60% to 70% of the German population will be infected by the coronavirus, Merkel says

[denem]

Source: CNBC

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that up to 70% of the German population will likely contract the coronavirus, suggesting that the government’s priority is about “slowing its spread.”

Germany has so far reported 1,565 cases of the virus and three deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University, and the chancellor has come under fire for her government’s handling of the response.

“When the virus is out there, the population has no immunity and no therapy exists, then 60 to 70% of the population will be infected,” Merkel told a news conference in Berlin on Wednesday, according to Reuters.

“The process has to be focused on not overburdening the health system by slowing the virus’s spread. It’s about winning time.”


Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/angela-merkel-most-people-will-get-the-coronavirus.html

[dewsgirl]

1. Refreshing honesty.

[lapfog_1]

2. she is correct

320 x .6 x .03 = 5.76 million people dead here in USA.

7000 x .6 x .03 = 126 million people dead around the world.

worse

320 X .6 x .2 = 38.4 million people that will require hospitalization here in the US. we have naybe 800,000 with maybe only 160,000 that are not in use at ant one time.

We better take some drastic measures soon to slow down the virus...

[flibbitygiblets]

3. This is why R's are trying to brand the virus as "Chinese Coronavirus"

Following Trump's playbook, they're trying to deflect, stoke racism, and shift blame to others.

We need to counteract their narrative by calling it something that blames Trump for failure to act.

I call it "Captain Trumps", a play on "Captain Trips", the catastrophic plague from Stephen King's "The Stand"

[dalton99a]

4. +1

[Bayard]

5. I'm worried about my niece there

Her husband is stationed there, Army Ranger, and they live on the base. She's 6 months pregnant.

I haven't seen anything about how the virus could affect a fetus, but I can't think its good.

Now, my brother and his wife in southern Indiana have been diagnosed with it. Flu tests negative. Burning lungs and fever. Hospital won't take them. Waiting to hear back from doctor on what to do next. Think they got it from one of her real estate clients who had just returned from overseas.

So super worried about my family now.

[Skittles]

10. I just read that they have not found any transmission from mum to fetus

and that children are thankfully not getting hammered - there's been no child deaths from coronavirus

[DFW]

11. My younger daughter is 6 months pregnant with her second

They live near Frankfurt.

[Bayard]

12. My brother and his wife turned out to have viral pneumonia

Recovering on antibiotics.

Sure would have helped if they were tested, and saved a lot of angst.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. Dire but realistic

Slowing the throughput to the health care system will maximize outcome. A fully functional universal health care system and a cooperative informed populace helps. We have not a lot of that, and pockets of chaos are sure to arise.

[pat_k]

7. Has 60 to 70 percent of the Chinese population been infected?

143,000 or so is the total active and recovered detected, that's just a little over .01 percent of 1385 billion . Many areas in China are apparently far less affected.

The "can only slow the spread" notion seems to me to be an excuse to implement less aggressive, less expensive efforts based on cost/benefit -- with the benefit side of the equation much reduced ("whatever we do, a vast majority will get infected anyway, and will ultimately kill the same number of people, so there is no real benefit.)

If I lived in Europe, I'd be a little concerned about spread from Germany due to moderated response.

[NickB79]

8. The Chinese put most of their country on lockdown

Before the disease established fully outside Wuhan. It was an immense blow to their economy and cost them many billions of dollars to do so.

The rest of the world thought they could handle the virus without resorting to such draconian methods. They were wrong, as the Italians have recently found out. That delay has now made it almost impossible to contain this like China did.

[pat_k]

9. Yes, such draconian measures don't fly ...

... outside of a dictatorship.

Perhaps anything less than those measures can do nothing to change the overall percentage of the population that contracts the disease. Time will tell if the 60-70% predictions are true. And I think time will tell if measures -- even at this point -- can change the total "ultimately" infected.

Perhaps I'm deluded, but I believe there are ways to reduce the number overall who get infected. More widespread testing, etc. I don't think every county is destined to become "another Italy." Customs, like kissing on both cheeks as a greeting certainly increased the number infected during the "circulating, undetected" phase. Relative to the U.S., a larger portion of their population is over 65. They also have more smokers. A few things that make them more vulnerable.