Beneath Hillary Clinton’s Super Tuesday Wins, Signs of Turnout Trouble

[tabasco]

Source: NY Times

Hillary Clinton set out 10 months ago to inspire and energize the Democratic Party, hoping to bring together the rising American electorate of black, brown, young and female voters into a durable presidential coalition. But buried beneath Mrs. Clinton’s wide-ranging and commanding victories on Tuesday night were troubling signs of a party that has not yet rallied to her call.

Democratic turnout has fallen drastically since 2008, the last time the party had a contested primary, with roughly three million fewer Democrats voting in the 15 states that have held caucuses or primaries through Tuesday, according to unofficial election results tallied through Wednesday afternoon.

It declined in almost every state, dropping by roughly 50 percent in Texas and 40 percent in Tennessee. In Arkansas, Alabama and Georgia, the number of Democrats voting decreased by between a quarter and a third.

The falloff in Democratic primary turnout — which often reveals whether a candidate is exciting voters and attracting them to the polls — reached deep into some of the core groups of voters Mrs. Clinton must not only win in November, but turn out in large numbers. It stands in sharp contrast to the flood of energized new voters showing up at the polls to vote for Donald J. Trump in the Republican contest.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/us/politics/hillary-clinton-voter-turnout.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

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This is what happens when Democrats become more like republicans, and we put up with "leadership" of fools like Wasserman-Schultz.

[onehandle]

1. Bernie clearly doesn't inspire Democratic voters to vote. nt

[tabasco]

3. It appears nobody is inspiring Democratic voters to show up.

Why do you place the onus on Sanders?

[RoccoR5955]

7. Your comment

is a steaming pile of bovine fecal matter.
Hellery does not inspire voters, and you know it.

[roguevalley]

21. It's laughable that the one who brings thousands into

speeches and has inspired millions should have to answer for this when he's doing his part. Where are her massed rallies? Where are the millions who will stand in line for miles in freezing weather to hear her? Nowhere. There is an enthusiasm gap that's for sure but it isn't from Bernie.

[PatrynXX]

15. well better than Hillary thats obvious n/t

[RobertEarl]

2. Where turnout was better

In states where turnout was better, Bernie won or almost won.

Bernie has said all along that turnout was important. He knows.

[humbled_opinion]

4. LOL.... you are so right....

Is it too late to force Al Gore into the race ? .... .Just sayin...

[doc03]

5. Why is it Clinton that is a fault for turnout? What happened to all these new voters that

Bernie Sanders was supposed to be attracting. I think the turnout is low because everyone thought
Hillary would be the nominee from the get go.

[tabasco]

10. The frightening thing is that Sanders probably is attracting a lot of new voters,

but turnout is still very poor.

We very well could be watching Donald Fucking Trump being sworn in in January.

[doc03]

13. Everyone wrote Trump off from the beginning but

it is looking like with the help of the media he is going to be very hard to beat.
The more people try and knock him out the higher he goes.

[PatrynXX]

16. media wants a Hillary vs Donald contest

and they are fixing it to make sure it happens cause Ratings smh

[INdemo]

19. I think Republicans are getting ready to announce their candidate

Mitt Romney ...They have it in their minds he is the one to save the party from these Wacco s

[tikka]

24. Voters showed up in droves in Colorado

They showed up to support Bernie. Caucus locations were over whelmed in places and People were turned away in Boulder. In my precinct, it was at least 3 to 1 for Bernie. As one Hillary supporter said Hillary has the experience. Unfortunately, it's the wrong kind of experience.

[Svafa]

28. Yes, states with high turnout are states that go Bernie. nt

[Le Taz Hot]

30. Because that's Hillary's base.

Sanders' base is much wider and he has Independents showing up in droves.

[merrily]

6. The NYT is funny to pretend HRC started campaigning ten months ago.

As far as turn out, the two Democratic candidates are Hillary and a guy everyone has been saying since Day One can't possibly beat her or win the the general. Now explain to me why these same people are pretending to be surprised about turn out.

On the other side have been anywhere from 5 to 14 Republican clowns, duking it out while the DNC held off on debates.

Sh*t show all around.

[RoccoR5955]

9. Hellery started campaigning YEARS ago! n/t

[merrily]

11. Long before even Ready for Hillary started.

[INdemo]

20. Yes and she built what she thought was the most powerful

campaign ever. The most heavily funded with all the markers in place.The Corporate mafia including the Corporate media with
what she thought was a cake walk into the nomination.
Then entered Bernie Sanders and blew her plans all to hell

[redstateblues]

8. I think spring break has not helped Bernies turnout

He was supposed to drive turnout to historic levels

[PatrynXX]

17. wonder what happened to spring break that happened in actual spring

getting ready for another snowstorm tonight smh

[SoapBox]

12. And gawd forbid, she rig her way into the GE...

because we will lose the White House.

