U.S. presidential rivals Clinton, Sanders tied in support among Democrats: poll

[Lodestar]

Source: Reuters

The top contenders in both the Democratic and the Republican presidential nominating races have roughly equal support among members of their respective parties, according to a national Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday.

The results suggest the race to get onto the Nov. 8 presidential ballot is tightening, as candidates prepare for their next state contest, in New York next week.

In the Democratic race, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont each had 48 percent support, according to responses from 719 Democrats polled from April 8-12. The two have been tied frequently since February.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0X92IP

[Buzz Clik]

1. Are there any other polls? What do they show?

[Betty Karlson]

28. Or in other words: "I don't want this to be true."

Reality, unfortunately, does not always conform to custom-made push-polls.

[SammyWinstonJack]

29. Nailed it!

[Buzz Clik]

38. I don't need other words. I asked a question, and that was my intent.

The OP chose ONLY the Reuters poll for discussion. Of the polls released in the past week, only Reuters has it close.

Talk about denying reality! Please, quit being foul for just a moment and open your eyes.

[George II]

47. Or even other words, it's not true.

[Betty Karlson]

48. Are we nearing the point where you guys put your fingers in your ears and start singing:

"la la la I can't hear you"?

- because I heard that's Clinton's favorite song whenever GLBT ask for their rights.

[thesquanderer]

2. And that's where Bernie's struggle lies.

It's not enough to win 50% from here on out, he has to win more. That's why he'll do best in the open primaries, where the 50% of Dems he gets can be supplemented by a much larger share of independents.

[George II]

5. There are very few remaining "open" primaries, most are closed.

[thesquanderer]

6. Yup, that will make it even more difficult for him. (n/t)

[cloudythescribbler]

22. abolishing "closed" primaries MUST be one of the things Bernie delegates demand of the platform ...

... whether he is the nominee or not

I suspect that MANY of Hillary's own delegates would agree, and if he manages to hold his delegates together on this and many other issues both internal to party politics/process and on policy generally, there should be some concrete changes in the platform

I recognize that if Hillary gets the nomination, she and her camp will determine most of the main planks in the platform. But Bernie has a chance to win a lot of concessions at the Convention even under those circumstances

The reasons in principle why Independents, who are a huge and growing percentage of the population, should be able to vote in primaries and caucuses are many. First, Independents are crucial to victory in the general, and candidates like Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders who run strongly among independents should figure fully in the nominating process. Second, the notion of letting the 'neighbors' determine your 'house's interior decorating' just don't apply -- many voters registered as Independent are as important to the progressive Democrats as other less progressive Democrats. "Closed" primaries are a lot like voter ID laws -- they serve to narrow the voter base to the advantage of powerful elite interests in the elections

[George II]

26. I doubt that many DEMOCRATIC delegates would be interested in opening up more primaries...

...to non-Democrats that will affect the choice of the Democratic candidate.

[BlueMTexpat]

31. In fact, after the mischief

done by Indies and crossover Rs in this primary cycle who will never vote for a Dem in the GE no matter who the Dem candidate is, I won't be at all surprised if more primaries change to closed.

The idea is to elect a Democrat, not someone who merely seems to want to use Democratic party resources as a stepping-stone to achieve his goal and then repudiate the party altogether. The repudiation has been ongoing and recently has been more plain than ever to see.

[billhicks76]

41. Agreed.

Wouldn't make sense. The problem is we have more independent by large margins than we ever did in the past. This is because most people are disgusted with the Clinton and Bush families. This trend happened on their watch. It's no coincidence those 2 families are best friends. It a crime frankly.

[BlueMTexpat]

32. Closed primaries are nothing like

voter ID laws. But if it makes you happy to believe that ....

Lifelong and longtime Democrats are NOT "powerful elite interests" simply because they do not vote for Bernie. Sheesh!

[Gore1FL]

37. They are when party affiliation is changed without notice casuing people to be unable to vote.

Disenfranchisement either way. It's already happened this nomination phase.

[jwirr]

19. But polls have been consistently wrong in most elections this

time because they ignore or do not know how to find the young. Do we have reason to believe this is not so in this poll?

[thesquanderer]

24. I hope you're right! (n/t)

[jwirr]

34. We continually hear about the long lines waiting at the polls

and the caucuses. At my caucus some of us expected it because we had been going to Bernie meet ups. But they were totally unprepared and had to put up other tables, etc.

And this has happened across the country. There is no reason it will not happen in NY.

So I am glad the poll has us tied because that is one very good start.

