Possible war with Iran could be month-long affair: Israel minister

[UnrepentantLiberal]

Source: Reuters

August 15, 2012

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - War with Iran would probably turn into a month-long conflict on various fronts with missile strikes on Israeli cities and some 500 dead, Israel's civil defence minister said in an interview published on Wednesday.

"There is no room for hysteria. Israel's home front is prepared as never before," Matan Vilnai, a former general who is about to leave his cabinet post to become ambassador to China, told the Maariv daily.

The interview coincided with Israeli media reports over the past week suggesting that Israel might attack Iran's nuclear facilities before the U.S. presidential election in November.

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said on Tuesday that Washington does not believe Israel has made a decision on whether to strike.

Read more: http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFBRE87E0AO20120815

[ChairmanAgnostic]

1. Are wolfwitz, Cheney and Rumsfeld advising them?

This sounds like deja vu all over again.

[KurtNYC]

21. 2003: Rumsfeld foresees swift Iraq war

""It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months," he said, speaking at the American air base at Aviano, in northern Italy. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2738089.stm

9 years and counting.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

36. stunning overconfidence.

The Iranians have been patiently sitting on their thumbs, doing no planning, no research, no upgrading, and no hardening of their sites. RIIIIGHT.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

54. Any attack by Israel might not look all that wonderful to the Iranian people.

Once they get casualty reports that may harm any good will that the Iranian people have for the west.

All those who are against the present leadership and theocracy may either find they are in an awkward place or support their country against Israel.

That is just as valid an assessment as saying that they war would only last a month, and it may ring more true in time.

[Roy Rolling]

43. Thinking the same thing....

"we will be greeted by...people as Liberators"

[DCKit]

2. 500 dead? Dude left off (at least) a couple of zeroes. nt

[UnrepentantLiberal]

3. I think it might last longer than a month.

But I'm no military strategist, so what do I know?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

34. Only 500 dead?

Well, then, by all means, let's get our war on!

[coldbeer]

51. 500 dead israeli's

and that's way too many. Israel will not stand for it!

War is unnecessary.

[MADem]

59. Israel isn't talking about a ground war or invasion.

They're talking about trading missiles with the Persians, with a goal of taking out any potentially damaging sites--like, say, nuke weapon manufacturing, long range missile-ish sites.

[leveymg]

4. "I'll be home for Christmas . . ." That was the refrain heard all over Europe in August, 1914.

Don't wait dinner.

[Diclotican]

17. leveymg

leveymg

And in 1915, and in 1916, and then again in 1917, and then, when the infamous camel broke its back, in 1918, after 4 year ow horrible war, where millions upon millions died in hopeless war in the trenches..

And then continued in 1939, just 21 year after the last one... After the devastation's of world war two most people deiced it was not worth it anymore - and it have been 70 year now, with not a war in Europe (if we do not count in the balkans... )

The cold war kind of keep the lit on the cattle I guess ...

Diclotican

[AngryOldDem]

5. It will go a hell of a lot longer than 30 days. n/t

[exboyfil]

6. Did someone let Israel know that if you

go ahead with an unprovoked attack, we will not recognize any treaty obligations we have with you (ie you go it alone). On the flip side if Iran uses an unprovoked nuke on you, we will drop one on Tehran. End of story.

[Missycim]

15. No I doubt we would

use nukes on Iran unless they nuked us.

But I dont think we will need to in any case cause the Israelis would turn Iran into a poisoned ruin before we had the chance.


So I am hoping wiser heads in both countries prevail and turn this ship around.

[Jackpine Radical]

77. We wouldn't need to. Israel has its own nukes & delivery systems.

I wish ta fuck these idiot kids on both sides would stop playing with matches around the powder kegs.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

87. Dunno if Israel has delivery system for really big bunker busters

Nice to have if you want to keep things non-nuclear. Hauling a 30,000 lb bomb takes a really big bomber, don't know if Israel has any.

[Jackpine Radical]

88. The sub-thread was about nukes

and Israel certainly has delivery systems for them.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

89. And that might cause the U.S. to jump in

... promising to "deliver" the big bunker-busters in lieu of Israel jumping immediately to nukes.

