CNN Poll: More see Trump win likely as Biden leads crowded Democratic field
Source: CNN
WASHINGTON (CNN)Americans are becoming more likely to think President Donald Trump will win a second term in office, while Joe Biden stands atop a crowded field of Democrats perhaps looking to replace him, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.
The public is split over whether they think the President will win a second term -- 46% say he will and 47% say he won't. But that's a steep improvement for him since March, when 54% of adults said they thought he'd lose his bid for a second term. The share seeing a second Trump win in the offing has risen across party lines. The increase is a bit sharper among men (up 8 points), independents (from 39% in March to 47% now) and those who are enthusiastic about voting in this year's midterms (from 37% in March to 46% now).
In the race for the Democratic nomination to face Trump, former Vice President Biden leads a massive potential field. The poll asked Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to choose their preferred presidential nominee among 16 possible candidates. Biden tops the list with 33% support, followed by independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the 2016 runner-up, at 13%. Sen. Kamala Harris of California follows at 9%, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at 8%. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry garnered 5% support.
In a large primary field, Biden tops on who Democratic voters prefer
Former Vice President Joe Biden 33%
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 13%
California Senator Kamala Harris 9%
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 8%
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker 5%
Former Secretary of State John Kerry 5%
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg 4%
Texas Congressman Beto ORourke 4%
Former Attorney General Eric Holder 3%
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti 2%
Attorney Michael Avenatti 1%
New York Senator Kirstin Gellibrand 1%
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar 1%
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick 1%
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/14/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-bernie-sanders-2020/index.html
edhopper
(33,584 posts)keeps portraying him as more popular than he really is and that somehow, his base can win him the election.
This poll isn't about who will vote for him, but about how people perceive his chances.
As long as he stays under 40% approval, he loses.
NoMoreRepugs
(9,435 posts)madville
(7,412 posts)It all depends who he is running against. I'm not convinced yet that Hillary is not running again either.
edhopper
(33,584 posts)thanks to Comey and the Russians was at 41%.
And he still lost by 3 million votes.
Maybe the 50,000 idiots in the three States who thought it didn't matter will get a clue this time.
And maybe the GOP won't be able to suppress as many votes.
cstanleytech
(26,293 posts)their Constitutional duty to keep someone that was unfit to be President out of office.
edhopper
(33,584 posts)the Framers designed the EC exactly to keep people like Trump from becoming Pres.
usaf-vet
(6,188 posts).... that is very adept at.... well stealing elections using all possible means. Some barely legal others definitely not at all legal. That was, IMO, the drawing card that brought the Russian interference to this state. And I believe future investigative activities will prove the manipulation of elections in our state is a fact.
elmac
(4,642 posts)I'm hoping for another women candidate if she doesn't run, someone who can get Dems to the polls
elocs
(22,582 posts)to run again to avenge herself against Trump by keeping her name out there so if there is no clear choice of Democratic candidate she will rise to the occasion so to speak.
It's like here in Wisconsin I always suspected after Feingold lost his Senate seat to Johnson in 2010 that he was looking to get revenge and win it back in 2016 and that didn't work out well.
LBM20
(1,580 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)the more progressive candidates who've shown an interest in running in 2020.
dem4decades
(11,296 posts)like Feingold. Maybe I'm wrong. And I really don't think Hillary has any interest in another campaign. I hope not.
edhopper
(33,584 posts)that and voter supression:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=11276192
MyOwnPeace
(16,927 posts)Katie McGinty SHOULD have won - without any election "interference."
Think about it:
President Hillary Clinton
One less PUG senator (Pat Toomey) and one more Democratic senator - and a female at that!
THAT is what was stolen from us - and the PUGS still will not do anything to prevent it from happening again in 2018.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)but she is hated too much. The right has successfully made her this villain. They turned Dems in reliably blue states against her. They successfully demoralized so many by saying she was as bad as Trump. So many just stayed home. We need those people to vote next time. We need someone to excite them. Hillarys day as a presidential candidate are over. Heck she even gave up her security clearance. I think she should just enjoy the rest of her life. She should enjoy time with her family and work on causes that are important to her. Forget all the haters and live her best life.
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)(and no Hillary is not running again).
Right now there is a super crowded Dem field with no front-runner.
