Bond market flashes recession warning as portions of of the yield inverts again

[maddogesq]

Source: CNBC

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below that of the 3-month bill, inverting part of the yield curve. The yield curve is the plot of interest rates of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. An inversion has been a reliable recession indicator in the past, though there is a debate over which segment of the curve is most important.

The Federal Reserve — as well as President Donald Trump's chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow — consider an inversion of the 3-month and 10-year curve as a key barometer.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/09/us-bonds-investors-monitor-us-china-trade.html

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Now, I am not a big Kudlow fan but this is just another indication that the Trump slump is coming. This administration, like Bush 2, keep making the same mistakes.

[Anon-C]

1. And I knew this economy was the greatest ever because...

[DetlefK]

2. A slump in the early 2020s has been predicted since 2017. Trump is only hastening it.

I saw two interviews with two economic experts. One was a leftie and one was an ultra-capitalist. They didn't agree on anything except that there WILL be a recession and that it WILL be Trump's fault.

[Jarqui]

3. I like the idea of spending on infrastructure but:

Democrats say Trump agrees to $2 trillion for infrastructure, but details unclear
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/04/30/donald-trump-nancy-pelosi-rivalry-reopens-during-infrastructure-meeting/3622097002/

that and a little war could keep the economy artificially afloat for Trump. And he knows it.

If the recession hits before Nov 2020, Trump's support will fall away.
I wouldn't so this deal for the good of the nation. The money would be better spent in the hands of a Democratic President and congress.

[IronLionZion]

5. Recession is coming, they're hoping it will be when Dems are in charge

so they can put the blame on us. They might still blame Nancy Pelosi and the Dem house but it would be a stretch. The dip in health care stocks was blamed on Dem presidential candidates supporting reforms like pharma price controls or single payer

[Jarqui]

7. The GOP will lie and say anything.

But a bunch won't stick because the Dems haven't implemented anything in the last two years and the GOP blocked them prior to that.

The guy is desperate. He'll probably get a drone to fly into the Trump tower and blame it on Iran.

[IronLionZion]

4. Trump's buddies have sold high and took the profits

and are looking forward to the Trump slump so they can buy low

[kimbutgar]

6. All the things that caused the bubble in 2008 and the Obama administration fixed have been reversed

The downward signs are beginning. Housing market slowing down, companies closing and these tariffs are going to hit consumers and cut into retailers profits. Just in time for the November 2020.
You have an idiot President with idiot advisors who are not the smartest but greediest people. Kudlow couldn’t get hired on Wall Street and ended up on CNBC. I worked in the financial industry on a trading floor and people would laugh when he came TV.

[Juneboarder]

8. Trump likes to say how great the economy is, is a result of his doing...

I bet he'll deflect this to Obama, though. Bad news... must be Obama. Good news... definitely because of Trump.

*PUKE*

[Oneironaut]

9. Imo, the economy will have a blow out in the summer.

Not an opinion educated on economics or anything, but just my opinion. I think it would have happened regardless of who is President, but I think Trump is going to make it 1000X worse by melting down.