Murder Rate Spike Could Be 'Ferguson Effect,' DOJ Study Says

[Freddie Stubbs]

Source: NPR

The horrific attack in an Orlando gay nightclub has captured the nation's attention, but the great majority of homicides are not due to mass shootings.

And in the last year or so the murder rate has jumped in America's big cities.

"We are in the midst of a very abrupt, precipitous and large crime increase," says Richard Rosenfeld, a respected criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. He is the author if a study released Wednesday by the Justice Department examining reasons for the increase.

Specifically, murder is spiking — in urban areas. Rosenfeld says last year in the country's 56 biggest cities, homicides jumped 17 percent.

Read more: http://www.npr.org/2016/06/15/482123552/murder-rate-spike-attributed-to-ferguson-effect-doj-study-says

[BootinUp]

1. Yesterday on MSNBC they were showing gun death numbers just over

the weekend. Staggering is the word I would use. And very troubling. Increases in this kind of problem can take a long damn time to reverse. Something needs to be done sooner rather than later to address it.

[7962]

2. Its a CULTURE problem.

Guns have always been available to crooks. But today the culture has changed to one where violence is glorified. I call it "tough guy" syndrome. Everyone wants to look like a tough guy/gang banger/thug/badass. Its not that hard to figure out. It starts with the families. 50 yrs ago everyone would watch everyone else's kid when they were out and about. And if they did something wrong, they were called out on it. And the kids knew it & were afraid of it. Today, you try to call out someone elses kid & THEY will come after YOU instead of correcting the kid
There have been fistfights forever; now people pull a gun over the dumbest things

[The2ndWheel]

6. People are too busy to watch everyone else's kid

Plus, nobody really likes a busybody. Plus, everyone's definition of what is wrong is different. Did something wrong. What does that mean? It's mind your own damn business. If you try and get involved, your sins will get brought up, and then the fight begins. We live in a more subjective reality than ever.

[7962]

12. People really arent any busier now than in the past. They just think they are

plenty of studies out there showing that. Heres one:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/the-myth-that-americans-are-busier-than-ever/371350/

The rest of your post just proves my point. everyones definition of whats wrong was probably different 50 yrs ago too. But people didnt get in an uproar over it
Families are no longer together nearly as much as 50 yrs ago. Blame govt for a lot of that, blame culture for the rest. And grown people trying to act like they're still teenagers while "raising" kids doesnt help either. When "mom" is more worried about what to wear to the club than what her kdi is doing in the streets, this is the shit that happens.

[The2ndWheel]

17. There are fewer adults at home than in the past

Whether that's both parents working, or like you said, both parents not in the same picture. That alone is going to make the ability to watch everyone else's kid more difficult.

We live in a society that increasingly wants people's choices to be respected, and not judged. That will create a reality where it's mind your own damn business. Don't worry about what I'm doing, and don't worry about what my kid is doing. Who the hell are you? Who made you God?

If we're going to do that, then there's going to be good and bad with it. The good part is more people are able to live their life how they want to live it, and we're not tied to people or places as much. The bad part is that more people are able to live their life how they want to live it, so a certain sense of community disappears.

[7962]

20. i agree. "Who the hell are you?" Thats it in a nutshell. nt

[Orrex]

3. But! But! But gun-enablers assure us that the murder rate is steadily dropping!

We need more guns--stat!

[Just reading posts]

7. Do you think it hasn't?

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0873729.html

Rate for murder and nonnegligent manslaughter per 100,000 people in the United States.

1991 9.8
1992 9.3
1993 9.5
1994 9.0
1995 8.2
1996 7.4
1997 6.8
1998 6.3
1999 5.7
2000 5.5
2001 5.6
2002 5.6
2003 5.7
2004 5.5
2005 5.9
2006 6.1
2007 5.9
2008 5.4
2009 5.0
2010 4.8
2011 4.7
2012 4.7
2013 4.5
2014 4.5

Source: Crime in the United States, FBI, Uniform Crime Reports.

[Orrex]

10. Does that include 2015 or 2016 to date?

Did the article in the OP make up its numbers?

Also, does "slightly less carnage" really seem like something to crow about?

[Just reading posts]

11. No, as far as I know 2014 is the latest year for which stats are available from the FBI. At least

that's what a quick Google search turned up.

In any case, the overall trend for the last 25 years is very much down, is it not?

[Orrex]

13. I don't know about "very much"

Also, my point is that there is no evidence that the slow decline has anything to do with the proliferation of guns (as asserted by gun-enablers).

[Just reading posts]

15. It's less than half what it was in 1991. That's a huge drop.

Also, my point is that there is no evidence that the slow decline has anything to do with the proliferation of guns (as asserted by gun-enablers).