If Israel wants to wrap this up in 30 days, they'll be chomping at the bit to unleash the nukes.

[raccoon]

7. Month long? Isn't that what we were told about the Iraq invasion?

Remember what the genius said, "Fool me once....won't get fooled again."

[formercia]

20. The Iranians will welcome the Israelis with Candy and Flowers

[Sherman A1]

28. I believe that is the story before every war

It will just be over in a few weeks, the troops will be home before the leaves fall, they will be home for Christmas, etc, etc, etc........

[woo me with science]

67. No shit.. Here we go again.

Had enough yet, America?

[classof56]

82. Yes, and I clearly remember Bill O'Lielly stating dismissively, "It'll be over in two weeks"

Since he'll never admit getting anything wrong, pretty sure he denied saying that. Of course, he "knew what it was like to be shot at in a war zone" 'cause he'd once been a reporter on assignment in Granada, was it? Yeah, right, Bill-O. You're a real war hero...

I suspect that if there is an Israel-Iran conflict and Rmoney/Ryan are in office, the US will most certainly be involved. Time to send my grandsons to Canada!

[nobodyspecial]

8. Quick and relatively painless

Just like Iraq, right?

[dixiegrrrrl]

75. And Afghanistan.

and Viet Nam.
and Korea.

Oh, wait..isn't Russian an ally of Iran?

[Scuba]

9. Six days, six weeks, certainly not six months.

Gee, that sounds familiar.

[Ganja Ninja]

10. And I'm sure the Iranians will be throwing flowers at them when it's all over.

[Chemisse]

12. Bad timing for us

Obama will be forced to support the attack or risk the Jewish vote. You can be sure Romney will be doing some chest beating on Israel's behalf.

[lunasun]

41. yep could happen "conveniently" before US election

we should not attack Iran with Israel period
let the WH know your thoughts b4 it is too late

[KamaAina]

56. What do you think he was doing while he was over there?

Touring the Holy Land?

[Berlum]

13. Persian ghosts will rise from the fog of War

of this we can be certain.

Iran-Persia is no Johnny-come-lately to the bloody-greedy insanity of the Imperial Assault - and Total War routine.

[on point]

14. Delusional thinking and propaganda from a war aggressor and criminal then

[Diclotican]

16. UnrepentantLiberal

UnrepentantLiberal

Ah, something that the Republican Administration of mr Bush said so also - that a war with Iraq would at best last 6 mount, with a stable, democratic administration at place after just one year...

What happened again?... A decade of war - a couple of elections, who by the way ended up in a governance not stable at all, and where not all the Iraqi nation is under control of Baghdad at all.. The north of Iraq, is autonomous, and want independence from Iraq - the only think who stop the kurds from gaining independence from Iraq, is the mighty Turkey army, whose generals have told, rather bluntly, that if the kurds in the north of Iraq is gaining independence, it would mean war with Turkey.. The south of Iraq, are also not directly under the control of Baghdad, and I somehow doubt they will for a long time - the shia muslims in the south have more in common with Iran, than with the sunni controlled Baghdad, a City who by the way are more ethnically cleansed than ever before in its history - now the areas are christians - muslims, and jews - and the jews and christians are on the brink of either being forcefully "bapthisted" into Islam, or being hunted down, either to have to leave or to be killed.. Some claim that christians and muslims come to Iraq, later than Islam, but the facts on the ground, is that both the jews, and the christians was traveling all over this area hound res of years before Islam was made the strongest power in the area at all.. But all this could be a thing at the past - as extremism, on many sides are making things not easy for minorities..

And Iraq of today, is in far worse shape than it was 20 year ago - and it wil take years and years, maybe decades to rebuild everything that is broke, and it wil in the end, be just another strong man who take the power... Hopefully not as bad as Saddam Hussain was - but a strong man who might be able to put the country back togheter.... Even with my naivity, I doubt Iraq would be a democratic country, who would be the envy of the rest of the arabian world anytime soon...