Once we get there, if it's a decent candidate, then Trump will suffer by comparison.
If it's another candidate that is tailor-made for him to campaign against, then it's going to be another toss up race.
lancelyons
(988 posts)We have to fight through this or America becomes GOP.
edhopper
(33,584 posts)GOTV is crucial. But to ignore the systematic scale unbalancing the GOP thrives on makes GOTV not enough.
We cannot continue a system where the Dems need at least 5% more of the vote just to break even.
KPN
(15,646 posts)trueblue2007
(17,223 posts)or not alive.
He is not healthy. I would be surprised if he survives to 2020.
He looks very unhealthy these days.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)He is not healthy. I would be surprised if he survives to 2020.
He looks very unhealthy these days.
I predict this all up in here ^^^^
He looked bad when he stole the election in 2016.
But man alive, he's gaining weight, and looks worse @ 71 in 2018
And mentally, it's slipping more & more.
KPN
(15,646 posts)I want him to be mercilessly mortified for the damage he has done and is doing to our nation, the world and mankind.
thegoose
(3,115 posts)Coo over Dumpster having his "best week ever" 😀, it makes me wonder what the fuck is wrong with this country.
FBaggins
(26,748 posts)Not great
madville
(7,412 posts)Jerry Brown isn't going to run, Cuomo nope. Maybe a Gavin Newsome in 6-10 years. Deval Patrick is about as close as it gets and he'll be lucky to break 5% in this large a field.
malchickiwick
(1,474 posts)Not sure if he will throw his hat in the ring, but he is a sitting gov. with the chops, IMO.
PatrickforO
(14,576 posts)He's term-limited and so Jared Polis is the Democratic candidate - Polis should easily win over the legacy-klan member Walker Stapleton. He's a real jerk.
So, Hick might test the waters.
shanny
(6,709 posts)Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)PatrickforO
(14,576 posts)stick his finger up and see how the wind is blowing.
You know, he kind of lost me when he supposedly drank that fracking fluid as a publicity stunt. I called up his office and said that I didn't believe he really drank fracking fluid, and that if he wanted me to believe that fracking fluid is really that safe, then he needed to go to a recently-fracked site and slurp up some backwash.
LOL. That didn't go over too well with the person on the other end of the line, but during about 2012 through 2014 there was a lot of play in the Niobrara shale formation, and Hick was sending out 'cease and desists' to local governments who were trying to impose additional regulation on the frackers.
I remember one county commissioner, Nancy Jackson, fought hard in Arapahoe County for closed-loop fracking systems, and deep-deep red Focus on the Family Colorado Springs actually declared a moratorium on fracking.
In the end, the locals prevailed, because Colorado is nothing if not fiercely local. We can and do work together quite often, and very well most of the time. But the state doesn't get to tell locals what to do.
theaocp
(4,240 posts)Midterms are everything. This is clickbait that allows people to bash Dems (see! YOUR candidate is LOSING!). GOTV and fuck everything else.
MFM008
(19,814 posts)Polls are bullshit.
This is veiled support for the maggot.
He WONT last 4 more years.
jodymarie aimee
(3,975 posts)and he reports the day of the 2016 elections HRC was favored to win by 85%. The day of the election.... I will NEVER believe a poll again for as long as I live...
bdamomma
(63,868 posts)believe in polls either. Everyone needs to VOTE our lives depend on it.
shanny
(6,709 posts)Because if it is the latter I'd say they were right on: it was a shock to almost everybody, including Rump.
OTOH, polling about who voters were going to vote for showed a very close race, one where her lead never cleared the margin of error.
KPN
(15,646 posts)tallies are! We have not lost aPresidential election since Bush Sr., and even that one is questionable. They have all been stolen,which is why the GOP is so brazenly stealing our democracy away from us today. Why would they stop given what theyve been able to get away with in the past? They see the world as theirs for the picking.
If we don't win the midterms, then we might not have a Country left in 2020.
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)i'd say Biden myself, but that can easily change.
madville
(7,412 posts)The campaigns kick off right after the midterms so it's right around the corner. Several people on that list are visiting Iowa and NH this weekend already.
LuvLoogie
(7,011 posts)to a continued reign of grift and bigotry? More policies from Stephen Miller? More assaults upon minorities, immigrants, the poor, women, the LGBT community? The environment?