Correlation and causation can be tricky. What we can state unequivocally is that while there are far more guns in this country than in 1991, there is far less murder.

This is precisely the opposite of what was predicted by those advocating gun control over the years ("It will be the Wild West!&quot .

[LanternWaste]

37. Modern trauma centers are much more efficient.

While there are far more guns in this country than in 1991, there is far less murder..."

In 1991, 51% of households owned a gun, only 42% in 2014. Modern trauma centers are much more efficient. The number of police officers increased considerably in the 1990s. Changing demographics of an aging population... regardless of the unsourced, Wild West allegations.

[alarimer]

28. It might have a lot to do with how many survive gunshots.

It seems like medicine does a better job of helping people who have been shot now than they did even 20 years ago. Which might account for some of the drop. It's not a murder if they don't die.

[tabasco]

21. Let's look at all gun crime, shall we?

More recent years off the graph show an increase. Looks to me like gun crime is still at a very high level in the USA and not declining.

[Just reading posts]

23. Almost a 50% drop since 1991. It's leveled off, granted.

[tabasco]

34. Gun death rate rising.

[Just reading posts]

35. That's the gun death rate, not the gun murder rate. Not the same thing.

The slight increase can be attributed to the increase in the suicide rate.

The graph also shows absolute numbers, not the per capita rate.

[NickB79]

30. Your graph isn't adjusted for population growth, however

We've added almost 100 million Americans since the start of your graph in 1973, a 33% increase in population size.

If you want to be taken seriously, you need to adjust for this.

[tabasco]

33. Gun death rate rising

[NickB79]

36. And that death rate you pointed to is from rising suicide rates, not increased homicides

Pay attention to the discrepency between your two graphs: the first one you posted did in fact discuss murders, and showed roughly 12,000 murders per year in the US from firearms use. This graph, however, is lumping suicides and homicides together to reach 32,000, which is an entirely different ball of yarn in this discussion.

And of the 32,000 deaths in this country directly due to firearms, 20,000 of them are intentional, self-inflicted gunshot wounds. It's no secret that the suicide rate in this country has been going up in recent years even as homicide rates declined in the 1990's and 2000's before leveling off in the past 5 years.

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/04/rising-suicide-rates/479475/

Suicide rates had been falling in the U.S. between 1986 and 1999, but appear to rising again. The report shows that though suicide is one of the biggest causes of death for young people, suicide rates are increasing for middle-aged Americans, as well. The authors of the study found that distress related to jobs and personal finances were linked to that increase. Additionally, the study found that the suicide rate rose the most among Native Americans—89 percent for women and 38 percent for men.

Once again, the HOMICIDE rate has been falling for the past 25 years per FBI statistics, and is now as low as it was when my parents were high school sweethearts in the 1970's. In the meantime, the suicide rate has been ratcheting up. Unfortunately, most gun control laws that we either have on the books now, or have been proposed, would do very, very little to reduce the suicide rate.

I'd love to see a discussion here on DU about ways to reduce the number of people who shoot themselves to death every year get as much interest as a thread like this one. It's a very important topic that our society has been far too quiet about.

[Kelvin Mace]

4. "Specifically, murder is spiking — in urban areas."

Wow, except for the fact that urban areas have high population densities, and high concentrations of mentally ill people, plus high numbers of easy to obtain firearms, I can't think of a reason why murder rates would spike except the "Ferguson Effect".

[7962]

14. Why are guns easy to obtain in urban areas, when they're more regulated there?

Obviously they're coming from areas where its even easier to obtain them, yet THOSE areas arent turning into shooting galleries. And how many of the crimes we see on a regular basis are committed by mentally ill folks? not that many.
when crime stats are figured they adjust for population; which is why a smaller city can have a higher rate than a larger city with more deaths.
Its a combo of all these things, plus the culture that makes people think every little problem should be solved with a gun

[Freddie Stubbs]

22. Urban areas have always had those problems. Why has the murder rate spiked last year?

[Kelvin Mace]

26. I dunno, maybe the non-stop fear-mongering

by politicians and the media. The police demonstrating no regard for the law, killing with impunity.

Little things like that.

[Trust Buster]

5. The police have had to back off a bit.

[GliderGuider]

8. A symptom of General Adaptation Syndrome?

In 1936, Hungarian scientist Hans Selye introduced a model of stress response he called the General Adaptation Syndrome. It shows three phases of the effects of stress on an organism.

http://www.essenceofstressrelief.com/general-adaptation-syndrome.html


ALARM STAGE -

Your first reaction to stress recognizes there’s a danger and prepares to deal with the threat, a.k.a. the fight or flight response. Activation of the HPA axis, the nervous system (SNS) and the adrenal glands take place.

The excess production of the cortisol hormone can cause damage to cells and muscle tissues. Stress related disorders and disease from cortisol include cardiovascular conditions, stroke, gastric ulcers, and high blood sugar levels.

