trustworthiness.

[MoonchildCA]

12. Rec, Rec, Rec!

Kick, Kick, Kick!

[trillion]

13. This is AWESOME!

People are waking up to who Hillary really is and who Bernie really is.

Dare I dream we could beat the biggest bought out candidates in the most expensive election in history?

And look what is on the table if we lose. It would be so utterly crushing. One thing I'm sure of, every single person who has woken up will not be going back. We want to kick the bought out status quo, out.

[Marty McGraw]

30. it happened with the

Dodgers all the time

[californiabernin]

15. I wonder if it was the sample size of the democratic leaning independents....

You know, the ones we need to WIN the GE?

Edit: I replied before reading the poll. HUGE jump in this poll in just weeks! Clinton was +5 previously in this one.

Damn, this could be for real!!!

[6chars]

20. Here is the original source

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/DQSTATE:14|15|23|24|36|50,PARTY_ID_:1/suggested/0

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/RESP_AGE:-3,PARTY_ID_:1/suggested/1

Hard to decipher. Looks like "wouldn't vote" has surged by 5% in the last week or so.

[Jack Rabbit]

21. Thank you

I think we Sandernistas needed something to cheer us up.

[avaistheone1]

22. I feel the Bern!!

[hopemountain]

23. i'm visualizing a tsunami of voters for bernie ~

~ a tsunami of historical proportions! i believe tejas will be a shocker

[Divernan]

33. Yup! A Tsanders tsunami!

[FailureToCommunicate]

42. Now THAT is clever! Tsanks for the laugh!

[Betty Karlson]

26. Great news: the unsinkable candidacy is going down like the Titanic.

Iceberg ahead!

- Never mind, We are inevitable.

Madam wannabe-president, so is the iceberg.

- Never mind I say.

Madam wannabe-president, we are sinking!

- Abandon ship! The women and 1 % first! (Except for millennial women; they can drown with the millennial boys they lust after, and go to Hell for not keeping my ship afloat.)

[A Simple Game]

44. I like your post so much that I hate to have to point out one small mistake.

Abandon ship! The women and 1 % first!

You got the order backwards, Hillary would never put women before the 1%.

[Betty Karlson]

49. Since your correction made my day, I'm glad for your contribution.

[A Simple Game]

54. So a win-win for both of us, good for us. n/t

[Live and Learn]

27. K&R nt

[Duckfan]

28. The revolution is growing

We all need to keep our foot on the gas peddle. No stopping now.

[iamthebandfanman]

29. Its because of

independents liking him.. if you look at head to head polls of Bernie versus a someone like trump, that is...
and whats up with that large number of people not planning on voting at all ? geez guys. we have GOT to get people out to polls. we need to get minority voters out and people living at or in poverty.. I wish there was a way to reach them and get them excited like they were for Obama and his ideas/promises...

will truly be sad if he doesn't get the nomination and the mad man (Donald) wins the presidency ...
worst election result possible maybe ever .. lol
especially if you listened to his victory speech in Nevada last night .. yikes!

hopefully Bernie will have a good super Tuesday on march 1st .... really need to get a big state like Texas (has 222 delegates up for grabs)...

if this comes down to party bosses choosing our nominee, there WILL be backlash.. and no, I'm not talking about staying home or voting against Hillary if shes the nominee.. there are other ways we can make them hurt... and we can do it publically at the convention by keeping Bernies delegates Bernies...

They are technically TIED , going by voted delegates.. at 51... you can see all the delegate data (including the over 400 super delegates that have already come out for Hillary) here :

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

[Marty McGraw]

32. ( ._.)

and CA has very close to Twice that many, and our primaries aren't until very near the End before the Convention.

[davidpdx]

37. Thank you for posting this

I'm going to print it out.

[Marty McGraw]

62. Glat it could help

[trillion]

81. Thank you. Important info.

[Marty McGraw]

82. Absolutamente!

[trillion]

83. I'm studying Italian on DuoLingo right now.

So Absolutamente totally works for me.

[Major Hogwash]

34. My grandfather clock just stopped as I was reading this!

So, I told my grandfather, "take your hand off the pendulum, gramps, and let that clock tick!!!"

[Helen Borg]

35. People are sick of being treated like dumb children

Which is what Hillary does all the time.

[vdogg]

36. That 22.9% "wouldn't vote" is complete BS

As is Hillary only getting 56.6% of the black vote, something that isn't reflected in ACTUAL results at all. The trend line on the graph is not linear. The Sanders/Clinton line has crossed several times in the past month. Several 10 point swings indicates a volatile poll with an inexplicably large MOE.

[vdogg]

38. Hmmm...

This source seems suspect. Below is the Reuters/Ipsos poll from the same timeframe that is posted on the 538 website and used in their calculations.

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,PARTY_ID_:1

It appears that the person in the article manipulated the cross tabs and posted it as an actual result.

