US tests defense system after North Korea missile launch
Source: CNN
(CNN)The United States said it conducted a successful missile defense test in the Pacific Ocean on Sunday amid growing tensions with North Korea.
US Forces tested the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in Alaska by launching a ballistic missile over the Pacific Ocean, according to the US military.
The medium-range ballistic missile was detected, tracked and intercepted, it said.
The tests appears to be a show of force two days after North Korea conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test.
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Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/30/politics/us-military-tests-thaad-system/index.html
longship
(40,416 posts)We've known that for literally decades, even back to the 1960's when the first ABM systems were proposed.
When it costs more to shoot a missile down than it takes to build and launch the missile in the first place, Econ 101 tells you that the inevitable response to an ABM system is for the opponent to build more missiles. In other words, it accomplishes precisely the opposite of its utterly naive intentions.
Scientists have been saying this for as long as war hawks have been spewing this crazy justification for a technology which in principal cannot work to justify its stated goals.
Most of these tests have been cheats. They tell the interceptor where the missile is, because the test is not blinded. They know when the target is launched; they know where the target is going. So of course the test can be successful.
Regardless of the cheats, few of these tests are successful. It is really, really difficult to intercept an ICBM. Many think it may be near impossible. Certainly, its costs outweigh its benefits. This especially when the opponent can so inexpensively overwhelm your ABMs by merely building and launching more much cheaper missiles.
ECON 101 is your bitch.
EX500rider
(10,842 posts)If the benefit is shooting down a nuclear tipped missile headed to a US city I doubt the citizens of that city would agree with you.
Also the purpose of ABM's are to factor in uncertainty to a enemies calculations on whether a 1st strike can knock out US command and control.
Your costs analysis seems to be way off also:
The most modern ICBM the US built (not deployed) was the Peacekeeper missile with a unit cost of $70 million per missile.
The THAAD ABM missile has a unit costs of $11 million per missile.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGM-118_Peacekeeper
http://www.fi-aeroweb.com/Defense/THAAD.html
As to "cheating", no, early on in the testing cycle they are testing different components of the system and surprise launch from unknown location comes very late in the testing cycle, 1st they just make sure it flies, then they make sure it tracks, then they make sure it intercepts.
I doubt the Korean's are launching US missiles... so we don't know their costs.
And how many ABM's do we have/ need? Not just for Korea, but all of our enemies.
Seems like the economic argument has some merit in the long term...
EX500rider
(10,842 posts)Long term, saving one US city from being nuked at anytime in history will be worth it.
You don't need many, just enough to blunt a first strike from China or Russia so they don't have a 100% chance of taking out command and control nodes in a 1st strike. With uncertainty comes fear to launch.
If the Russian's think it's so destabilizing they can give up their nuclear tipped ABM system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-135_anti-ballistic_missile_system
Akoto
(4,266 posts)From my perspective, the cost and potential success of keeping one of our cities from being nuked is inconsequential. The death toll and future consequences to the country would be paramount. We have more money than God's treasury invested into the military and its tech. If there's even a possibility of it preventing a nuclear strike, use it!
longship
(40,416 posts)Even if there was a perfect ABM system -- BTW, far from it. Physics 101 -- if a country put an ABM system in place, an enemy could cheaply go around it by smuggling a nuke in a container ship, for instance. BOOM goes the Port of LA, for instance.
That is why physicists are almost universally against ABM systems. They cannot work very well. And they are destabilizing. They make a nuclear detonation by a hostile nation more likely.
Only a fool would support wide range deployment of such systems. Or at minimum one who does not understand the impracticality and destabilizing nature of them.
Akoto
(4,266 posts)This particular scenario refers to North Korea hitting us with a traditional ICBM type attack.
When you say the system is "destabilizing", I admittedly do not follow your meaning.
What occurs to my mind when I think about this particular scenario is, does an ABM system not working well translate to a 0% chance of intercepting it and saving countless lives, among preventing other consequences? If the chance is greater than 0%, then it's worth trying it in the specific scenario of intercepting a missile in the air. Dump all the money they need into saving the targeted area and take the chance.
Granted, I think the overall debate is pointless. I am of the belief that, if North Korea were ever to attack us (or anyone else) with a nuke, they would lose China's protection and the world would probably launch a devastating retaliation. They have to know that, too, so it's a matter of whether they're just dangling the sword over our heads or whether they're genuinely nuts enough to attack while knowing what will follow.
longship
(40,416 posts)The reason why Nixon signed the ABM treaty in the first place is because he was smart enough to understand how toxic a missile building contest would be in the face of ABMs. This especially at a time when nuclear weapons were already way out of control.
The ABM treaty led to the later START treaties, which resulted in thousands of nuclear weapons dismantled and destroyed under clear international oversight.
