Exclusive polls: Big warning signs for Senate Democrats

[brooklynite]

Source: Axios

Five Senate Democrats would lose to a Republican candidate if the election were held today and three have approval ratings under 50%, according to new Axios/SurveyMonkey polls.

State Dem Rep Trump Approval
Montana Tester 42 55 Rep. 58
W Virginia Manchin 43 52 Rep. 65
Missouri McCaskill 44 52 Hawley 55
Indiana Donnelly 45 51 Rep. 53
N. Dakot Heitkamp 47 49 Rep. 60
Wisconsi Baldwin 49 46 Rep. 48
Michigan Stabenow 49 45 Re. 47
Ohio Brown 50 45 Renacci 54
Pennsylvania Casey 52 43 Barletta 46
Florida Nelson 53 43 Scott 46

Read more: https://www.axios.com/axios-surveymonkey-big-warning-signs-senate-democrats-09986026-50aa-46df-8094-574cfe5065a3.html

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Surprised to see Tester as the weak link.

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Pro-growth at any cost appeal to deplorables

because they have nothing to lose, and they will squander whatever they get and trash anything that stands in their way

We are losing the social safety net/ common good aspect of governing

Our messaging on this issue is weak, except at the local local grass roots House candidates and local government level

And messaging is being flummoxed by the constant drumbeat of scandal and heinous policies from the Trump administration. The public doesn't know where to focus. Our candidates don't know what to say. Do you bash Trump, his peccadilloes, his policies, his tax cuts, his tariffs, his impact on the poor, or do you show your own record for pro-people policies? Our candidates need outrage. That is a hard sell for the staid level of the Senate, but plays well in the House.

[PatrickforO]

13. I'd say you have a positive message centered on the public good - education, infrastructure,

affordable college tuition, healthcare and Social Security. I'd also say that with everything you say and do, exhibit personal integrity. Talk about personal integrity and how important it is in public servants and government in general.

[onit2day]

37. McCaskill just don't get it. I got her donate letter

where she states she is in the fight of her life and how Missouri went for Trump by 20 points and how republicans seem to always win in Mo.. But I say it is because these dems in Mo keep running as republican light and just don't motivate a base like a true progressive would. I vote for her because I don't want a repub in her place but I'd rather vote for her because I was excited and motivated by her message. If she'd run on a message of Medicare for all. free higher ed., increase in min wage to a livable wage.,net neutrality, protecting medicare and SS and medicaid and support for women's health. I am a life long dem but was disappointed when my senator voted for deregulating the banks, and allowing coal companies to continue dumping in our streams (MO is big coal mining state). Like most others on this site understand we can both be supportive and critical of our elected democratic representatives but that is the point, they are supposed to be "representative" and when their actions do not represent the majority of dems in MO by a huge margin it's time to be critical. I will vote for her because she is a dem but only slightly better than her opponent who in these instances would have voted the same way. Claire needs to stop listening to these corporate dems if she wants a passionate base to come out to vote for her.

[Sophia4]

24. Mostly if not all middle-of-the-road Democrats on economic issues, I notice.

They have not opposed the right-wing leaning atmosphere in their states.

[poboy2]

25. They are not 'middle-of-the-road', they are corporate.

Money talks, principles walk.

[Sophia4]

26. And Americans are hungry for principles.

Money cheats. Money has no soul or values beyond itself.

Money lies. (We see that with the Trump crew.)

Money is a necessity, but when candidates grovel for it, abandon their values for it, their constituents notice and resent it.

[VMA131Marine]

2. Turnout is key

[ancianita]

16. It's how votes are counted. 70% of vote machines are GOP owned. For 14 years we've known.

and yet the public has done nothing. Except Virginia, which switched to paper ballots.

https://www.engadget.com/2018/01/26/voting-machine-makers-are-already-worried-about-defcon/

Last year:

Defcon's hackers breached every single voting machine in the Village. Some in minutes; many in under an hour-and-a-half. E-vote machines were popped by hackers without insider knowledge and by hackers who didn't even specialize in voting machines.

One attendee remarked on Twitter, "Horrifyingly, some were hacked wirelessly (ie no physical access). Many hadn't had OS or basic software patches in over a decade." They added, "Others had been sold off after use, but hadn't been wiped; still had voter data on them. Didn't hear of any with any credible audit trail."

... a study released by the Brennan Center called "America's Voting Machines at Risk" stated 43 states were using machines that were over a decade old in 2016. The report's author, Larry Norden, said before the election, "In 14 states, machines will be 15 or more years old."

[FakeNoose]

27. Any voter can walk in and demand a paper ballot - it's our right

Doesn't matter what state or county you live in. You can walk in and ask for a paper ballot, they have to give it to you.
We should all refuse to vote on electronic voting machines - just to make the point.

[bluestarone]

30. Is this a fact? I've never heard this before.

Link? This is AWESOME if true!

[ancianita]

31. Nobody I know has ever said that. When it's not the official method, those ballots often get 'lost'

Would you please link some authoritative support for your claim?

[FakeNoose]

32. I will find it and post it here

I'm sure it's somewhere on the League of Women Voters website, but it might take me time to find it.
It's called BMD for people who can't or won't use the electronic voting machines.

[ancianita]

33. I'll look around, too. It's funny that their site wouldn't put that front and center.

[MFM008]

29. Exactly

See: ALABAMA.