Every "anybody but Hillary" freak will come out of the woodwork combined with the usual pathetic Democrat turnout...well it would be ugly.

[zentrum]

14. "Leadership of Fools"

[Geronimoe]

22. Another Hillary misjudgement

Limit debates, run as the inevitable President. Flip flop on all issues so no one cares what you say. Parse everything with wiggle room, like a lawyer, so no one knows what you said, or where you stand.

[Justice]

23. When a candidate is projected to win by more than 20% - guess what, turnout is down.

Many of the states Hillary won and that Bernie won, they won big. There were only a few states that were projected to be close, and in most of those, turnout was just fine.

[JudyM]

25. Exactly ^^^this^^^. Many people don't get that their vote could bring another delegate to Bernie.

They think he's going to lose by a wide margin in their state and that is that.

[AgerolanAmerican]

26. It's all about Trump

Trump is collecting the poor and middle class blue collar voters, that's who the 3 million who went from voting Dem in 2008/12 (hoping for change from Obama) to voting GOP in 2016 are.

The Democratic Party is failing these voters. Sanders has been trying to give voice to them but the party machinery has been pulling out all the stops to make sure he is not heard. The schedule-a-debate-during-an-NFL-playoff trick was very specifically designed to make sure that this large slice of the electorate could not hear his message.

[djean111]

27. The Hillary campaign is deliberately depressing turnout with the "already won" bullshit.

Anyone who has mentioned this to me has told me that they will still vote in the primary, but won't bother with the GE if Hillary is the nominee.

No point in the canned lesser evil talk. Depressing and discouraging the vote will last until the GE. Not on Bernie's head at all.

Something that Hillary's folks should think about - if it is between Hillary and Trump, I see a certain fascination with - well, continuing Obama's legacy gives us the TPP, ever-higher ACA costs, the real possibility of more war, and ever-increasing college debt. So - why sign up for that again? No platitudes or bromides will have an effect on that, either.

[Calista241]

29. If 5% fewer Dem voters show up in November, it's going to be a disaster of epic proportions. n/t

[tabasco]

31. I wonder if people realize how bad it can get.

I believe 1929 was the last time republicans controlled all three branches of government.

[Angel Martin]

41. 2004-2006 as well

but i take your point.

[LannyDeVaney]

32. African-American turnout is up ...

and they are overwhelmingly voting for Clinton.

I just don't agree with the concern over the GE. It was going to be a tough slog for the Republicans under the best of conditions, and their pool of candidates is most definitely not the best of conditions - some would argue it is the worst possible case for them - and looking at the math, Sec. Clinton will win the nomination and the election with relative ease.

Anybody that denies that just has their head in the sand, in my opinion.

[tabasco]

33. Sorry, but that type of sentiment is what depresses turnout.

You are blind if you do not see Trump as a formidable candidate.

[LannyDeVaney]

34. Then I'll go ahead and order a walking cane ...

because I definitely do not see Trump as a formidable candidate against Hillary Clinton.

[tabasco]

35. The good news is that Clinton has a 3-point lead over Trump in polls nationwide.

Not exactly what I call a runaway, especially with Clinton's high negatives.

Sanders has an eight-point lead over Trump in polls nationwide.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

[themaguffin]

36. Oh Jesus. Primary turnout has NO correlation on GE turnout.

[tabasco]

37. That was not true in 2008.

Maybe you have data on other general election years?

[themaguffin]

38. it's more complicated than that

Trump being on the GOP ticket is motivating the GOP base, but look at a how many Republicans are going "Never Trump"
This is beyond normal primary infighting on the right. Trump will not get all of the non Trump vote.

On the flip side, Trump being on the GOP is a big motivation to beat him.

[tabasco]

39. Oh, okay.

Then I'll stop worrying.

[Angel Martin]

42. underestimate Trump, and end up like Jeb Bush

Trump has clearly connected with disaffected blue-collar workers as can be seen by his non-Repub vote in open primaries.

If Repubs lose some white collar and investor class voters in the coastal states, and gain millions of blue collar voters in the midwest where there will be many close races, this could be the biggest down ballot wreck since 1980.

[OldHippieChick]

40. Just a thought, but many

in the Democratic party are happy w/ either of our choices, so aren't overly concerned about primaries or caucuses. Wrong on their part, but people are lazy in general. The GE may be a whole different animal as people will come out in droves to vote against a Trump or a Cruz. But, it is incumbent on all of us to GOTV and pay particular attention to the Supreme Court.