Anybody who knows that history, plus a little physics, should understand that ABMs are a really, really bad idea.
1. They do not work very well.
2. They invite the opponent to build more missiles to overwhelm such a system, in spite of #1.
For details visit:
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
Union of Concerned Scientists
Akoto
(4,266 posts)In this case, we're not referencing a face-off with Russia. A country broadly considered to be under the control of a questionably sane dictatorship is lobbing test missiles in Japan's direction and asserting that they can now hit us. We have a nation actively threatening us with a nuclear attack.
In the face of that, I don't think we can just hold the door open with one hand and not hold some sort of shield in the other. Even if the odds are bad, it's better than doing nothing to try and stop the catastrophe of losing one of our major cities along the Pacific. The death toll, the loss of the city, and the irradiation of the area would have consequences (economic and otherwise) reaching far beyond the cost of firing off the ABM system. In my mind, if that scenario were to crop up, we should try any tool we have which won't harm someone else.
I know that's narrow minded and not taking into account that our using and/or expanding an ABM system could lead to an arms race with other major powers. It's contrary to decreasing the number of missiles in stock. However, North Korea's government has no such concerns or moral conflict. They seem to be deliberately working on a weapon intended to reach the United States and/or possibly Japan.
I still stand by the belief that, if they were to nuke anyone, at least part of North Korea (probably the part housing Dear Leader's family and cabinet) would be turned to glass in retaliation, and it wouldn't just be us attacking. The entire world knows they've gone nuts, and they will have finally leapt intolerably over the edge if they genuinely try to nuke someone. What hangs in the balance is whether they're still crazy enough to do it, or whether they're just enjoying having enough oomph in their arsenal to now alarm major powers.
I'm not a war hawk and I certainly don't want to sound like one. I'm just looking at the opponent we're dealing with, and questioning whether or not it's unwise to prepare countermeasures in the event that they actually try to use the weapon they're developing. I don't trust that they aren't nuts enough to try.
longship
(40,416 posts)It's that if the DPRK launches one, their country could very well be quickly turned into glass.
The USA is still the only country on the planet which has used nuclear weapons against another country. If you are Kim Il Sun, what would you do? With Drumpf in the White House saying, "Go ahead Kim, make my day!"
If I were Kim, I'd keep my finger off that trigger. I think he knows that.
No number of ABMs are going to change that calculation. They'll just make sure that Kim launches more of them. That doesn't help anybody.
Akoto
(4,266 posts)I can't really debate this from your perspective, given we have different views on some of the base issues, but at least it was a civilized debate. I can always appreciate those.
At least we both seem to be in agreement that NK nuking someone would likely see a terrible retaliation, and that may well hold back Dear Leader's trigger finger.
longship
(40,416 posts)My position is based on the science. That's my domain, or at least it was in my productive past. The scientists have almost universally been against ABM systems since day one. That is why Richard Nixon signed the ABM treaty which led directly to the START treaties.
That was a win/win for the world, the elimination of thousands of nuclear weapons in the world, all under international observation.
Restarting the ABM advocacy is a very grim thing indeed, for the reasons I, and others at the links I've provided, have already stated.
Scientists are nearly universally against it, which is sufficient for me, especially since I can still do some of the calculations. (I may be old now, but I am not yet dead. )
Best regards.
DK504
(3,847 posts)Kim Jung Crazy lets loose warheads that can demolish Japan. They have no understanding of Southwest Asia. They are an amateur hour on steroids.
There are hot spots all over the world and the diminished State Dept. has no intention of talking to nations to calm things down across the world. A oil executive former generals that haven't won a war since the 40's and a wanna be despot are in charge and they have decided they want a shooting war.
I'd like to see how the RWNJ's that voted for this drunk monkey in a china shop when we get into a shooting war with N. Korea.
heaven05
(18,124 posts)FairWinds
(1,717 posts)There is a very long history of US cheating on ABM tests . .]
". . medium-range ballistic missile was detected, tracked and intercepted . ."
Sure, that is what they claim, but in the past they have used beacons on the missiles
to help with "detection" and "tracking". And they have engaged in phony intercepts too.
Don't trust them.
Veterans For Peace
EX500rider
(10,842 posts)...from reputable sources please.
And as I have said to you before, early on in the testing when you are testing maneuvering, not tracking, a homing beacon on the target is expected.
What is a "phony intercept" exactly?
EX500rider
(10,842 posts)Russia and Israel and the US all have working systems.
longship
(40,416 posts)1. One has to deploy the ABM where it can intercept the incoming missile in time.
2. One has to allow multiple interceptors per incoming target. No matter what you think, ABM tests have been jiggered by the USA, mainly to test specific subsystems. It is how science is normally done. You factor out the unknowns to test the specific subsystem in question. So you put a homing signal on the target to test the velocity, the homing ability, and the warhead in the interceptor. You presume that the radar system has a good lock on the target to test the rest of the system. In such tests during the Bush II admin, test results were spotty at best. So even presuming perfect targeting data, results are not insured. Best to launch multiple interceptors to make sure. There goes your economics.