Is America really that complacent? Has the media succeeded in normalizing trumpism?
The Liberal Lion
(1,414 posts)I think the answer is we already did acquiesce.
srobertss
(261 posts)Ive finally accepted that for approximately 40% of voters, the lies and cruelty are a feature, not a bug. It took a long time for this to sink in and its very disheartening. I find myself hoping for an economic downturn to jolt the base out of their bubble. Thats really sad because thats wishing for harm.
still_one
(92,216 posts)and the rest of the MSM and their legitimizing and normalizing racists, bigots, and sexists
violetpastille
(1,483 posts)tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)I doubt Biden will survive the primary battle if he decides to run and I have my doubts about that as well. There are several possible candidate's that will generate more enthusiasm than Biden in spite if the fondness most of us have for him.
still_one
(92,216 posts)midterms.
Of course CNN was the station that had a discussion about "whether Jews were human"
So why am I not surprised about this
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a50906/are-jews-people-was-a-real/
orangecrush
(19,571 posts)getagrip_already
(14,764 posts)You know the cycle. It's where they show up and what they do now that tells you who is running hard.
As long as NONE of the candidates that ran last time run again, this will go smoothly. If we bring back the bitter trash from the last round, he will cost us the election AGAIN.
BadgerMom
(2,771 posts)sarcasmo
(23,968 posts)Kamala Harris / Elizabeth Warren
madville
(7,412 posts)If you have two old white guys running against 3 different people of color and mix in 3 or 4 different women, they all split the remainder of the non-old-white-guy vote 6 or 7 different ways. Someone like Biden or Bernie could cruise to the nomination with 30% of the primary vote.
I think Harris would be a good VP pick for someone like Biden. Who knows what Bernie would do as far s that.
LBM20
(1,580 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Sexism and ageism should not enter into the equation.
madville
(7,412 posts)He has a lot to loose (Hire a proofreader over there CNN)
[url=https://ibb.co/eDxC4U][img][/img][/url]
cannabis_flower
(3,764 posts)They need better proofreaders!
turbinetree
(24,703 posts)out of 400 million in taxes.....................but ask some fucking stupid question who they would they vote for in some fucking hypothetical race with a democrat against a fucking traitor and fraudster.....................go fucking figure, just to get some fucking ratings for the day, so that your talking heads have something to talk about for about a week..............
Don't even ask that simple question.......................nope, just give him the bag to carry more shit for his ego, psychopathic narcissistic malignant shit and just give him a free pass.......................fuck you CNN
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)If the Dems take the House next month, they will put a halt to Trump's agenda and open investigations of their own. Mueller will complete his report, more old white assholes will be dead and more young people will be of voting age, and I'm supposed to believe that a president that has never gotten above the mid-40's at his highest point in approval ratings and has almost always been significantly under water and who lost the popular vote the last time is some evil mastermind who is unbeatable?
Trump has never been strong. He whole presidency has been one of an angry rage-a-holic stumbling from one crisis to the next. He's a hero to a small minority of idiotic assholes. The rest of his support comes from people who know he's an idiot but are willing to tolerate him because they stupidly see themselves as benefiting from him somehow. He is totally beatable and if he's not in jail or under indictment by 2020, I forsee we will kick his ass all the way out of the oval office and into prison. He barely won the last time, and wouldn't have if it wasn't for the fascist electoral college and vote purging (and probably tampering as well).
woodsprite
(11,916 posts)For that, I choose either (in order of preference); Harris, Schiff, Castro. Im sure there are others that should be on the short list, like Warren and Booker, but we need someone from the west or south.
FreepFryer
(7,077 posts)...is to depress Democrats before the midterms.
MFM008
(19,814 posts)great observation.
BeckyDem
(8,361 posts)LovingA2andMI
(7,006 posts)Why is this here? Is This LBN Two Years and 23 Days In Advance. Mods?
Polybius
(15,428 posts)To my knowledge, they don't say anything about posting from the future.
LovingA2andMI
(7,006 posts)And You Actually Believe That Knowledge of 76 Posts Forwards The Determination of What To Post in LBN.
Welcome to DU. Hope you enjoy your stay....
