Cook Report Moves 20 House Seats In Dems Favor After OCare Repeal Vote

[DonViejo]

Source: Talking Points Memo



By CAITLIN MACNEAL Published MAY 5, 2017 9:21 AM

Cook Political Report on Friday morning changed its ratings for 20 House seats, predicting that Democrats’ odds of winning those districts has increased now that House Republicans passed a bill to repeal Obamacare.

“Although it’s the first of potentially many explosive votes, House Republicans’ willingness to spend political capital on a proposal that garnered the support of just 17 percent of the public in a March Quinnipiac poll is consistent with past scenarios that have generated a midterm wave,” Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman wrote in a post explaining the ratings changes. “Not only did dozens of Republicans in marginal districts just hitch their names to an unpopular piece of legislation, Democrats just received another valuable candidate recruitment tool.”

He wrote that for some Republicans, backing the American Health Care Act is an “unequivocal political risk.”

Cook Political Report moved three districts from leaning Republican to toss-ups, 11 districts from likely Republican to leaning Republican and six districts from solid Republican to leaning Republican.

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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/cook-political-house-ratings-obamacare-repeal

Read more: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/cook-political-house-ratings-obamacare-repeal

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[Gothmog]

1. The Cook Report is a great source

This is a major move

[world wide wally]

2. Republicans will celebrate this because they know that IF that happens,

they will still control the House by two votes and that is all they need.
I wish Democrats would figure out that all you need is 50% plus 1 and stop trying to appeal to 100% of the voters all the time.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. That report is apparently talking about the redder of the districts

where the representative voted for the bill. You can add on 20 more seats of GOP representatives in swing districts that voted against the bill but who generally vote straight party for most everything else as a lockstop. Those districts just need some extra turnout by Democrats to flip. In fact many of those were gerrymandered into existence and originally had Democrats as representatives before 2010.

In the case of this report (from the report's link) -

<...>

Of the 23 Republicans sitting in districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, 14 voted for the repeal and replace measure. For these Republicans, time is still on their side and healthcare reform can't be disposed of soon enough. There are still 18 months before the 2018 election, whereas House Democrats eked out final passage of the ACA less than eight months before the 2010 midterms. These Republicans can't afford a year-long Senate slog.

<...>

Still, for several dozen Republicans, adding support for the AHCA to their voting record is an unequivocal political risk. And, several of the 20 Republicans who voted against AHCA could end up being blamed anyway, much as 17 of the 30 Democrats who took a pass on the ACA and then ran for reelection ended up losing in 2010. For others, tough votes could make the prospect of retirement more appealing.

<..>

http://cookpolitical.com/story/10342

So in the above example, right there, you have 14 districts that went for Hillary but had their GOP reps vote for the repeal. Those are ripe for pickup with enough effort.

I believe Democrats basically need about 25 seats to take the House. Best case (dream case) scenario using this data if everything aligned would be a 34 seat pickup. In 2006, Democrats picked up 31 seats (but only needed 15 to tip enough for control).

[world wide wally]

5. Well, that is more encouraging.

Let's hope it works out that way.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. I am crossing fingers!!

[BumRushDaShow]

3. This will go back to the same thing we say election after election

1.) There needs to be a Democratic candidate who is supported by the state/national party, to challenge these folks. Far too many districts had GOPers running unopposed
2.) Continue to battle the voter suppression regimes - i.e., Voter ID, reduction of early voting in states that allow it, closures of polling locations that impact urban and/or minority voters
3.) GOTV

[mwooldri]

6. Republicans voting for the "Abolish Health Care Act" (AHCA) - and lose seats.

Who would have thought that health care repeal would be so complicated?

[TalenaGor]

8. Na -Na -Na -Nah....

[Tiggeroshii]

9. na -na -na -nahhh

hey hey heyyy

[TalenaGor]

11. goodbye....

Lol 😝

[Tiggeroshii]

12. ..

[beachbum bob]

10. I'm goinmg say 20 is the minimum for sure pickup with at lleast another 20-25 in play

every race that was a 8-10 point margin win for the conservative is now in play for a democratic pickup