3. The scientific community has universally been against ABM systems for decades.
Some links:
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
Union of Concerned Scientists
The Emperor's New Missile Defense (Scientific American)
Of course, one could undoubtedly cite Edward Teller in favor of ABMs. I would not recommend that though.
EX500rider
(10,842 posts)The economics of stopping nuclear detonations over US cities?
What price tag to you put on saving up to a million US lives exactly?
longship
(40,416 posts)ABMs are destabilizing. They invite an opponent to launch more weapons and/or decoys. They make it more likely that we will be hit by a nuke. We've known that for freaking decades. That is why the scientific community have been nearly universally against their deployment during that entire time.
You and I are just going to have to agree to respectfully disagree on this topic as I have no choice but to stand with the scientists here.
My best regards to you.
EX500rider
(10,842 posts)But I'd say the opposite.
In a world of pinpoint accuracy in ICBM's, a working ABM system makes a successful 1st strike to knock out command and control a lot harder to be assured of success.
The uncertainty of what warheads might get intercepted makes it less likely to happen, not more.
longship
(40,416 posts)One that cannot be overwhelmed by multiple targets/decoys. That is the scientific consensus of the people working on the periphery (and directly) of these systems.
I highly doubt that DPRK's missiles have pinpoint accuracy. Just as I doubt an ABM system's ability to defend against any determined attack. The science agrees with me on this. That's why there is universal opposition to this stuff in the scientific community and why the USA has signed treaties forbidding them.
It's also why I must stand my ground against them.
WhiskeyGrinder
(22,333 posts)longship
(40,416 posts)A short synopsis: They are destabilizing. They don't work very well.
Read the report here: Missile Defense
Star Wars is:
A) A fictional late 70's space opera movie.
B) A wet dream of an ignorant, pre-Alzheimers US President with no basis in fact.
Take your pick. Both are correct.
tammywammy
(26,582 posts)Two very different systems.
longship
(40,416 posts)It invites your opponent to attempt to overwhelm the system by either launching more weapons or decoys.
It is just not practical for any ABM system to be able to consistently intercept an incoming missile when it is in the midst of multiple targets.
The testing of ABMs has historically been fraught with failures and by jigged tests, like where the interceptor knows where its target is. Admittedly this is necessary to control variables, but in practice not realistic.
There is a reason why Nixon signed a treaty outlawing them.
And scientists are nearly universally against their deployment.
I have to stand with the science here. Say no to ABMs.
Cadfael
(1,296 posts)As the "duck & cover" drills the nuns had us do in grade school.... I'm having very unpleasant flashbacks.
EX500rider
(10,842 posts)At ground zero, no, but the farther from the target the more helpful it was to avoid blast damage from imploding glass and falling items.
FairWinds
(1,717 posts)Anyone who insists there has been no cheating is . . .
very uninformed on the subject, and
passing on a false GOP talking point.
Vets For Peace
EX500rider
(10,842 posts)In the recent tests...
"chirp" says the cricket
Cadfael
(1,296 posts)Not so much cheating as carefully scripted
--------
"These tests are scripted for success, says Philip Coyle, senior fellow at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and former head of the Pentagons test and evaluation office. Whats been surprising to me as that they have failed as often as they have in spite of that.
The US Missile Defense Agency conducts the tests, and scripts the conditions carefully. The defenders had significant information about the target ahead of time, says Grego. They know what it looks like, they know when its comingfactors the Pentagon almost certainly won't know if North Korea or anyone else lets one fly.
The tests also dont account for decoys and countermeasures that could throw off the missile defense systemtactics that include technology that confuses the launch-detecting radar systems or infrared sensors aboard the interceptor, or a simple balloon traveling alongside the incoming missiles reentry vehicle.
---------- from:
https://www.wired.com/2017/05/interceptor-missile-defense-test/
EX500rider
(10,842 posts)longship
(40,416 posts)That's how ABMs are tested.
EX500rider
(10,842 posts)longship
(40,416 posts)It was all reported during Bush II.
You want sources, find them. Or just click on through to the Scientific American article I linked above.
It's there.
And there's Google, too.
In other words, I am not going to do your research for you. At least not on a crappy iPhone connection, which is all that's available here.
FairWinds
(1,717 posts)and many others.
In fact, you should be asking the opposite - which
reputable scientists back the ABM farce?
Here is a clue - the backers get paid for it.
It is a shame to see such full-throated backing
of the MIC on DU -
As a Vietnam vet I can tell you with assurance that
EVERYTHING the military says should be treated with
the utmost skepticism.