Diclotican

[no_hypocrisy]

18. No such thing as an "in-and-out" war.

The South believed the Civil War would be a matter of months.

The Germans believed the First World War wold be a summer war.

Iraq was sold to the American Public as a military exercise, over in weeks.

Beware when you hear prospective military action in terms of minimal time, lives, and money.

You can't control war once you start it.

[mike dub]

19. what a joke...

War with Iran would make Bu$h/Cheeeeney's 10 year war in Iraq look like a stroll in the park.

[bunnies]

22. Im so fucking sick of wars.

Its just so damned stupid. Last thing we need is to be dragged into another one.

[A Simple Game]

32. It really is stupid, isn't it?

You would think that by now people would know that nobody wins a war, nobody!!!

[bunnies]

38. Nobody except the profiteers, that is.

Which makes it all that much more sick and twisted.

[A Simple Game]

64. And there was a time a profiteer would go to jail for gouging the government during a war. n/t

[newspeak]

65. yeah, someone does win

those who make profits off of war. War is such a lucrative investment. There's a reason gen. smedley butler made his famous speech, "war is a racket."

Meanwhile, back in the country, "oh, the deficit is skyrocketing, we must cut programs for the elderly, children, poor." "we are at war, we have no money to rebuild the american infrastructure." Reminds me of the last days of rome, where the wealthy romans could give a shite about their fellow roman plebes while they extended the empire bringing in slave craftsmen to compete with romans. As the hierarchy's wealth grew, the plebes suffered.

[newfie11]

23. ha ha

tell it to some other fool. Heard this one before,

[sinkingfeeling]

24. Or it could be 20 years long and a couple of hundred thousand dead. I seem to recall

similar things being spoken about Iraq.

[gordianot]

25. If confined to just Israel and Iran maybe a month, how would they have a ground war?

Israel as an already member of the nuclear club Russia and China know enough that a couple Israeli nukes would wreck their economy and infrastructure. The Israeli's are counting on Iran responding in a manner similar to Saddam Hussein just conventional high explosives nothing much nastier than that hence 500 casualties. They are also counting on the United States, China and Russia putting a stop to this stupidity. If the Republicans get in office in the United States all of this becomes more dangerous with wingnut psychos in charge so do it now. What would be a solution is let Iran and Israel have their conventional missile exchanges for more than a month which both sides know in a world of responsible adults will not happen. Look out Iran and Israel the crazies in the United States may be coming back and they do not care about anything but loot to plunder so do it before the election and motivate the next United States President to save your ass.

[liberalmuse]

26. October Surprise?

It would be interesting timing. Israel would love to help push Romney in.

[newspeak]

66. I remember another scenario with iran before an election

still wondering if reagunnnn made a deal to stall the release of the hostages; if he did, I'd say that was down right treasonous. So, we are nothing but puppets to the puppetmasters, watching the drama unfold.

[UnrepentantLiberal]

70. The hostages were freed 20 minutes after Reagan was inaugurated.

I'm not into creative speculation, but that's quite a coincidence...

[xchrom]

27. Arms & military equipment makers must need money. Nt

[CanonRay]

29. And the Civil War was going to last 30 days, as well

Don't believe leaders when they pander this crap...they don' t have to go fight, and have nice bomb shelters to run to.

[Lurks Often]

30. Neither side is capable of moving significant numbers of troops over the distances involved,

so what likely will take place is air strikes against various targets in Iran, small scale naval attacks against Iranian ships and other targets and possibly some small scale commando type raids. In return you will see terrorist attacks within Israel, attacks against Israel's embassy's worldwide and conventional missile attacks against Israel.

[riderinthestorm]

31. No way. The region's already teetering on the brink of a sectarian civil war starting in Syria

A strike at Iran will push the region into flames and Israel will most likely be consumed. They won't go without taking out a few hundred thousands first however (and dragging the US in as well).....