[thesquanderer]

35. re: "There is no reason it will not happen in NY. "

Well, one difference is that, in some of these states, people could register (or declare/change their party affiliation if need be) right up to the day of the election, I believe. That's great for boosting turnout, and helps Bernie... but in New York, you have to have registered at least 25 days in advance, and existing voters have to have declared their party affiliation about 6 months in advance in order to be able to vote in the primary! That makes it a particularly tough state for him, but maybe he can pull it out, we'll see... I wrote about this at http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511712837

[jwirr]

36. Yes, that is a possible problem.

[BlueMTexpat]

33. "Consistently" wrong =

once: MI. Otherwise, the polls were pretty close to the mark. MI had an open primary where Indies and crossover Rs caused mischief.

National polls are a lot less reliable than state polls, btw. The ultimate polls = election days. The ultimate polls have Hillary ahead by 2.4 million+ votes so far.

[appalachiablue]

3. And Sanders beats Trump, by a good amount for some time. Clinton doesn't.

Last edited Wed Apr 13, 2016, 09:53 AM - Edit history (1)

'Bernie Beats Trump Mostly Soundly in Head-to-Head Polls But Media Ignores It", March 12, Daily Kos.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/3/12/1500411/-Bernie-Beats-Trump-Most-Soundly-in-Head-to-Head-Polls-But-Media-Ignores-It

[George II]

11. See this:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/general-election-projections-clinton-trump-cruz_us_570e3b60e4b0ffa5937d93a7

Early estimates give Clinton the advantage against the GOP. Sanders looks like a stronger general election candidate than Clinton in polls, but that might not tell us much about November. And how voters assess their finances has a lot to do with partisanship.

PROJECTION SHOWS CLINTON TROUNCING TRUMP AND CRUZ - Morning Consult: “If the presidential election was held today, businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would lose to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, according to an extensive Morning Consult analysis of 44,000 poll respondents. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is the only candidate who could beat Clinton in November. Both Trump and Cruz would lose to Clinton by considerable margins in a head-to-head race, winning just 210 and 206 electoral college votes, respectively. By contrast, Kasich comfortably beats Clinton, racking up 304 electoral college votes to her 234….The results show that the race is still up for grabs, with nearly 20 percent of registered voters saying they are undecided about who they’d vote for between Clinton and either Trump, Cruz or Kasich.”

[Akamai]

12. Also from the article above is this about Sanders:

"SANDERS IS OUTPERFORMING CLINTON IN GENERAL ELECTION POLLS - David Lightman: “Unimaginable at the start of the campaign, Bernie Sanders might be a stronger general election candidate for the Democrats than Hillary Clinton. He leads Donald Trump nationally by 20 points right now in a hypothetical general election matchup, more than double her 9-point lead, according to the latest McClatchy-Marist poll. He leads Sen. Ted Cruz by 12, while she is locked in a tie with the Texan....Sanders outperforms Clinton over Trump in the swing states of Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin, as well. And underlining all that: the independent senator from Vermont energizes and excites younger voters, he’s not dogged by an FBI investigation into use of a private email server and his anti-establishment message is perfectly pitched to the key of 2016. That’s not to say that would last.” [McClatchy]

"Why that may not mean he’s a stronger candidate - More from Lightman: “So far, Sanders has largely escaped serious criticism from Clinton, the news media, or Republicans…..Sanders is enjoying politics’ first impression syndrome, a honeymoon period in which he’s been seen as fresh, authentic and genuinely angry at Wall Street and income inequality....Should Sanders become the party’s nominee, Clinton’s barbs will be just the warmup act, as Sanders gets grilled over his big, expensive ideas and liberal voting record….’The less you know about a person, the more positive you’re going to feel,’ said [Larry] Sabato [director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics]. ‘Sanders really hasn’t been vetted yet.’” [McClatchy]

Go Bernie!!!

[George II]

14. "National" polls are a conglomeration of all 50 states, not individual states. That's not the way...

...Presidential elections are conducted. Presidents are elected by the Electoral College.

An exaggeration, but for all we know Sanders could have 75% of the "vote" in a few states and very low numbers in all other states, raising his "National" poll number but still leaving him far short in electoral votes. That's the point of the article I linked.

[SCantiGOP]

18. There is no argument here

Everyone knows Clinton will be the nominee, and it is apparent that she will win in a landslide over Trumpet Cruz.

[billhicks76]

42. Touché...But This Article Also Cites National Polls

Bernie could beat Clinton as its a state by state election process for primaries too.

[George II]

4. Kind of odd considering she has 2.5M more votes than Sanders.

[blackspade]

8. Not really.

She has 2.5m more votes now based on states that have released their vote totals.
That could change dramatically.
This could also be a symptom of buyers remorse in states that have already voted.
I guess it depends on which states the samples were from.
I think the after action analysis of this primary will be fascinating no matter who wins it.

