Poll: Trump leads Clinton by 3 points in Virginia post email investigation

[uawchild]

Source: WTVR - CBS affiliate

HAMPTON, Va. – If the 2016 Presidential Election were held today, Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton by three points, according to a new poll by Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP).

With less than a week before Election Day, the poll shows Trump with a three point lead (44-41 percent) over Clinton, among likely Virginia voters.

While the poll gives Trump a slight edge, 15 percent of likely voters remain undecided.

The poll was conducted October 26- 30. During the time of the poll, the news story about the FBI reopening the investigation into email servers used by Clinton was released on Friday, October 28.

The CPP poll believes the news did have an impact on the data collected during this time.

Read more: http://wtvr.com/2016/11/02/poll-trump-leads-clinton-by-3-points-in-virginia-post-email-investigation/

---

Good Lord.

[vadermike]

1. I wonder

What the campaign internals show They aren't really canpaignin there looks like We'll we might have an early night just not in our favor God help us

[wisteria]

44. Oh my, the sky is falling, the sky is falling.

[underpants]

2. 15% undecided? I haven't seen an HU poll yet this election

Christopher Mewport U has emerged as the predominant in-state pollster.

Virginia does typically decide late but that's a high percentage.

[mrsv]

3. Don't believe it

[GWC58]

5. I just heard she's up by 5.

People, do yourself a favor and stop with the polls. You'll feel much better in the end. It's gotten to the point I pay them no mind.

[misterhighwasted]

27. She is. +5.8. Check the Blue Counties that are going for Hillary

http://benchmark.shareblue.com/virginia/

[wordpix]

56. I don't - NoVa is very liberal

I know that's not all of VA but NoVa is constantly growing along with Charlottsv. The people moving there tend to be educated and young---not Trump voters

[StevieM]

4. This is terrifying. Comey and Chaffetz have successfully deceived people into believing that

the fake email scandal has been revived. Many people believe that she is once again under FBI investigation.

[bucolic_frolic]

8. And the House Chairman today threatened impeachment

they're trying to scare everyone away from voting for her

[George II]

7. Who did they poll? Ivanka, Melania, Eric, Barron, and Donald Jr.?

[vadermike]

9. If these

Are to be believed it will be an early nite trump wins VA NH FL OH IA etc and we will be fucked Pray for our country I'm sick

[book_worm]

12. Yes, I'm sure you'll be heartsick.

[JI7]

21. lol

[obamanut2012]

37. lulz

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

39. Oh STFU with the shtick already. nt

[Demsrule86]

47. hahah...you are amusing...I will give you that...Trump

will not win...hahah. But keep on...even after it does not good.

[vadermike]

10. Altho

If the house chairmen threatened impeachment that shod fire up our voters I hope

[Squinch]

30. You spell like a republican.

[Old and In the Way]

35. That is American, not English.

If it sounds right, it is Right!

[obamanut2012]

54. Good grief, use punctuation occasionally

It'll make reading your comedy material easier.

[wordpix]

57. Dear troll, forget posting, we're a lot smarter here

[book_worm]

11. And yet Washington Post poll from Oct 27-30 (same time span)

gives HRC a six point lead. Remington a GOP pollster polled 1106 lv on Oct 30 and gives HRC a 4-point lead. Emerson, also with a GOP bias, also polled from 10/28-10/30 and gives HRC a 4-point lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_clinton-5542.html

[vadermike]

16. Youn

Make a great point about time span how good is cpp ?

[Old and In the Way]

32. Can you translate into English? Nt

[wordpix]

58. lololol lmao

[Coyotl]

13. Outlier Pollsters Cheated Themselves In Virginia

Outlier Pollsters Cheated Themselves In Virginia’s Senate Race

Since Election Day, one of the most frequently asked questions I’ve gotten was how pollsters (and FiveThirtyEight) missed the razor-thin re-election of Democratic Sen. Mark Warner in Virginia. Most polling showed Warner with a comfortable lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the high single- or low double-digits.

Polls sometimes miss — sometimes by a lot. But something else may have also been going on in Virginia. We’ve since learned that at least a couple of surveys in the state were conducted but not released. Gravis Marketing and Hampton University took polls in the final weeks of the campaign and decided not to publish the results.

I wasn’t all that surprised to hear the pollsters kept certain results to themselves. Unfortunately, the practice of spiking polls — an extreme form of pollster herding — seems to be occurring more and more frequently. It happened at least twice before during the 2014 election cycle, and that’s just what we know about. ............

[BumRushDaShow]

23. "Gravis Marketing"

I think it was DUers grantcart that uncovered the fraud of Gravis in the 2012 election in a series of posts.

[femmocrat]

14. 538 has Clinton at an 83% chance of winning VA.

49.5% Clinton
44.5% the other guy

[regnaD kciN]

15. According to ONE poll…

And one which seems to always be an outlier in one direction or another.