RESISTANCE STAGE -

If a stressful condition persists, your body adapts by a continued effort in resistance and remains in a state of arousal.

Problems begin to manifest when you find yourself repeating this process too often with little or no recovery. Ultimately this moves you into the final stage.

EXHAUSTION STAGE -

At this phase, the stress has continued for some time. Your body’s ability to resist is lost because its adaptation energy supply is gone. Often referred to as overload, burnout, adrenal fatigue, maladaptation or dysfunction – Here is where stress levels go up and stay up!

The chronic stress of modern life - exacerbated by poor nutrition, urban overcrowding and the ratcheting worries of a deteriorating economy and disintegrating social support networks - are a factor in many or even most of the physical and psychological ailments that now bedevil societies around the world to one degree or another.

Cancer, heart disease, obesity, hypertension, depression, anxiety disorders, generalized anger, autism, anti-social behavior, addictions, religious fundamentalism, and the fear of other that lies behind homophobia, misogyny, religious intolerance, anti-immigrant behavior and punitive legal fixations ... there is scarcely an aspect of our behavior these days that has not been touched by the malignant effects of unrelieved stress.

Human beings did not evolve to live the way we do today. Spending 200,000 years as hunter-gatherers did not give us the tools we would have needed for this transition to urban, technological environments, let alone to thrive in them. We are not handling our new circumstances well at all. The evidence tells us that things are getting ever worse as our numbers grow, the pace of life speeds up, and the opportunities for respite become few and far between. I suspect that we cannot continue this way or much longer before a species-wide nervous and physical breakdown will roll over the world like a tsunami.

The best we can do to enhance our personal chances for psychological survival is to identify and root out the sources of stress in our lives one by one:

Where do you live?
What is your work?
What are your hobbies?
How secure is your social support network?
Do you make a point of cultivating a quiet life, through meditation or periodic withdrawal?
Do you decline to argue?
Do you spend time in nature?
Do you frequently turn off the TV and the Internet?
Do you declare large swathes of your life to be politics-free zones?

Make no mistake, we are engaged in a daily fight for psychological survival, in which the enemy is the very modernity we claim to love and need. I wish everyone the best of luck in this life-or-death struggle.

[Mojorabbit]

29. +1000 nt

[Helen Borg]

9. The more people have nothing to lose...

And the more people will use their guns to make a statement on their way out.

What do people who know they are stuck in a soul-sucking, minimum wage dead end job for the rest of their life have to lose?

[matt819]

16. I haven't read the study, but. . .

that won't stop me from commenting.

I don't buy it.

Here's something from the linked article: "Specifically, murder is spiking — in urban areas. Rosenfeld says last year in the country's 56 biggest cities, homicides jumped 17 percent."

Homicides jumped 17% in the 56 biggest cities. Read that again. 56 cities. Maybe the report drills down on this number. I've read that homicides are down in many urban areas. Sure, Chicago is out of control. Take Chicago out of the sample, and what does that do to the rate. Rather than take such a broad brush approach, and draw the Ferguson Effect conclusion, perhaps it would make more sense to take a look at those areas that have shown significant increases and then take a look at the reasons for those increases. I doubt there's a Ferguson effect at work in Chicago. Chicago PD doesn't have a rep as wallflowers. And if they are stepping back from a more aggressive response, then it might make sense to look at other factors.

The author concludes in his study that some of the increase may be attributable to "some version of the Ferguson effect." He then goes on to explain that statement and, in a way, walk back that conclusion.

Unfortunately, in an era of press release reporting, I doubt we'll see much in-depth reporting on this report and that the RW will use the facile headline as the basis for their continued contempt for African-Americans and their blind support of the police.

[forest444]

18. More like the 'letting the Brady Bill lapse' effect.

[Freddie Stubbs]

24. The assault weapons ban expired in 2004.

[forest444]

25. Socioeconomic trends usually lag pertinent changes by a few years.

[tabasco]

19. Don't tell the NRA crowd!

They still regurgitate the tired talking point, "Crime has been going down for decades!!" as an argument against gun control. In fact, violent crime surged in the early 90's due to crack cocaine, and then rapidly declined when the epidemic was brought under control. Gun control opponents have been using that steep crime rate decline (after the rate surge) as proof positive that crime is declining and there's no need for gun control. As the graph shows, gun crime has leveled off but is certainly not in decline and is in fact increasing in more recent years.

[NickB79]

31. You're using absolute numbers to surmize rates of change?

You forgot to calculate in the 100 million extra Americans our country added since 1973. Hence why agencies like the FBI track murders per 100,000 citizens, assaults per 100,000 citizens, etc.

[vkkv]

27. All of the guns in the wrong hands certainly doesn't help.NT