Polybius
(15,428 posts)I know it doesn't translate well online, but I was obviously making a joke, hence the smiley emoticon.
I had no idea it would offend you. Sorry.
madville
(7,412 posts)There are several of these potential candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire this weekend, it's already underway actually.
elocs
(22,582 posts)The table was set for him and he chose to walk away.
We really don't need any more old, white men as president. At age 66 I'm looking forward to voting for someone for president who is younger than me.
dalton99a
(81,514 posts)PatrickforO
(14,576 posts)I'm going over the Blue Book, because we have a lot of initiatives on the ballot. As usual a few are good. Some are stupid. And some would be downright disastrous.
Thekaspervote
(32,773 posts)Strongly dem if Americans wanted another 4 years of the shitler
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/22/trump-2020-democrats-matchup-790890
Another poll
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-trump-2020-beat-poll-1052185
Another poll.. I could keep going and going
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/402960-poll-trump-trails-biden-sanders-warren-in-potential-2020-matchups
LBM20
(1,580 posts)BlueIdaho
(13,582 posts)This poll is pointless and has zero credibility. No election has ever been won or lost on a public opinion poll taken two years before an election.
Bengus81
(6,931 posts)Let's get everyone out to vote in this one FIRST and then worry about 2020. If people set on their asses and don't vote 2020 doesn't matter anyway.
PatrickforO
(14,576 posts)Who the heck are they polling?
And I hope Sanders doesn't run again because, forgive me for saying this, but the Dem machine will see he's defeated, and it will be another Pyrrhic victory with a bloodied candidate emerging from a fractured party to contend in the general election. Not refighting the primary at all - it was what it was - but this really is how I see what happened. Hillary is great - I supported her, but we all know what happened in November 2016.
This time around, I'd like to see Patrick, Holder, Harris or Booker in there. And, of course, I really like Warren a lot. Always have, but now that she's introduced the Responsible Capitalism Act, I think she's the total bomb! Do you folks have any idea how many problems that one thing would solve?
What a fantastic idea - a doable thing that would actually make Americans' lives much better. The RCA is an idea whose time has definitely come, and I urge you to all a) vote straight blue so we can take both houses, and b) call up your US Rep and Senators in support of the Responsible Capitalism Act. The primacy of the shareholder has created a diseased, amoral, sociopathic society that is a far cry from what we need to be for the sake of our species and this world upon which we live.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,731 posts)There are plenty of other good possibilities, and anyhow polls are meaningless at this point.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Go Bernie 2020!!!
Basement Beat
(659 posts)I cannot wait until I get another political one.
usaf-vet
(6,188 posts)If Biden is at the top of a Democratic ticket in 2020 who will be his running mate.... successor? You know a heart beat away!
Here are my concerns.
1. We need to win 2020.
2. We need a ticket that can win in 2020.
3. We NEED youth somewhere on the ticket.
4. We need to usher in the next generation of democratic national leaders.
5. We need a young(er) women on the ticket as the natural succession in 2024. Or sooner given Biden's age.
Warren, Harris, Klobuchar (in no particular order) would be my choices.
Kirsten Gillibrand is not on my list because IMO she made the wrong decision, prematurely, and with an ulterior motive... Al Franken might have run for president in 2020. She want to kill his momentum.
I love Bernie's platform but he is a lightening rod for the right wingers to attack. His time might have past when Hillary was pushed to the front. And for me it's his age. Him and Biden.
vi5
(13,305 posts)That is great. Other than her and Bloomberg, nobody on there falls under "hold my nose" category, although some I like more than others. Glad to see Cuomo nowhere near the list. Even if this was a pre-provided list, I like the fact that he didn't even make the cut of people who were on the radar.
Vinca
(50,276 posts)JustAnotherGen
(31,828 posts)Bloomberg. Any combination that omits him is fine.
Progressive Jones
(6,011 posts)I believe he will be impeached and removed from office, imprisoned, deceased, or physically incapacitated in some way by that time.
sinkingfeeling
(51,457 posts)Trump may be indicted. The US may be at war. Or it might not have an election in 2020.
Worry about this one in November.