[pandr32]

59. Yep! Stunning all right--stunningly concocted!

[muriel_volestrangler]

39. Important note: that includes Democrats/leaners who are unlikely to vote in the primary

If you go to the link they based the article on:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131

you see there are a series of filter options underneath the graph. In 'political', you can select 'likely Democratic primary voter'. If you do, you get:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,PARTY_ID_:1

and the numbers become:

Clinton 51.0%
Sanders 44.0%

[obamanut2012]

40. I was coming to post this

Yes, the author of the article (NOT SAYING THE OP) cherrypicked data.

[intheflow]

45. I'm a Bernie supporter but this illustrates exactly why polls are bullshit.

Numbers can be manipulated. And so much of the populace just eats whatever the media feeds them.

[bvar22]

64. "likely Democratic voters"

You ARE aware that Bernie has a large Independent following that support him,
as well as cross over Republicans?
Yes?
You ARE aware of that fact?

[muriel_volestrangler]

66. The 51/44 split is for everyone likely to vote in the Democratic primary

whether they call themselves Democrats, independent or Republican. You can tell that because the filter I showed was just "likely Democratic primary voter", and not the additional ones under 'party affiliation: Democrat/Republican/Independent/other'.

I presume you knew that, but thought a sarcastic post pretending not to would be a good laugh.

Here are the figures if you use the party affiliation filter:

Democrat: 654 respondents; Sanders 47.3%, Clinton 43.9%
Independent: 213 respondents; Sanders 35%, Clinton 23%
Republican: too few respondents to give a meaningful figure
Other: 125 respondents; Sander 24%, Clinton 18%
(with no filter at all, the total is 998, which implies there were just 6 Republicans answering the Sanders/Clinton question)

But the problem for Sanders is that if you use the "likely Democratic primary voter" filter, it's down to 261 respondents, and they divide 51% for Clinton, 44% for Sanders. Too many of the people who prefer Sanders aren't enthusiastic enough to vote in a primary, so far (for "likely general election voter", he has a 45.6% to 41.4% lead, among 716 respondents). If he can persuade them to vote in a primary, he has a good chance.

[LiberalElite]

41. Kick! nt

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

46. Why am I not "stunned"? Because I'm not a inside the money-dome reporter.

I actually look for news, not entertainment.

[lamp_shade]

47. It got quiet in here rather suddenly. See Posts #38 and #39.

[WillyT]

50. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

51. I still think that's a weird poll, with 22.9% saying they won't vote for either. nt

[Faux pas]

52. YES!

[Babel_17]

55. Over the next month, the electorate as a whole will become more informed ...

Over the next month, the electorate as a whole will become more informed about both candidates. That's a good thing, and the voters in the primary can then weigh in the factor of electability more accurately, should they choose to do so.

Also by then we'll probably have the Republican field narrowed down to two actual contenders. Though Cruz might be impossible to clear from the field, given the liabilities of his opponents.

Either way, we'll have some idea of our chances. After losing to Bush in 2000 I don't assume we ever have a lock on a win if a Republican is in any kind of striking distance.

[HassleCat]

56. No true Scotsman! No true Scotsman!

They're not real democrats, because real democrats would not support an old socialist over the first woman to be elected president. There! I've run circles 'round you, logic-wise!

[Katashi_itto]

58. K&R

[Cobalt Violet]

60. Yay!

[lamp_shade]

61. Warning: Propaganda Sites Are Spreading Deceptive Bernie vs Hillary Poll Results

http://thedailybanter.com/2016/02/warning-propaganda-sites/

[leftynyc]

63. Let' see

A brand new thread about Harry Reid endorsing Hillary gets locked and told to post in GD-P and this one has been up for 15 hours with no locking. Wonder what the difference could be. Wracking my brain.

[JackRiddler]

72. The Reid thread was "new," but the news was not.

Milquetoast establishment politician who was already working openly for Clinton pretends he's "endorsing" for the first time is not LBN. Endorsements generally aren't LBN, unless it's Obama, Warren, or Beyonce.

[leftynyc]

80. That's a bunch of bullshit

The Senate minority leader endorsing one of our candidates was not reported before yesterday so yes, the NEWS WAS NEW. That's a pathetic argument you're using. I would think you'd be embarrassed. Either the moderators put everything regarding the primary into GD-P or they don't. Yesterday put into stark relief what the real issue is.

[Babel_17]

67. http://polling.reuters.com/

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_14

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_13

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/

Sanders beats Trump by 13 points.

Clinton beats Trump by 6 and a half points.

Sanders leads Clinton by 6 and two tenths points.

Yesterday's (Feb. 23, 2016) results and not averaged results, Secretary Clinton's numbers improve if you use the results averaged over a period of time.

[Tarheel_Dem]

69. "Warning: Propaganda Sites Are Spreading Deceptive Bernie vs Hillary Poll Results"

"US Uncut and others are deceiving readers via an interactive Reuters polling app"

http://thedailybanter.com/2016/02/warning-propaganda-sites/



Good luck with that!!!!!!!

[hifiguy]

70. HRH is taking on water. Bernie is

taking on helium.

[fierywoman]

73. Bernie vs the repugs

For weeks now when the polls have shown him vs a repug, he's virtually always more points ahead of the repug than Hillary (she sometimes loses to the repug.)