Clinton leads in Florida, Trump narrowly leads in Texas - CBS Battleground Tracker

[highplainsdem]

Source: CBS News

Hillary Clinton holds a three-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, while in Texas – a state that has voted Republican by wide margins in recent years – Trump leads by a mere three points.

-snip-

Sixty percent of all voters think both candidates should pledge to accept the results of the election, but fewer than half of Florida’s Republicans (42 percent) and only 31 percent of Trump’s supporters say so. Seventy-two percent of Trump voters and 60 percent of Republicans say Trump is “acting within his rights as a candidate” by calling the election into question, while 39 percent of voters overall feel Trump is “undermining a U.S. tradition” by doing so.

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The other key difference is that Clinton benefits from the strong support of her party, stronger than what Trump is getting from his party. Trump has the backing of 82 percent of Republicans, but that seemingly-high number isn’t enough to match Clinton’s 91 percent support with Democrats. That’s a disparity that has weighed on Trump throughout this race in Florida and other states. It is also part of the closer gap in Texas.

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In 2012 Republicans won a double-digit victory in Texas, as they often do; it’s one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. Today Texas is close, and is more a story of Trump underperforming rather than Clinton over-performing typical Democrats, and why despite the tightness it may still be difficult for the Democrats to actually get those last points and win the state outright. Clinton is doing about as well with key groups as President Obama did in 2008, but Trump is under-performing the Republican benchmarks by roughly ten points among white men, white women, and college whites in particular. Many of those not with Trump are unsure or voting third-party rather than Clinton.

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Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-tracker-hillary-clinton-leads-florida-donald-trump-narrowly-leads-texas/

[DFW]

1. CBS ought to clarify something

Last edited Sun Oct 23, 2016, 11:49 AM - Edit history (1)

Hillary has a 3 point lead over Trump in Florida, and Trump has "a mere 3 point lead" over her in Texas?

Which 3 point lead is greater than the other? Is "a mere 3 point lead" smaller than "a 3 point lead?" By how much?

I realize we expect to take Florida and thought Texas was an outside chance, but a 3 point lead is a 3 point lead, and if it is a "mere" 3 point lead for them, then it is "a mere" 3 point lead when it's in our favor. This is not the time to get smug.

If their "mere" 3 point lead is something to fight to close in Texas, then our "non-mere" 3 point lead in Florida is just as precarious and needs to built upon, and not savored as if the state were already safely in our hands.

[LisaL]

2. My feelings exactly.

3 points is narrow lead. I guess their point is that a republican would be expected to have more than a 3 point lead in TX, but that headline is not the best.

[awoke_in_2003]

12. That's how I take it...

Texas usually isn't a battleground state.

[Foggyhill]

4. There are many polls confirming a small but constant lead in Florida

All numbers don't mean the same thing. It depends on context.

Considering GOTV, I think most are expecting Florida to go for Clinton.

Since its the first poll that shows 3% lead in Texas (and depending how many are polled, it may or may not be significant),
it may or may not mean something. Other polls, more substantial polls could confirm or deny those numbers.

If the Latino pop turn up in droves, getting Texas is a definite possibility.

[DFW]

7. We need a LOT of them to show up

I hope the Castro brothers are down in San Antonio and working their district (and beyond) like their futures depend on it. If they can show they helped deliver Texas for Hillary, their political futures will look very bright indeed.

[dsc]

5. I think they are comparing to expectations

winning Florida by 3 is pretty big compared to the margins we usually see, conversely a 3 point GOP lead in Texas is very small.

[emulatorloo]

10. Well said. Fl is a swing state. Tx is not usually a swing state, usually blood Red.

[emulatorloo]

9. Because, in Texas, one expects the R to be 10 points or more ahead of the D

I believe that is the logic of the writer.

Florida is a swing state and is always a toss up. Texas is a Red state, is not usually a toss up.

[herding cats]

11. It's the shock of seeing Texas turning purple so many years before it was expected, I think.

Coupled with the fact so many Democrats, and Republicans, have held Texas up as an example of stalwart Republican control. If Texas doesn't go at least double digit for the Republican candidate you can be sure Republicans will be sweating the results. Even if they decry it as the "Trump effect" they still know they're losing control bit by bit there. Not to mention a close race helps energize Democratic voters to believe their vote counts now. They may just start voting more often if they think they can actually influence elections. Which is the last thing the GOP wants to see happen in Texas.

Beyond that, you're correct. 3pts is 3pts, and one lead means no more than the other mathematically.

For my part I say, Texas Dems get out there and make history!!

[DallasNE]

3. 2000 Republicans To Al Gore: "Get Out Of Cheney's House"

Republicans crave power whether by hook or crook - whatever it takes. Democracy is simply too messy for their tastes. Then they get nasty when things don't go their way.

[DFW]

8. Republicans to us after 2000: "Just get over it."

Republicans to us after 2016: "We know the result as well as you do, but we don't and won't accept it."

It might not be out of place here to suggest here that the Republicans are adhering to a double standard.

[riversedge]

13. REC.