Who's More Likely to Beat Donald Trump — Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?

[Omaha Steve]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by tammywammy (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: NBC News

by HANNAH HARTIG, JOHN LAPINSKI and STEPHANIE PSYLLOS

Hillary Clinton holds a 12-point lead over Bernie Sanders nationally, but in a hypothetical match-up against Donald Trump, Sanders does much better than the current Democratic front-runner.

As Ted Cruz and John Kasich exited the Republican primary race last week — making Trump the party's presumptive nominee — Clinton and Sanders have used Trump's candidacy to argue that they would be in the best position to defeat him in the general election in November.

When respondents in our NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll were asked whether they would cast a vote for Trump or either of the Democratic candidates still in the race, Sanders is the favorite over Trump by 13 points.

Clinton also beats Trump, but the race is decidedly closer — 49 percent to 44 percent. These results are according to the latest from the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll conducted online from May 2 through May 8 of 12,714 adults including 11,089 registered voters.

FULL story at link. MAY 10 2016, 6:23 AM ET



Read more: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/who-s-more-likely-beat-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-or-n570766

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Meanwhile Hillary has her hands FULL with Trump in another poll: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in a dead heat in three key swing states: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/05/10/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-quinnipiac-poll-florida-ohio-pennsylvania/84173448/

My thanks to NeoConsSuck for posting this poll in LBN...

[fbc]

1. Clinton is a candidate who can't win the swing states...

...winning the nomination on the strength of states that don't matter in the general election.

If there was ever an election for super delegates to step in for the good of the party, this is it.

[Chicago1980]

3. Bernie is a candidate who can't win against Clinton.

You can't get one without the other.

[tom_kelly]

10. Thank you for your work today. The HRC SuperPAC will pay you. n/t

[Human101948]

11. Don't blame them, they were told it was so...

So it must be.

[Cryptoad]

25. Hope he makes as much as u will from RNC

[liberalmike27]

42. She

She doesn't have 3 million more votes--while the "number" might be correct, all the caucus States he won by HUGE margins, would have contributed far more votes to him, had they had a general election, where everyone gets to vote. Caucuses skew the vote.

The whole of the South, is where most of the 3 million extra votes are--and they won't mean a thing, when it comes to the general election. These States will go to Republicans--all of those 2 million extra votes she got because of the low number of debates, and lack of Sanders exposure early will be pointless.

And most of her extra delegates, and many more of her extra votes, were received in States with closed primaries. Obviously the lists were manipulated, intersected with NGP VAN stolen databases from the Sanders camp, during the data breach. What a brilliant ploy that was, BLAME goes to Sanders the night before one of the few debates--all the while they still the list of Sanders supporters and contributors. Later this list would be intersected with State lists, their statuses changed to "other" which keeps them from voting for Sanders, but leaves it open for them to vote in the general election.

We need to get rid of this closed primary BS.

[Cryptoad]

51. HE

u mean those caucus states that let Republicans and Independents vote ? Yea it would be a shame to have a democratic primaries where only democratic can vote....... we need to get rid of letting independents running as democrats. WHaa whaaa,,, whaa,,,,,

[lakeguy]

62. yes, heaven forbid we have a candidate chosen

by the same voters who will vote in the GE.

[KPN]

53. +1000!

We need to take back the Democratic Party.

[TwilightZone]

63. Clinton has a lead on Trump in Florida, and there's little reason...

to believe that will change. Trump is polling at 11% of Latinos nationwide. If anything, he's as close as he's going to get.

Last I checked, Florida was in the South.

[Plucketeer]

41. Yeah butt...

Wee Bernie folk keep losing sight of the OVER-ARCHING consideration here....... IT'S HER TURN !!!

The GOWN'S been bought
The CROWN'S been bought
All we need is the ceremony!

[Cryptoad]

54. Glad yall are getting the chance to,,,,

recruit more voters for Trump . keep those $27 a rollin in

[Plucketeer]

60. "recruit more voters for Trump".....

Oh yes! We're right in step with you there!


May 10, 2016 - Clinton-Trump Close In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University

FLORIDA: Clinton 43 - Trump 42; Sanders 44 - Trump 42

OHIO: Clinton 39 - Trump 43; Sanders 43 - Trump 41

PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 43 - Trump 42; Sanders 47 - Trump 41

I think I can see Judge Judy for the SCOTUS!

[Ikonoklast]

47. Must Correct The Record, amiright?

Hillary must have bought Craftsman, so many tools being used.

[George II]

14. Sanders couldn't beat Clinton in the "swing states".

[d_legendary1]

18. Sanders couldn't beat Clinton in "Closed Primary" States

Fixed it for ya!

[George II]

19. Sanders couldn't beat Clinton in high-minority states - fixed it for ya.

[Hare Krishna]

55. Tell that to Hawaii.

They are offended that you think they're not a high-minority state.