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)Fucking ridiculous. What is this?
sarcasmo
(23,968 posts)llmart
(15,540 posts)They are always looking for the next horserace to keep their viewers on edge. What a crock. At the grassroots level we need to ignore this kind of headline and just keep on working for what we know is right and good for this country. Hell with the mainstream media.
paleotn
(17,930 posts)Very smart, very capable people have him in their crosshairs. And the thing about dirt is, it doesn't stay hidden for long...ever. In short, mangofuhrer is doomed, one way or another.
Mr.Bill
(24,300 posts)the stock market will have crashed and the problems the Trump family have stirred up in the middle east will have exploded into a war and gas will be well above $5-6 a gallon. Any Democratic candidiate will crush him in a landslide.
YOHABLO
(7,358 posts)Turbineguy
(37,337 posts)all part of a very cunning plan. The GOP will crank up the Mighty Wurlitzer of Hate, but they won't know who to go after until it's too late.
lancelyons
(988 posts)Very misleading title. Its not more people see trump winning... Its more people than the last poll
46 saying that he will and 47 saying that he wont win isnt MORE PEOPLE
thegoose
(3,115 posts)A network that has Rick "Frothy" Santorum as a regular panelist.
Kablooie
(18,634 posts)We haven't even had the midterms yet.
There are so many things that will happen in the next two years that any predictions right now are utter nonsense!
PHEH!!
moondust
(19,989 posts)gotta have their 3 Trump train wrecks a day or they might lose viewers and advertisers.
Good government is boooorrrring.
Squirrel!
sellitman
(11,607 posts)I'm waiting for the calls.
OneBro
(1,159 posts)Trump is in office, at least in part, because a large segment of society did not take his candidacy seriously. In short, we wrongly thought America was better than this; that America would NEVER elect a human as lacking as Trump. We. Were. Wrong.
The article now says more people are taking seriously the idea that Trump could win again, with or without Russia's help, BECAUSE THEY NOW RECOGNIZE THAT A LARGE SEGMENT OF AMERICA IS AS MORALLY LACKING AS TRUMP AND THEY WILL ABSOLUTELY VOTE FOR HIM AGAIN. Once you factor in widespread voter suppression, apathy, and the well meaning but mis-informed, you better bet your sweet ass that Trump could win again.
Many of us thought and hoped that Bush and Cheney were headed to jail for their many crimes, but they were rewarded with a second term. A second . . . fucking . . . term.
If the article helps to wake people the fuck up about the state of our democracy, then I say sound the alarm until even the dead are taking the threat seriously.
2020 may be a tougher race than meets the eye. There does seem to be more awareness and purposeful strategies for confronting vote suppression, which will mean that some of the purple states in the South and the Upper Midwest will go blue. But the right candidate is needed to turn out youth vote and to run an innovative, forward thinking campaign. A strictly anti-Trump campaign is not enough, IMO.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)People backing him that will do anything to win. President Obamas economy is doing great so it seems like the idiot accomplished something. People might not like him but they might say at least I have a job . 🙄
I honestly dont know how I would survive 6 more years of Trump. He stresses me out so much. Two years has felt like an eternity. He just always has shit going on. Chaos in chief....My son keeps saying, What did he do or say this time? He is so upset that he cant vote in midterms. He wont be 18 until March...
bdamomma
(63,868 posts)on November 2018?
still_one
(92,216 posts)BlueStater
(7,596 posts)Great idea! Let the future of the country be set by guys who will be dead in 15 years!
LiberalFighter
(50,942 posts)Maxheader
(4,373 posts)If the tariffs remain in place prices will continue to rise for consumer goods.
If cheetoz keeps shooting its mouth off...
WhiteTara
(29,718 posts)in only 19 days and we're worried about Joe Biden running? We don't even know if he will be alive. Focus!
zentrum
(9,865 posts)One who, on top of that, gave Anita Hill a rough time.
We need a woman, or a Prfson fo Color. Or at least a younger man, if White--one who breaks usual expectations.
ellie
(6,929 posts)God I hate the media.
RandySF
(58,887 posts)JHan
(10,173 posts)Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(108,010 posts)Everyone thought Bush I would be reelected after the Persian Gulf war.
yurbud
(39,405 posts)ProfessorGAC
(65,060 posts)The question is apropos of nothing. Therefore all the excellent statistics in the world will not provide any predictive value in this poll.