Poll: Dem leads by 14 in Virginia governors race

[highplainsdem]

Source: The Hill

Democrat Ralph Northam leads Republican Ed Gillespie by 14 points in the race to be the next Virginia governor, according to a Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday.

The poll found Northam, the current Lt. Gov. of Virginia, taking 53 percent over Gillespie, the former Republican National Committee chairman, at 39 percent. In the previous Quinnipiac University survey, released in September, Northam led by 10 points, 51 to 41 percent.

The survey appears to be an outlier. Three polls released in October have found Northam ahead by between 4 points and 6 points, while a fourth poll, conducted by Monmouth University, found Gillespie ahead by 1.

Northam led Gillespie by 3.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average before the Quinnipiac survey was released.

-snip-

Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/356032-poll-dem-leads-by-14-in-virginia-governors-race

[MontanaMama]

1. Don't believe any of it.

Unless we vote on paper...everything is suspect. The cheaters aren't out of our elections...

[sandensea]

2. Right you are. Hillary said it best:

We have to run like we're 10 points behind - because their goal is to get where they can steal 10 point from all elections.

[rogue emissary]

5. I believe most if not all of Virginia uses paper ballots for this next election.

[FakeNoose]

18. I hope you're right

They can't hack paper ballots. Well they can, but it's much easier to prove it when you have a paper trail.

[questionseverything]

21. optical scanners can be incorrect just like the dres

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10029722275

[madokie]

23. I truly believe that optical scanners is why

we here in OK are led by a bunch of crooked 'CONs

[femmocrat]

3. I saw a poll this morning that had them tied!

[bpj62]

4. Optical Scanner

We do vote on paper in Fairfax and the entire stasyecwill be on paper in 2018. The scanner reads the ballot and the paper ballot matches it up. Democrats in VA are energized because we know That this election will stop the gerrymandering that has ruined our state Legislature. This will not be your standard off year election. Same for 2018.

[ffr]

6. Dems can make a statement about 2018 by walloping Gilespie

GOTV!

Send the message to the GOP. Your illegal ways will have consequences in 2018 and beyond!

[ileus]

12. It's not making a statement in Virginia.

It's a lot like a Dem winning in California these days in statewide Virginia races. There's pockets of resistance but they're easily out voted when it comes to statewide contests.

[onenote]

7. I'm very skeptical about these numbers

While Democrats have won three of the last four Virginia governor's races, their largest margin of victory in those races was less than 7 points and McAuliffe's margin of victory in the most recent (2013) contest was less than 3 points (and McAuliffe got less than 48% of the vote). Plus, in Gillespie's 2014 senate contest against Mark Warner, Gillespie got 48.3 percent of the vote despite the presence of a Libertarian on the ballot (Warner won with 49.1 percent). The last Virginia governor's race in which the Democrat received 53 percent or more of the vote was in 1985.

This race is likely to be a lot like the Warner/Gillespie contest -- a nail biter.

[Sunlei]

8. don't trust headlines about polls where Ds are 'leading'. These headlines make Rs turn-out in droves

[mahatmakanejeeves]

9. Also see this thread for a discussion of other polls:

October 18, 2017 - Democrat Holds 14-Point Likely Voter Lead In Virginia, Quinnipiac University Poll

[Yavin4]

10. Do not get lulled into a false sense of victory

Vote and shame your friends and relatives into voting,

[ileus]

11. We'll win this race by 20.

Said it yesterday...today...and will every time it's mentioned.


We don't even need a good turnout to thump Lyin' Ed.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

14. Aaaaaaaaaaarrrrggggghhhhh.

GOTV

GOTV

GOTV

Lather, rinse, repeat.

[Tarheel_Dem]

19. That's very dangerous thinking. I'm gonna bookmark this thread for future reference. nt

[IronLionZion]

13. Let's not get complacent. It's not over til it's over

Since it's not a presidential year, turnout will be lower. We still need our people to be energized to turn out in a big way.

[Zambero]

15. Reverse Trump coattails

Trump = GOP. GOP = Trump. Joined at the hip, and down with ship!

[BlueIdaho]

16. We dont need to just beat Ed Gilllespie

We need to humiliate the Republican Party.

[RhodeIslandOne]

17. GOTV

Vlad and Ivan and Lana are in the voting machines.

[renegade000]

20. Outlier, but I also think the Monmouth poll that had Gillespie up +1 is as well.

Most of the other polls have been consistently mid-single-digit leads for Northam.

[nitpicker]

22. The latest average from RCP

Northam: 49.3
Gillespie: 43.5

BUT in my opinion, it undercounts (just as in past years) what I call the "stealth Gillespie voters" that never respond to pollsters, but come to the polls (or vote absentee).

So add 5 percent to the Gillespie count:

Northam: 49.3
Gillespie: 48.5
with a few votes for Clifford D. Hyra (L) and write-ins.


My prediction: There may be a recount.