Trump gains on Clinton despite furor over women, election comments

[TomCADem]

Source: Reuters

(Reuters) - Donald Trump gained on Hillary Clinton among American voters this week, cutting her lead nearly in half despite a string of women accusing him of unwanted sexual advances and the furor over his disputed claims that the election process is rigged, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday.

The survey also showed that 63 percent of Americans, including a third of Republicans, believe the New York real estate mogul has committed sexual assault in the past, though the Republican presidential candidate has denied the recent accusations.

Clinton, the Democratic former secretary of state, led Trump 44 percent to 40 percent, according to the Oct. 14-20 poll, a 4-point lead, with the Nov. 8 election fast approaching. That compared with 44 percent for Clinton and 37 percent for Trump in the Oct. 7-13 poll released last week.

Clinton's lead also shrank in a separate four-way poll that included alternative party candidates: 43 percent supported her, while 39 percent supported Trump, 6 percent supported Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and 2 percent supported Jill Stein of the Green Party.


Read more: https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN12L2T0?client=safari

[Kingofalldems]

1. Keep on the lookout for any more Trump gains.

I know you'll keep us informed.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

8. You can always count on Tom ...

[obnoxiousdrunk]

9. you can always count on

Tom to keep us informrd.

[Kingofalldems]

17. ...of any Trump gains.

[getagrip_already]

56. greg dworkin addressed this today...

Over at kos. Net/Net - reuters contradicts themselves. Here is the chart to get the real answer:

:large

[adigal]

60. I'd love to know how denial benefits us...maybe we need to donate more $$

Or maybe this should motivate those of us who haven't done so, like me, to phone bank or GOTV

I hate when we act like the right wing deniers.

[saltpoint]

2. Hasn't there been other polling suggesting

that the reverse is true, that Trump is losing ground, that Clinton-Kaine is gaining, and that Trump's path to 270 electoral votes is very close to impossible?

[Dawson Leery]

4. Survey USA/NBC/Various Tracking polls have her leading by 10.

[pat_k]

7. Electoral map: Cook Political Report

http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard

[Oldem]

3. If Reuter's numbers are right,

they might well be a function of her lying low for the past few weeks, not a sign of his strength. Thirty-nine percent is pathetic. I'd be willing to bet that she charges hard toward the finish line.

[spooky3]

5. Misleading headline

MOE is 3 percentage points, so the margin change is just as likely to result from sampling error/statistical noise as it is real movement. And, her percentage is exactly the same as before, so any gain that IS real comes from "undecided" or Johnson/Stein/etc. professed voters.

Will be interesting to see polls taken after the third debate.

[tonyt53]

11. Thank you for pointing out this fact!

[emulatorloo]

6. Why don't you wait a couple days and get back to us.

Viewership of Wed's debate was the third highest in the history of Presidential debates.

[MADem]

13. Never mind that pounding, pounding, pounding noise that is emanating from the Trump campaign

after his piss poor performance at the Al Smith!


What is that pounding noise?

Why, it's the nails being hammered into the Trump campaign coffin. That shit is DEAD.

[rtracey]

10. ahhhh

538 still has Clinton at 83% chance, to Trumps 13.8% chance...... This is the only polling I follow, because most polls are on-line or landline polls, not very accurate, plus many are % among "Possible voters"..... Trump is basically going to go to his base and have rallies... I find it hard to believe ANYONE but a possible few are undecided 3 weeks away....

[BlueMTexpat]

44. You'll be happy to hear that

538 has Clinton's probability of winning even higher than the percentage you posted - at least on the interactive chart.

[TheCowsCameHome]

12. JimRob called, he said thanks for posting.

[BumRushDaShow]

18. Correction

JimRob RimJob

[pnwmom]

14. This makes no sense because the Reuters website says Clinton is 8.5% ahead,

among likely voters, as of October 20, in a 4 candidate field; and 9 points ahead against Trump alone.

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1

[NYC Democrat]

20. Okay let me explain this cause their actually the same poll.

the +4 was the AVERAGE for the week, which was mucked up by the 17th and 15th where Trump had really strong polling days, the +9 is where their tracker is TODAY.

[pnwmom]

24. But it also says, at the bottom, it is a 5-day rolling poll.

So wouldn't that include the last 5 days?

[NYC Democrat]

42. It does, the 15th to the 20th.

averaged out the results of the 5 days Trump got around 40% and Clinton averaged around 44%, the 15th and 17th were particularly good polling days for Trump, the 19th and 20th were good for Clinton. Really it's all mostly just noise.

[Lefthacker]

15. I don't inderstand

The latest Ipsos poll on 538 says a +9 for HRC?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

16. First thought....

"Fucking media just has to have a fucking horse race."

But that's me.

[mdbl]

33. me too

[blue-wave]

19. This Is Bullshit!

One article/poll out of what? Hundreds? Thousands? Showing the opposite is true!! I don't believe it, the poll needs to be analyzed and is likely highly flawed. Or this is some sort of crude joke. Maybe it's still part of Trump's Al Smith Dinner speech.

[red dog 1]

21. This does not surprise me at all

All this talk of a Clinton "landslide" is extremely premature, imo.

Right now, according to this & other polls taken since the last debate, show that Trump has, indeed, gained several points, and the race is now essentially a "toss-iup"

Trump's "rigged election" statements seem to be resonating with voters.

Let's hope and pray that something new comes out about Trump in the next few days.

