We'll block trade deal if Brexit imperils open Irish border, say US politicians

[Soph0571]

Source: The Guardian

Any future US-UK trade deal would almost certainly be blocked by the US Congress if Brexit affects the Irish border and jeopardises peace in Northern Ireland, congressional leaders and diplomats have warned.

Boris Johnson has presented a trade deal with the US as a way of offsetting the economic costs of leaving the EU, and Donald Trump promised the two countries could strike “a very substantial trade agreement” that would increase trade “four or five times”.

Trump, however, would not be able to push an agreement through a hostile Congress, where there would be strong bipartisan opposition to any UK trade deal in the event of a threat to the 1998 Good Friday agreement, and to the open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn

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The implications on this are clear. However, they are trying to warn full on delusional idiots - they will shrug and say that Congress is bluffing as this narrative does not fit with their fantasy Brexit strategy. They are very good at ignoring the facts, they excel at it!

[DetlefK]

1. Trade? What trade? The UK is a service-country, not an industrial country.

What would the UK export to the US?
Cars? The US has their own cars.
Planes? The US has their own planes.
Ships? The US shipbuilders already have enough trouble competing internationally due to Elaine Chao's sabotage.

The UK is a financial hub. It imports. It doesn't export. The days of british industry are gone.

[Roland99]

3. $350 billion in 2018 exports for the top 10 industries...

Machinery including computers: US$72.5 billion (15% of total exports)
Vehicles: $55.4 billion (11.4%)
Gems, precious metals: $47.5 billion (9.8%)
Mineral fuels including oil: $45.1 billion (9.3%)
Pharmaceuticals: $30.1 billion (6.2%)
Electrical machinery, equipment: $29.4 billion (6.1%)
Aircraft, spacecraft: $19.7 billion (4.1%)
Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $19.2 billion (4%)
Plastics, plastic articles: $12.8 billion (2.6%)
Organic chemicals: $12.4 billion (2.6%)

[paleotn]

14. However, their trade deficit in goods and services is massive....

Worse than the US as a percentage of GDP. In relative terms, the UK doesn't produce nearly enough for their own consumption. They are the EU's banker and brokerage house. Well, they were. There's been rumblings for moving those ops to Frankfurt, Paris, Brussels, etc. before the curtain of trade barriers falls. Who could blame them? The EU is where the market is, not the UK itself.

[Recursion]

4. You know trade includes services, right? (nt)

[3Hotdogs]

7. Clotted cream. Burberry stuff. John Courage beer. Stilton. I forgot Stilton cheese.

Now if ya never tried clotted cream.......

[DetlefK]

9. Just the other day I saw a recipe for clotted cream. You just need cream and an oven.

[displacedtexan]

16. I tried that.

Wasted perfectly good cream. Made a few clots but the rest stayed liquid. Fortunately, we have access to clotted cream in specialty grocery stores here.

[BlueIdaho]

17. It only really works with unpasteurized heavy cream... nt.

[FBaggins]

20. Not as relevant as you might think

The key is to what extent the UK can replace exports/imports between them and the EU with expanded trade with the US. IOW, are we a potential producer of many things that they currently import from the EU and are we a potential consumer of many things that they export?

The balance between the relative size of those larger categories doesn't have much impact on the question.

[ehrnst]

10. Are you referring to Pete King? (nt)

[ehrnst]

13. So you don't think that the Democratic led congress has stood up to Trump?

Really?


Google "Speaker Pelosi."

[ehrnst]

19. You think that Democrats are not standing up to Trump at all if they're not impeaching asap?

That was the question, and you didn't answer it.

You replied with a bewildering and rather offensive, graphic rape analogy instead.

[rpannier]

5. If the vote needed to block the trade deal is Sen Collins

Britain will get the deal
Collins will tell us all how concerned she is and this is really important
Speak for 30 minutes of the angst she went through
Then, vote with whatever trumpolini wants and move on

[Sherman A1]

6. Seems to be the pattern

For her

[bucolic_frolic]

8. 4-5 times more trade?

For what, British technology? Like Jaguar, Land Rover (both Chinese owned now and ending their internal combustion engines), BSR turntables? Biscuits in tins?

Trump is flatulence.

[Lonestarblue]

11. Trump is always zero sum.

He means that the UK increases imports from the US 4-5 times while the US increases nothing. The Brexit supporters are just being willfully stupid to trust anything Donald Trump says. The whole world knows that he lies every time he speaks. Why do the Brexiters believe him?

[paleotn]

15. Your last sentence sums it up....

Flatulence. But, hey! Scotch consumption has certainly gone up since his election*. There's that at least!

[JudyM]

21. Locking.

Forum hosts agree this is analysis/speculation, so not important news as necessary to start a thread in LBN.
Please repost, if you’d like, in GD.