Washington wants their status back.

[Laser102]

23. I have been reading some things of Sanders past. Does not look good.

[floriduck]

57. LOLOLOLOL You're so clever. Is that code for I just wanna say something, anything.

[andrewv1]

2. Might not matter; Biden to Give Policy Speech at University of Tampa. Looks like the Elite might...

be getting ready to jettison Madam POS.

You think Sanders supporters are going to be happy with another one of these Centrist Puppets stealing the nomination from him?

Hell, he won't even need to rig the vote in the primaries this far along.
Instead, Uncle Joe can now just "parachute" into Philly chosen by the rich & powerful because they need someone who will make sure they don't pay their taxes.

And of course the rest of us are supposed to pay their share instead.

http://tampa.cbslocal.com/2016/05/09/biden-to-give-policy-speech-at-university-of-tampa/

[7962]

4. Ha! She's not going ANYWHERE, trust me.

Whether we like it or not, she will never walk away. Sanders would HAVE to get more delegates

[jtuck004]

7. Biden has been off and on again more times than Ross Perot, and that did that fellas campaign in.

I doubt he could improve on Mrs. Clinton's showing.

[7962]

5. Looks just like the GOP side; Kasich was by far the better candidate.

So of COURSE they pick the only person people like LESS than HRC!!

[retrowire]

6. vote Hillary!

If you're looking forward to four years of SCANDAL SCANDAL SCANDAL headlines and an entirely fragile presidency that is consistently being sought out for impeachment purposes.

[Enthusiast]

8. Kicked and recommended!

[randr]

9. As we near the end

and Trump refines his rhetoric it will become a race of the outsiders against the insiders. Across the country people will be looking to throw the bums out. Anyone associated with current political ties is history.
Chose your weapon carefully.

[TwilightZone]

33. The reelection rate in 2014 was 95%, and losers don't have coattails.

There's little reason to believe that, Trump or no Trump, there's going to be any kind of significant anti-incumbent surge. It's always batted about as though it's inevitable, yet it never happens.

Besides, losers don't have coattails. If Trump gets hammered in November, as seems quite likely, the only likely (anti-incumbent) scenario is that Democrats pick up seats in both houses. That scenario has little or nothing to do with Trump's alleged outsider status and everything to do with the fact that he's abhorrent.

[Andy823]

12. Another online poll

Why is it that the Bernie gang thinks these mean anything?

[George II]

13. The most important word is in the first sentence - "hypothetical".

[beastie boy]

15. "If the elections were held today"...

But if the elections were held after Trump and the GOP smear machine were finished with with Bernie, the result would have been a lot different.

They haven't even started working on Bernie, mostly because they don't see him as a threat. And they just about finished with Hillary - after more than 20 years of going after her they have nothing more left to hang on her. And she still beats the crap out of Trump.

[George II]

22. They've been coddling Sanders because they would prefer to run against him. Thankfully...

....that will never happen.

[liberal N proud]

16. Then why isn't Bernie beating Hillary

[zeemike]

38. Democrats are not the majority of voters.

Independents are.

[TwilightZone]

39. Neither is a majority, and Democrats are the largest voting bloc now.

Based on polling averages, Democrats are at 36% and trending upward. Independents are at 31% and trending downward.

Neither is a majority.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification

[liberal N proud]

56. Do you have statistics to back that up

Or is this just more BS speak?

[Gregorian]

17. I don't really care about Hillary Clinton.

Is she running for something?

[Ikonoklast]

52. Hillary is taking over as CEO for Marissa Meyer at Yahoo.

Hillary will run this country into the ground just like Meyer did to Yahoo, them leave office with hundreds of millions of dollars.

[TwilightZone]

20. We don't elect presidents based on popular vote, as President Al Gore could tell you.

We use the electoral college. As for the EC, Clinton is well ahead: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/04/upshot/electoral-map-trump-clinton.html

In fact, her lead is significant enough that Trump could gain 5% in every state in the country and still lose.

Sanders also hasn't been vetted. After a few months of being called a commie (and worse), his numbers may not hold up.

[Botany]

21. Bernie is not going to be the nominee

End of story.

[Cryptoad]

26. Bern got a new shipment of Pixie Dust

[SmittynMo]

46. And if he does win?

I wonder where that Pixie dust will end up?

[houston16revival]

24. Donald Trump is most likely to beat Donald Trump

if the media pays attention to his words and his past

[Thinkingabout]

27. So far it will not be Sanders as the DNC nominee so the polls will not really matter.

[Cryptoad]

28. I've got a dog that ,,,

could beat Trump by 50 pts ,,, but it really doesnt matter , does it?

[PatrickforO]

29. I'm going with Sanders on this one.

If it is Clinton I'll have to hold my nose.

But Trump???????

No.

Just NO.

[tonyt53]

30. Polls? Live and die by polls if ya want

But the reality is that Bernie would be hammered by Trump. Few people over the age of 50 will vote for a socialist. And that isn't a poll; that is a fact.