I wish the mainstream media would begin to cover Trump's underage rape lawsuit, which now has a hearing set for December 16 in New York Federal Court.
The woman who alleges that Trump & his buddy Jeffrey Epstein raped her when she was 13 now has a "high-profile" attorney, Casey Anthony, and two new eyewitnesses have come forward as well to back up her claims.
Why are the "big time" news outlets like the New York Times, Washington Post,
Chicago Tribune, NBC News, CBS News, ABC News, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the rest all refusing to cover this potentially explosive rape case?
What the hell are they afraid of?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512502424

[yeoman6987]

31. I don't know why they aren't talking rape trial

But I am glad they stopped this landslide talk. It will make some think it's ok not to vote. I'd rather the media says it's close so that voters don't mind waiting hours to vote for Hillary if necessary.

[RBInMaine]

39. Oh please. Are you trolling? Or just mega-debbie downering? For god sake, stop the NONSENSE.

It is not a "tossup." That is just plain ridiculous. Please, ENOUGH!

[Old Vet]

50. You are correct red dog, Speaking about a Landslide is dangerous talk.

Theres more racist and arrogant people then most think, Again we need to treat this election as were behind to the end IMHO.

[Mc Mike]

22. I believe that they're SAYING it, but just don't believe them.

But it never hurts to have a heads up, on the big media people implausibly ratcheting the polling numbers into a more favorable position for the repugs.

That's how he got close last time. His gains bore zero relationship to the constant campaigning screw ups dRumpfenfuhrer has perpetrated, during the entire final election season. Caught in another scandal, poll numbers tightened. Fired the second campaign manager, poll numbers ratcheted closer. The media genius threw a suck-y convention that caused the first ever net negative favorability rating registered among those who viewed it. He came out -15% in favorability, then the polls said the race was tightening.

I used to get mad at TPM for their poll aggregates, but their site is always reporting every substantive thing they can to help the good side win.

[NYC Democrat]

23. Just gonna explain how this works and why Reuters is showing both +4 and +9.

the +4 was the AVERAGE for the week, which was mucked up by the 17th and 15th where Trump had really strong polling days, the +9 is where their tracker is TODAY after a few really good polling days for Clinton.


Their the same tracking poll, Reuters just takes a weekly average and that's their article.

[William769]

25. Trump has no path to 270. Period.

[alcibiades_mystery]

26. Jack Pine Radical...getting desperate

[PunksMom]

27. Ok, I'm done be with the DU for the night.

[George II]

28. I don't know about that poll. Clinton's support didn't budge (44 to 44) but Trump's support....

.....went up?

Seems dubious, especially considering that virtually every other poll shows her lead widening.

[stonecutter357]

29. I'm not concerned at all.

[LostinRed]

30. Trump has only one path to victory Clinton has 3

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-there-are-4-ways-this-election-can-end-and-3-involve-clinton-winning/

[vdogg]

32. Lots of right wing memes at that link.

Hmmm...

[liberalhistorian]

34. WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE?

I just simply do NOT get why and how he has anything higher than ten percent of support, it never, ever should have been higher than that. His debate performances alone should be enough for anyone with more than one brain cell. It just makes NO fucking sense to me at all.

[Egnever]

48. You underestimate the effect of 30 years of Clinton bashing

He is certainly a horror show but in the minds of many she is not much better if not worse.

[Stuart G]

49. Deep down a third of the country is racist, anti-women, anti-immigrant and

so on..even some women are anti - women....

A third in my opinion...but...let's say Hillary gets 52 percent of the vote, and Drump gets 37 percent,,,,that means Hillary will win by at least 15 million votes.....perhaps as much as 18million....
.Our side must get out to vote...every person who thinks fair and just...vote...

Now..that does mean that a lot of people are not fair and just..yep...one third..in my opinion..we will see in 2 and half weeks...let us hang in there...

[Tommy2Tone]

35. Is this poster a Trump fan?

Sounds like it. He put a Trump spin on every statistic.

[alcibiades_mystery]

37. It's very sad

to see Sanders supporters stoop to Trump support. One wonders how they can square it with their consciences.

[Foggyhill]

36. Bullshit, this is editorialising not supported by facts

[LakeArenal]

38. You might recall this stuff happened with Romney

"Oh the polls say Romney's gonna win." Fox was so sure the polls were right. And yes, I believe they want a horse race. But we have one whole filly in the race and just the back half of the other horse.

[blue-wave]

41. The part about the horse is so

funny but also sadly true.

[murielm99]

43. LOL!

[RBInMaine]

40. This is BULLSHIT editorializing of a headline because corporate media wants a horserace. Clinton is

WAY up. Today's tracker from the same company has her 9 points up. So please, enough of the BULLSHIT.

[Retired George]

45. This Poll: Outlier?

Or Outright Liar?

[cynzke]

46. Voter Turnout is Crucial.

Remember, Trump has no chance with his supporters alone to win. Hillary has set up an aggressive ground campaign. Voter turnout for Hillary is crucial. She has support of women, minorities, millennials are turning to her, white educated men and women. Everyone, every group of people Trump has maligned. As long as the campaign and volunteers push supporters to vote, Trump has no chance to win.

[dembotoz]

47. experience has shown the gop votes while we order a pizza and watch netflix

turn out is all....somewhat concerned about hrc campaign going after the very red states as of late---look, shiny object!

I live in a swing state that is supposedly firmly in the hrc column....trump has more on tv, trump is making visits.....

hrc? think chelsea had a layover in the state for an hour or so a couple weeks back....the gop has done very well here and i fear they could again

[whatthehey]

52. And data show Dem results in GEs are better than polls in recent times

So not sure who the "we" is who are staying home (midterms perhaps; this isn't one.) Take a loo and see the final 2012 poll aggregators' margins and the final results. Does Clinton inherit that software and organization or Trump?

[Thrill]

51. Here comes the media with their its close

Narrative. Knew it was coming. I expect Fox, ABC. CBS to come up with similar polls

[LenaBaby61]

53. Here comes the media with their its close.

Yep, with 2 weeks left.

[tavernier]

61. Enough.

Take it to your favorite right wing site...