Such incredible, craven stupidity.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

33. Message: Starting a war is great if your enemy can't win.

[Iliyah]

35. And Iran just had an earthquake.

What I understand even the Israelis are against this. Its of course the chicken hawks. I just pray that this will not become WW3 cause y'know that China and Russia will be looking. I think they are going to strike before the elections.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

37. What is it that they hope to achieve?

Taking out a few facilities that may OR MAY NOT BE developing/producing nuclear weapons is not going to end the threat that they claim to be responding to, Iran WILL retaliate against Israel (and the US if we get involved), the Iranian regime will become even more anti-Democratic reform and more hostile to Israel and the US guaranteeing further trouble long-term. There's no way in hell that we'll be able and/or willing to go in there and remove/replace the Iranian regime, so, in the end, all we will be doing is essentially kicking a hornet nest. It will not end well for anybody IMHO.

[Jack Sprat]

49. Aren't those nuclear labs underground?

Like under a mountain or something? Even if they were genuinely refining uranium for offensive weapons, it would take a ground presence to be sure.

It could be designed as a longterm war with some airstrikes and naval strikes to kick it off with further escalation to follow gradually over a generation. You can bet that the month long stuff is a camaflouge. Seems to me that Israel would have already used airstrikes if that's all it entailed. The war hawks and the defense industry are looking forward to something else with Afghanistan scheduled to end in 2014. The Mideast is a goldmine in terms of nonstop warfare and Iran would provide the opportune longterm opponent. I think it would be at least a decade or more to subdue that nation. They were literally throwing themselves at the Iraqi army during that war, virtual suicide lunges at their Iraqi enemy.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

39. If they attack Iran, they may have to worry about

Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, and others deciding that Israel is the danger, not Iran. Especially Egypt. Despite the peace treaty, and despite decades of uneasy peace, the operative word is "uneasy." With the regime change, those who still hate what Israel is doing to the Palestinians may turn it into a two war front. After that, all hell will break loose.

[Coyotl]

40. Sometimes it seems like Israel is acting more like the Roman Empire than their own ancestors

who were enslaved by Rome, dragged off to Europe, ....

[Purveyor]

42. Russia and China need to step up and tell israel to 'knock it the fuck off' and offer Iran a

security pact.

End of issue.

[dash_bannon]

44. Scary

If we've gotten to a point where war is easy, painless on our side, and cheap, we've lost our humanity and dignity.

Sad.

[sofa king]

45. Wow. And Mitt was right there, too.

Nixon and Kissinger ensured that the Vietnam war would continue to seal their election.

Reagan's people got Iran to hold on to US hostages for another four months to seal their election.

Bush lied us into a war to seal his re-election.

Does anyone care to hazard a guess as to what Mitt's people were really doing in Israel?

If we can nail his people on this right now, it's the end of the line for everyone involved.

[hedgehog]

46. The Guns of August?

[sarcasmo]

47. Just 500 dead, did they miss a couple zeros?

[Kablooie]

48. October surprise, coming right up.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

50. The Iranian people will greet you with flowers after you attack them.

500 dead? Are they salivating over this?

If either side stars any war for the sake of war they should be thrown out of the United Nations and blockaded until their leadership surrender to The Hague for a very, very long vacation.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

52. What if another country like Russia gets involved

or China?

If they support Iran then Israel will be dust.

Isn't it better to to develop better relationships instead of Bush type strikes

[wordpix]

69. that's a good possibility since Iran supports Assad in Syria, also supported by Russia & China

[Rosa Luxemburg]

71. China's military is huge. don't wake the sleeping giant

[Dont call me Shirley]

53. It's another round of "Shock 'n' Awe" compilments of the war profiteers.

They are gangreneous appendages.

[xxqqqzme]

55. Rummy is that you?

Finding something to do in your spare time?

[Did I Just Type This]

57. I don't think Obama is stupid enough to get involved with an unprovoked war with Iran

There is no proof that Iran is building up any military nuclear weaponry. They are being monitored day and night by inspectors and video cameras in all of their facilities. The CIA and MI6 have both confirmed there is no military significance to any of their operations.

[Scootaloo]

58. Actually, he might be right

Neither nation can do much more than launch missiles at each other, and both have pretty good missile defense programs. It'd be about hte most futile gesture of warfare that could be made.