[TwilightZone]

36. It's also a poll - 35% have a positive view of socialism

Last edited Tue May 10, 2016, 11:17 AM - Edit history (1)

Only 35% of those polled have a positive impression of socialism.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/191354/americans-views-socialism-capitalism-little-changed.aspx

I'm kind of surprised, actually. Sanders' perceived popularity should be swinging it upward, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Either it has its limits or some of those polled aren't equating him with socialism.

[whatthehey]

31. Multiple ways to answer that

1) Pragmatic/Realistic - Clinton, because she is far more likely to be running against him as the nominee of the other major party.

Assuming the question were hypothetical, though, there's still multiple ways to answer, and current polls are pretty weak in any camp as predictive criteria. So, pretending the D primary is a coin flip:

2) Why Clinton's more likely to win - Greater political skill, more mature and capable "machine" of surrogates, organizers, fund-raisers, more polished and nuanced in debate to avoid a simple insult shout-fest head to head which favors Trump in that his supporters look for that kind of thing, historic opportunity for first woman to win, better down-ticket relationships and support, deep-pocket donors, most thoroughly vetted candidate in history who is essentially scandal-proof as short of an actual conviction, any accusation need, and should, be greeted only with "Christ another wacky made up scandal about me. Nope it's crap. And I didn't kill Vince Foster or have an affair with Janet Reno either. Next?". Major obstacle - a lot of people hate her. Minor obstacle - poor indy support but likely to coalesce among the sensible ones at least given the alternative.

3) Why Sanders is more likely to win - more enthusiastic support from traditional low turn-out non-core Dems, better ability to use the "bully pulpit", more engaging and accessible priority list for the beleaguered lower socioeconomic echelons, less damaged by scandalmongering machine however accurate, less threatening to high-turnout white male voter bloc, better attack dog when needed, can demonstrate support among indies and some Rs. Major obstacle - laughably easy for the RW attack machine to make a lot of people hate him, probably more than do HRC, as his "optics" are terrible especially among middle aged and above high-turnout voters. Minor obstacle - needs more detail and breadth of poliucy at his fingertips, which is not too hard to achieve with the right coaching.

Who then is more likely? Need more clairvoyance than the lovechild of Nostradamus and Allison Dubois to guess. Depends on the stomach of the electorate for visceral nonsense from Trump and how they would weigh visceral sensible generalities versus cerebral nuanced vagueries compared to him.

[TwilightZone]

45. Nice summary

And significantly more on-topic and relevant than the usual Clinton vs. Sanders stuff that passes for debate here.

[zentrum]

32. Yup. The DNC may have ruined us.

Nice goin' Debbie!

[jalan48]

34. It's troubling that Hillary is the best thing that the Democratic Party establishment can offer.

In a time that demands radical change we are given a conservative, Wall Street candidate.

[Duval]

35. K&R!

Still going for Bernie in this household.

[Tactical Peek]

37. If the 2016 presidential election were held today . . .

. . . then it would be decided by the Electoral College vote, as required by the Constitution. As TwilightZone mentioned above.

There Trump will be buried.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-that-matters/




It will be enjoyable, imo.

[houston16revival]

40. Sanders has not been subjected to attack ads as much

and that is skewing the numbers

SOCIALIST!!!!! attack ads would adjust those numbers downward

and Democrats in Congress would be reluctant to intervene

Bernie has Democrat's ears, but the rest of the populace will resist big time

[Mz Pip]

44. ^^^ This

No GOP ads have run against Bernie. They will be brutal outlining all the evils of socialism. They font have to be true. They won't be true but they will be brutal and effective. And Trump will have plenty of money to do it.

[houston16revival]

48. Exactly

Socialism would become a wedge issue that Trump would use to separate

Democrats from their party, their nominee, themselves

Trump is blurring ideology, a strategy that began with GWB in 2000

This is a major obstacle for us

[Omaha Steve]

49. He started at below 5% and wins the I's over Hillary

[Amimnoch]

43. Looks like we got 2 winners to me.

As long as the end result is toasting the donald.

[houston16revival]

50. In a toaster

not with champagne

[NurseJackie]

58. Easy answer! The one who wins the nomination!

Hillary will be our nominee. Hillary will defeat Trump.

[Attorney in Texas]

59. A big nonpartisan or weakly partisan segment of the population will vote for whoever promises change

These people would prefer the optimistic change that Sanders promises over the spiteful change that Trump offers, but they will settle for spiteful change over the status quo rich-get-richer-poor-get-poorer model that Hillary serves as the chief apologist for.

[ananda]

61. Those closed primaries hurt Sanders ...

... because Clinton had the ability to game and confused the Democrats.

In open primaries, Sanders was the clear winner because everyone could vote.

[tammywammy]

64. Locking, analysis

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