[videohead5]

17. Washington Post Poll

Taken in the same time period shows Hillary with a 6 point lead in Virginia.it's rated as a A+ poll.Hillary 48% Trump 42%

[Dawson Leery]

29. +1

[AmericanMan1958]

19. Real Clear Politics

Virginia: RCP Average 10/23 - 10/30 Clinton +4.7

[Jim__]

22. 538 gives Hillary an 82.6% chance of winning Virginia. That includes Hampton U poll.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/virginia/

[busterbrown]

25. Same thing here...Just read 538 Virginia’s Poll..

His 2012 predictions were correct in every every state.

[INdemo]

24. I dont believe this and it doesnt give the number of Samplings

If this poll was taken in the Hampton, Va. Beach area ins't that a heavily Republican populated area?

Can one really count all the voter intentions from the Naval Personnel since many of them will be voting absentee in their home state?

....WTVR is the home to many conservative Talk show hosts..So another reason to question this poll right?

[misterhighwasted]

31. Richmond wins it for Hillary. They must have skipped over Richmond in this poll.

[Cryptoad]

33. Nah,,,, they just made it up as they typed

they knew some ahole was standing by to spread the Joy.......

[DonCoquixote]

26. also, let's see what happens after Tim Kaine hits this

Tim kaine is popular there.

[Hestia]

28. Bull.Fucking.Shit

When you stand in line at the polls (like we did on Monday), you will see sane, rational people and mostly women. From discussions, it looks like HRC might actually pull a surprise here, or at least single digit percentage behind Drumpf. Most of yard signs here are for Johnson instead of Drumpf. That's fine - every vote for 3rd party helps HRC for a change.

[uponit7771]

48. +1

[Kingofalldems]

36. So transparent.

[obamanut2012]

38. yup

[Kingofalldems]

41. It's an everyday thing now.

[SunSeeker]

43. Yup. nt

[Kingofalldems]

42. Post and run.

[Demsrule86]

46. My son is in the UAW...one or two supported a different candidate hmm.

[Demsrule86]

45. Stop posting bad polls

OCT. 27-30 The Washington Post
A+
3.88
48%
42%
6%
Clinton +6
Clinton +5
OCT. 30 Remington
2.28
47%
43%
3%
Clinton +4
Clinton +5
OCT. 28-30 Emerson College
B
2.23
49%
45%
3%
Clinton +4
Clinton +5
OCT. 26-30 Hampton University
B
2.16
41%
44%
Trump +3
Trump +2
OCT. 23-30 Winthrop University
2.16
44%
39%
5%
Clinton +5
Clinton +3
OCT. 20-26 Quinnipiac University
A-
2.12
50%
38%
4%
Clinton +12
Clinton +11
OCT. 26-NOV. 1 SurveyMonkey
C-
2.05
49%
39%
7%
Clinton +10
Clinton +9
OCT. 23-26 Christopher Newport University
B-
1.89
46%
39%
5%
Clinton +7
Clinton +4
OCT. 17-18 The Times-Picayune/Lucid
1.27
43%
38%
9%
Clinton +5
Tie
OCT. 12-15 Tarrance Group
B
0.97
47%
38%
3%
Clinton +9
Clinton +7

[DeminPennswoods]

50. Sample was 47% self-id Rs

I always like to look over the internals from polls. This sample, while 33D-28R-28I by registration was actually 35D-47R-10I by self-identification. Are there 12% more Rs than Ds in VA?

I looked at Tim Kaine's favorables it was 53% very fav+fav vs 41% very unfav+unfav. In the prev poll it was 55-36. Kaine's trustworthy was 60%. In the current poll, it's 56%.

The previous poll showing Clinton up by 12 pts might have been too Democratic-friendly.

Taking both together, she's probably up by around 5 pts.

[tavernier]

51. Oh no! In that case maybe I should just stay home!

Aww, too late. My vote's in the bank. But nice try.

[RedCloud]

52. Conservative "news" outlets cherry pick which polls they use.

nm

[Demsrule86]

55. Oh look you posted an outlier...but of course didn't cherrypick it...

538
GRADE
Clinton

Trump

Johnson
LEADER ADJUSTED LEADER
• Oct. 27-30 The Washington Post
A+

3.88

48%

42%

6%
Clinton +6
Clinton +4
• Oct. 30 Remington
2.28

47%

43%

3%
Clinton +4
Clinton +5
• Oct. 28-30 Emerson College
B

2.23

49%

45%

3%
Clinton +4
Clinton +5
• Oct. 26-30 Hampton University
B

2.16

41%

44%
Trump +3
Trump +2
• Oct. 23-30 Winthrop University
2.16

44%

39%

5%
Clinton +5
Clinton +3
• Oct. 27-Nov. 2 SurveyMonkey
C-

2.13

48%

40%

7%
Clinton +8
Clinton +7
Oct. 20-26 Quinnipiac University
A-

2.12

50%

38%

4%
Clinton +12
Clinton +11
Oct. 23-26 Christopher Newport University
B-

1.89

46%

39%

5%
Clinton +7
Clinton +4
Oct. 17-18 The Times-Picayune/Lucid
1.27

43%

38%

9%
Clinton +5
Tie
Oct. 12-15 Tarrance Group
B

0.97

47%

38%

3%
Clinton +9
Clinton +6