Which is why Israel is not actually going to do this.

[Sick of the GOP]

60. Any country declaring war on Iran will regret it. Iran's not Afghanistan.

If not for us surrounding them, they'd probably wipe Israel off the map if there was war.

[Arugula Latte]

61. Ah, yes. They'll start in November and it will be over by Hanukkah. I'm sure of it.

[lunatica]

62. Is that the new way to sell wars? Just say it'll be over in time for dinner?

Sure.

[JCMach1]

63. they will go after Hezbollah at the same time

Ng

[wordpix]

68. hello, Israel? Are you nuts or what? You are surrounded by enemies

none of them will come to the aid of Iran, I'm sure

[I love weed]

73. No need for sarcasm, wordpix,

Iran really has no friends in the area except Syria, and they're in no condition to help anyone, obviously.

The other Arab states are not at all friendly with the Iranians, and most secretly want Israel to stop Iran's nuclear program. Arabs (especially Sunni Arabs) are not anxious to be dominated by Shiite Persians. Nor are Turks. The rivalries are ancient.

Iran is blustering loudly, but the reality is not good for them.

War is most certainly coming soon whether or not we want it, and I for one am ardently hoping for the quick fall of the Iranian Islamic Nazi regime with minimal loss of life. Might not work out that way, though.

But whatever you think of Israel, you have to accept that there is no way that they will passively accept nuclear weapons in the hands of a Nazi regime that continually threatens to destroy them. They won't lie down for The Holocaust, Part II. Nor would any sane nation.

[Proles]

74. Lol, enjoy your stay. Nazi regime? Really?

When was the last time Iran invaded a country or killed millions of civilians? And I assure you that the middle eastern countries rivalry with Iran pales in comparison with their hatred of Israel.

How exactly do you think Egypt will treat this? Much less China or Russia?

What a joke. I was "ok" with the handling of Libya, and could see justified involvement in Syria. But I absolutely draw the line with Iran. I only pray Obama isn't stupid enough to support any kind of strike against them.

[cpwm17]

78. "regime (Iran) that continually threatens to destroy them (Israel)"

Last edited Sun Aug 19, 2012, 04:09 PM - Edit history (1)

Do you have a link for that bold claim?

"Iran is blustering loudly": please explain what you're referring to here.

All I see is Israel and the US threatening an unprovoked attack against Iran, which is (the threat) a war crime.

Iran has no recent history of aggressive wars. Both the US and Israel have histories of aggressive wars and policies - big time. Iran has first hand experiences of this bad behavior.

[wordpix]

81. Iran and Syria are friendly and Assad is supported by Russia and China

So whether or not Iran is a "Nazi regime," the fact is Israel has to be very careful or risk Iranian allies piling on, not to mention others who would love to see Israel's demise.

Also, no one is entering Israel to take Israelis in trains to concentration camps so there is no Holocaust Part II. Hyperbole is not reality.

[Incitatus]

72. That sounds similar to what was said about Iraq. nt

[obxhead]

76. 6 days, 6 weeks, certainly not 6 months.

It took a decade to "end" that war.

[Autumn]

79. The Israel minister is full of shit n/t

[no_hypocrisy]

80. It won't be 30 days if

Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Hezbollah, the Pallestinians, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Al-Quaeda, Russia, and/or China get involved.

[Hugabear]

83. 500 dead Israelis = 5,000,000 dead Iranians

Given Israel's history of heavy-handed responses to Palestinian attacks, I'm sure they'd adopt an "Untouchables" attitude with Iran as well.

[Odd Won Out]

84. Vietnam was supposed to be a short involvement

With Iran's youth supporting the US, we have the demographics on our side.

We just need patience, which is easy to say, but almost impossible with our military industrial complex dictating foreign policy.

[wordpix]

85. so was Iraq

[Odd Won Out]

86. I guess that the only lessoned learned from Vietnam was

don't invade Vietnam.

I wish that the Industrial Military Complex wasn't so involved in our foreign policy.