[stupidicus]

21. it's a popular but misleading Hillarian talking point

imo

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Hillary-s-Disingenuous-Cla-by-Rob-Kall-2016-Presidential-Primary-Candidates_Hillary-Clinton-160401-967.html

but then, what's new eh? http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fact-check-clintons-latest-gun-law-broadside-on-sanders/ar-BBrHl5S?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=SL5ADHP

[frylock]

15. Nothing odd about it at all.

It's Mission Accomplished with Debbie Waterboy limiting exposure early. That and front loading the primary with conservative states are what has contributed to those 2.3 something million more votes.

[George II]

20. The individual states schedule their primaries/caucuses, not the DNC, and other than...

....starting a few weeks later this year, there are very few differences in the schedule this year than it was in 2008. Howard Dean was chairman in 2008. That blows the "Debbie" conspiracy theory, doesn't it?

2008 Schedule:

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/2008pdates.pdf

[frylock]

23. I don't believe I said that the DNC was responsible for the primary schedule..

I merely observed that conservative states are front-loaded, which, coincidentally, tends to favor the conservative candidate. Yes, Howard Dean was the chair in 2008. What does that have to do with delaying debates and hiding them on holiday weekends during this primary?

[George II]

25. You said this:

"It's Mission Accomplished with Debbie Waterboy limiting exposure early"

Now we're shifting the discussion to debates? BTW, after most of the debates Sanders' poll numbers dropped.

[frylock]

27. Sanders' poll numbers dropped?

Last edited Wed Apr 13, 2016, 12:03 PM - Edit history (1)

His poll numbers have done nothing but rise! The discussion has never shifted. We've been complaining about limited debates and dodgy scheduling since jump. And as predicted, the more that people see of Sanders, the more popular he becomes. The converse applies to Hillary. Now it's just a matter of running out the clock. Mission Accomplished.

[BeanMusical]

30. +1000

[FighttheFuture]

39. Also, this count does not consider caucus states at all, who knows what those totals

might make this. These are states that Bernie does very well in.

[George II]

40. Caucus states have been relatively small except for Washington and Minnesota....

....and in most of them the results were very close, and Clinton did win two caucus states.

Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, etc. aren't going to make up 2.5M votes.

So let's liberally call it 2 million votes.

[FighttheFuture]

46. Call it what you will... the more people get to know Bernie, the more vote for him.

I have a real fear that the R's will get their shit together, kick out Trump/Cruz, and push in a Kaysuck or Rand "LIEbertarian" Paul and they will beat Hillary "Goldman" Clinton. Her negatives are too high and she is not motivating the base with her Oligarchic bullshit.

[billhicks76]

43. You Know That's Misleading

What about caucuses based on popular vote ? Not included. Cmon. Get real.

[Bradical79]

45. One isn't really relevant to the other

We don't have vote totals from all states, and you can't really compare a vote total gathered over the course of months with a poll that only represents an estimate of support today.

[zentrum]

7. Plus, Hillary's

……disapproval ratings are high. Especially among independents, let alone the base voter. So it's a real concern is that she'll suppress Democratic turnout in the general. Most people are not as scared of Cruz and Kasich as we know to be.

This is just not how a Democracy should be working—where less and less actual citizens actually vote because they feel that have no one to vote for who really has their interests at heart. That's a sham Democracy.

I'll vote for HRC if I have to, but it will be a really depressing act to carry out. She makes me worry not only about not going to war, but also about not ever getting Single Payer, protecting SS, bank regulation and prosecution, student debt—and also, the Democratic Party itself. Don't think our values can stand any more years of Clinton/DLC influence. It's already virtually a one-party country: The Corporate Party.

[LibDemAlways]

9. In California the only Hillary signs I've seen are

ones proclaiming "Hillary for Jail." I'm not being snarky. I'm calling it as I see it. Meanwhile, "Feel the Bern" signs are all over the place. I am just not seeing enthusiasm for Hillary. If she ultimately gets the nomination, I think she's in for a tough time convincing half the Democrats that a vote for her isn't a vote for same old same old status quo or worse.

[billhicks76]

44. US Sen. Jeff Merkley Just Endorsed Sanders

Expect more to come. That's what I'm hearing.

[FailureToCommunicate]

10. Were "Independents" included? If they are added, that puts Bernie far above half.

This poll presumably looked at support for their candidate of choice, not whether upcoming primaries are "closed" or open, as the media only talks about, if they mention Bernie at all.

[Ligyron]

13. (O) Kay-sick is the one we need to worry about

Hopefully, Trump and Cruz will stop him from being the non-elected GOPuke candidate.

[navarth]

17. agreed.

[iamthebandfanman]

16. Let me just say

"UGH!" at the wouldn't vote percentage ! UGH!