U.K. Parliament to Hold a Crucial Brexit Vote

[brooklynite]

Source: New York Times

LONDON — British lawmakers are scheduled Tuesday evening to hold a second, critical vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to leave the European Union, after the bloc’s negotiators offered last-minute legal pledges intended to help her push the deal through.

After two years of fraught negotiations, frustration and delays, the vote is a crucial moment in Britain’s efforts to leave the European Union and holds the potential to bring profound consequences for the country’s economy and its place on the global stage, to say nothing of Mrs. May’s hold on power.

Mrs. May flew to Strasbourg, France, on Monday to negotiate changes to the withdrawal agreement, hoping to persuade British lawmakers to reverse the overwhelming rejection of the deal they delivered in January.

The changes were intended to help bridge the gap on the confusing and thus far intractable issue of the border between Ireland, which is a member of the European Union, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, but it was unclear whether the alterations would be sufficient.


Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/12/world/europe/uk-brexit-vote.html

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. Attorney General's legal advice is "not much is changed by the additions" - May likely to lose today

Cox: risk of remaining in backstop reduced but not eliminated

These included a unilateral statement from the UK of the government’s interpretation of the backstop; a “joint interpretative instrument”, clarifying the fact that it is not intended to be permanent; and a joint political statement, signalling both sides’ intention that a new relationship will be in place by 2020, making the backstop unnecessary.

Cox’s advice says: “I now consider that the legally binding provisions of the joint instrument and the content of the unilateral declaration reduce the risk that the United Kingdom could be indefinitely and involuntarily detained within the protocol’s provisions at least in so far as that situation had been brought about by the bad faith or want of best endeavours of the EU.”

He adds that if the backstop is triggered “simply because of intractable differences” between the two sides, the UK would be left with “no internationally lawful means of exiting the protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement”.

That clearly falls short of the unilateral exit mechanism or clear time limit the government initially said it would seek from Brussels.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/12/brexit-cox-revised-deal-reduces-risks-of-being-trapped-in-backstocox-risk-of-remaining-in-backstop-reduced-but-not-eliminated

Live reaction here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/12/brexit-mps-vote-theresa-may-backstop-deal-jeremy-corbyn-politics-live

The key Commons business is about to start.

At 12.30pm Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, will make a statement on his legal advice. That should run for at least an hour.

Then, after a 10-minute rule bill, MPs will vote on the business motion setting the timetable for the debate. Normally that goes through on the nod, but there could be a mini row about MPs not being given enough time to consider the new documents.

Then, perhaps shortly before 2pm, Theresa May will open the debate.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

So it looks like she loses tonight. After that - I'd say a majority of MPs will vote against 'no deal', and then, probably, for trying to extend the Article 50 time limit. But how that would be attempted, I've no idea.

[Javaman]

2. this is certainly not Britain's finest hour. nt