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jpak

(41,757 posts)
Mon Sep 4, 2017, 12:47 PM Sep 2017

Hurricane warnings posted for eastern Caribbean; South Florida preparing

Source: Sun Sentinel

South Florida continues to monitor powerful Hurricane Irma, soon to become a Category 4, as warnings were posted Monday morning for the eastern Caribbean islands.

Whether the storm will impact South Florida remains unknown, but several forecast models are predicting a northern turn late in the week.

"There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this weekend," forecasater Dan Brown of the National Hurricane Center said in an 11 a.m. advisory. Still, it is too early to determine what direct impacts the storm might have on the region, it added.

Hurricane warnings are now in effect for a long list of islands, including the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, St. Martin and Nevis.

<more>

Read more: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-reg-hurricane-irma-sunday-20170903-story.html



Bottled water flying out the door in S. FL - don't wait to stock up

on edit

Latest spaghetti models...



15 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Hurricane warnings posted for eastern Caribbean; South Florida preparing (Original Post) jpak Sep 2017 OP
Florida is now in the bulleye jimlup Sep 2017 #1
Don't be relieved because we are still outside the good range for the models BumRushDaShow Sep 2017 #4
Yes indeed jimlup Sep 2017 #12
Great because I know a couple of the ensemble runs BumRushDaShow Sep 2017 #14
Even if Florida is in the bullseye, the Carolinas might not be safe csziggy Sep 2017 #15
If those tracks hold people in Georgia and SC better be prepared for flooding jpak Sep 2017 #2
The models have been all over the map BumRushDaShow Sep 2017 #3
... jpak Sep 2017 #7
Have been on a weather forum for 10 years BumRushDaShow Sep 2017 #13
Dang! Phoenix61 Sep 2017 #5
Hopefully... Dopers_Greed Sep 2017 #6
And give King Con a chance to rip the insurance off for millions? sandensea Sep 2017 #8
Oh shit from Tampa DonCoquixote Sep 2017 #9
At least my daughter won't worry, Cold War Spook Sep 2017 #10
Still too early to trust any models path, all bets are off if it gets into the Gulf Baclava Sep 2017 #11

jimlup

(7,968 posts)
1. Florida is now in the bulleye
Mon Sep 4, 2017, 01:14 PM
Sep 2017

I have to say I am relived as my 85 year old dad lives near the coast in N. Carolina. Looks like he should be OK and won't need to evacuate.

BumRushDaShow

(128,917 posts)
4. Don't be relieved because we are still outside the good range for the models
Mon Sep 4, 2017, 01:18 PM
Sep 2017

Continue to watch it. You can't go by one model run as the solution.

BumRushDaShow

(128,917 posts)
14. Great because I know a couple of the ensemble runs
Mon Sep 4, 2017, 02:38 PM
Sep 2017

had tracks of it rolling right through my area (up through the Chesapeake and/or Delaware Bays) so it is definitely nerve-wracking.

csziggy

(34,136 posts)
15. Even if Florida is in the bullseye, the Carolinas might not be safe
Mon Sep 4, 2017, 03:24 PM
Sep 2017

Hurricanes can take very erratic paths. The first hurricane I remember living through was Hurricane Donna in 1960. Her path was very contorted:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna

Donna went in at Marathon, traveled along the west coast of Florida, turned inland north of Fort Myers, passed over Bartow where I lived, exited at Daytona Beach, made landfall at Wilmington NC, exited in Virgina, then hit land yet again in Westhampton, NY, crossed Long Island and finally went across New England.

I was eight years old at the time. My three sisters and I were home alone with my Dad - Mom was in Alabama with her mother who was dying. As the first eye wall passed our house began leaking and my Dad was worried that some of the windows might blow in. He went out to the detached garage to get boards just in case. I remember him telling my oldest sister, "If I don't come back, DO NOT come after me! Stay inside, crawl into the bathtub or a closet and keep your sisters safe." Fortunately Dad came back in safe and we didn't lose any windows, but that house leaked like a sieve. We didn't have power for weeks so we didn't hear about the extensive damage until much later.

jpak

(41,757 posts)
2. If those tracks hold people in Georgia and SC better be prepared for flooding
Mon Sep 4, 2017, 01:15 PM
Sep 2017

Agnes in 1972 brought insane flooding to the southern Appalachians.

http://www.richmond.com/weather/photos-flooding-from-hurricane-agnes/collection_4642391c-c36d-54a8-ba35-52d390487c2a.html#9

Once it approaches the N. Georgia mountains it could get torrential.

BumRushDaShow

(128,917 posts)
3. The models have been all over the map
Mon Sep 4, 2017, 01:17 PM
Sep 2017

Still a good idea to keep an eye out. In the next couple days they will be in better range. About the only thing that has been consistent with the most recent model runs the past couple days is that it doesn't look like it will recurve and go out to sea (but even that could change).

BumRushDaShow

(128,917 posts)
13. Have been on a weather forum for 10 years
Mon Sep 4, 2017, 02:36 PM
Sep 2017

(my 47-year long and counting hobby...lol) and am following the play by plays by mets and forecasters. The 12Z Euro model is running right now and is so far is similar to the 12Z GFS model - with Irma running it into South Florida.

However later today and tonight when the 18Z & 0Z models run, that could all change.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
11. Still too early to trust any models path, all bets are off if it gets into the Gulf
Mon Sep 4, 2017, 02:22 PM
Sep 2017

You can't trust this one

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