[beachbum bob]

3. so where is Cruz's approval rating? Dean Heller?

[MosheFeingold]

20. Cruz

Who had a number of opponents, got 85% of the vote from Republicans. In raw numbers, that's more votes than the entire Democratic field put together.

We're going to be stuck with the asshat for 7 more years.

[TranssexualKaren]

4. Generic polling is always hard on incumbents

Let’s see the candidates that the Republicans put up and you’ll see different numbers

[brooklynite]

5. Fair point, but how may people here react to stories about the generic House ballot?

[DownriverDem]

10. I don't

Generic polls don't mean a thing.

[LanternWaste]

39. More accurately...

More accurately, "Generic polls don't mean a thing... to you."

If sincere and curious, the objective measures granted by the tools of generic polls are easily found. Or, you could simply continue with more unsupported allegations.

[grantcart]

35. That is different. These are a particular incumbent vs a generic opponent

The House generic ballot is a generic Democrat vs a generic Republican.

What makes these polls more unreliable than a generic vs generic is that generics don't have personal negative numbers which will impact the result. No matter who is on the Republican side of the ballot they will generate some negative numbers. In this case only one side has real negative numbers.

[FarPoint]

6. I prefer a more valid poll..

Survey Monkey is a toddlers toy.

[Thirty by 30]

7. I've come to view all polls ...

... as bullshit. Like many elections, in fact, these days.

[Fred Sanders]

18. All polls? Kind of gloomy viewpoint for a new poster. Most polls are scientific, some are voodoo.

Know the difference. Not to mention 9 months before an election is the greatest unpredictability by far.

[LanternWaste]

40. What specifically leads you to place faith in your allegation?

What specifically leads you to place faith in your allegation?

[Loki Liesmith]

8. Survey monkey is garbage but

I say we lose 2-3 D seats net in the fall

[LanternWaste]

41. Of course you say that...

Of course you say that...

And of course you predict that, as well.

[Loki Liesmith]

43. What why? Do I even know you? Why the attitude?

The Senate is really a heavy lift this year. Lots of weak D seats and open seats.

The House we will win and win by a large margin.

[Iliyah]

9. My opinion, most polls are corporation polls . . .

Polls control the narrative of what type of messaging that corporations want replayed to the masses while they undercut the actual consensus of what is really going on especially in politics. The closer we get to November, the more "bad" news we will get on Dems. Hopefully Dems will come out in "huge" numbers.

Again my opinion, polls like these open to door for stealing, cheating, et al.

[TranssexualKaren]

11. It also needs to be pointed out that Natham in Virginia exceeded the poll numbers...

Because Democrats are ready to crawl through glass to vote this year. However I agree that the senate will probably lose ground this year on account of numbers.

[turbinetree]

12. I just gotta ask.......................

if and when it comes to high crimes and misdemeanors, what would the republican do if they get elected....................was this in the polling question...................I fucking doubt it.....................

Reliability on this or any poll should be directed toward what it "happening" today, on three people the have plead guilty for those high crimes and misdemeanors associated with the sexual predator, and over 16 assholes have been indicted --------------what is the principles of these fucking republicans running for office..........................zero.

I rest my case.......................


November 2018 cannot get here fast enough

[Fla Dem]

14. Interatctive maps with CNN, Cook Political report etc forecasts.

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election-predictions/

2018 Senate Election Forecasts
These maps reflect the current outlook of several pundits for the 2018 Senate races. We'll be adding other projections as they become available in the months leading up to the November 6th midterms.
Click or tap any of the thumbnails below for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2018 Senate forecast.

[beachbum bob]

17. one would have to discount all the democratic wins in past the year in red districts AND

ignore the level of anger and its still building through out america against trump and his republican enablers. But I dare say, not only will democrats not lose ground they may even add 1 or 2 seats.

survey monkey poll?? Fucking really?....

[Fred Sanders]

19. In other (better) crystal ball news, Democrats overtake Republicans in House control:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142007425

[bitterross]

21. Thanks for the "heads up"

I know where to focus all my tainted out-of-state donations now!

[BumRushDaShow]

22. "SurveyMonkey"

I.e., targeted internet poll.

[Egnever]

23. Oddly enough that mirrors pretty closely the banking rules vote

Should I be surprised?

[BeyondGeography]

28. Plus Brown and Casey agreeing with Trump on tariffs

[onit2day]

38. Exactly.Glad U noticed.That vote did not reflect the will of their voters

[Fiendish Thingy]

34. Arent these part of the group supporting repeal of Dodd- Frank? Nt

[Dawson Leery]

36. Every other poll has Tester and Manchin ahead by at least 10

and with a net positive approval.

"Survey Monkey"

[NewJeffCT]

42. The Senate Map for Democrats is probably the worst senate map ever for any party

people keep thinking Democrats are going to win back the senate an a huge anti-Trump wave and the odds are almost impossible. Almost

8 Republican seats are up for grabs and 25 or 26 Democratic seats are up for grabs, many in states won by Trump.

In a fantastic year, Democrats would hold even in the Senate and pick up 30 or more seats in the House. However, the media will say that Republicans holding the senate is a big win for Trump and/or a repudiation of Democrats.

Heaven forbid that Democrats lose ground in the Senate, as the media will tout that as a huge victory for Trump and Republicans, even if Democrats pick up a Tea Party like 60+ seats in the House.