Congressional doctor predicts 70-150 million U.S. coronavirus cases

[brooklynite]

Source: Axios

Congress' in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting this week that he expects 70-150 million people in the U.S. — roughly a third of the country — to contract the coronavirus, two sources briefed on the meeting tell Axios.

Why it matters: That estimate, which is in line with other projections from health experts, underscores the potential seriousness of this outbreak even as the White House has been downplaying its severity in an attempt to keep public panic at bay.

Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of the U.S. Congress, told Senate chiefs of staff, staff directors, administrative managers and chief clerks from both parties on Tuesday that they should prepare for the worst, and offered advice on how to remain healthy.

Read more: https://www.axios.com/congressional-physician-predicts-75-150-million-us-coronavirus-cases-fec69e77-1515-4fbc-8340-c53b65c22c53.html

[Iliyah]

1. Is it because of the lack of response from our dumb arse government? . . .

[dewsgirl]

2. +1000

[Botany]

3. C.V. Math I hope I am wrong

70,000,000 x .034 (3.4% lethality rate) = 2,380,000

150,000,000 x .034 (3.4% lethality rate) = 5,100,000



The new disease, called COVID-19, has a fatality rate of around 3.4%, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed on Tuesday. That's an uptick from previous estimates — a recent study from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention found a fatality rate of 2.3% among more than 44,000 confirmed coronavirus patients.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-deadly-is-novel-wuhan-coronavirus-2020-2

[bucolic_frolic]

5. Slowing proliferation with sound public health policy would allow the health system

to not be overwhelmed. But by delaying testing and closures and some believing Trump's dismissing the virus as a hoax, we're past that point. Add in the non-insured. And realize incubation periods and method(s) of transmission are still fluid.

We are in for it. Germany's Merkel says 70% of population might get the disease. Such a rate would bump the US total to north of 250 million cases.

250,000,000

[rdking647]

7. thet actual fatality rate is probably much less

probably 1% or less

there are probably a huge number of cases of people who got it,recovered from it and no one ever tested them

[Botany]

8. But those people who got it and recovered were actively shedding corona virus all over.

And we have a 2 week period when a person with covid 19 is asymptomatic but he or
she is highly contagious. Plus will we have the hospital bed space to treat all the people
with the illness? And might that not cause people to die who wouldn't have because
they didn't get the needed care?

[peaverok]

11. That percentage is incorrect

Yes more people may have it then have been tested but also more people may have also died from it then are being reported as well. They may be listed as unknown, flu, pneumonia, etc.

More importantly, the fatality rate (which is not being listed as < 1%, that is only speculation) is an average across all age brackets. Children under 9 it is 0% (so far). People over 80 it is ~15% and people ages 70-79 are at ~8%. It may decimate our elderly population.

[TexasBushwhacker]

14. So that's how they'll cut Medicare!

Just kill off the old folks!

[NickB79]

13. Even 1% will vastly overwhelm our hospitals

And then the mortality rate will skyrocket as doctors are forced to enter triage mode and choose who they let die for lack of resources. This is what happened in Wuhan, China, and what is currently happening in northern Italy.

[Ghost Dog]

20. Exactly this. Then mortality from other causes will also rise

for the same reason

[duforsure]

4. Instead of them getting stimulus all cruise ships

Should become floating hospitals for the people with the virus keeping them isolated off the coast while getting treated there, then moved to a land based facility when its run it coarse and they are better. Our health care system will be getting hit hard and overwhelmed soon if this continues. They should right now be setting them up to do this, and keeping more out of hospitals if possible. They shouldn't give tax rate deductions because it would hurt SS, so they should consider sending everyone a check for say $2500-5000 each and that'll help people get pass this. Only to those making under $150K a year.

[procon]

6. ...and widespread panic ensues.

Do I trust the average American to be calm me rational in a major crisis? Hell, NO!

Between the savages who think they are entitled to not only all the stuff in the stores, but your stuff too, and all the wretched helpless folks, this won't be pretty. We are I far behind there's no way of mitigating the upcoming disaster.

Trump's government is in shambles with every agency acting as independent players and issuing their own set of facts (mis)information. Trump's incompetence and lack of leadership has significantly increased the risk for the whole country, and he's still at it, lying, touting his numbers, bragging about money issues, all the while painting a rosy fantasy about the spread of the virus.

[LizBeth]

9. 326 million in the U.S. I heard it was going to be about 80%, so that number is low from what we

have been told.

[Toorich]

10. ....Is it wrong....

....for an Okie in the dark, who is feeling poorly, to go to his reThuglican Senators'
or Representatives' offices and ask if they have any test kits available?

[yaesu]

12. probably closer to 200 million. nt

[Lokilooney]

15. More like 400 million in the US

You might be saying that's not possible due to "the population not being that high" but that just how bad it's going to be. I know it's true because I read it on the interwebnets.

[NickB79]

16. Your "concern" is duly noted

A lot of people are going to regret they were so dismissive when the dust settles.

[Lokilooney]

17. I'll concede the worst case scenario is a possibility

There are no guarantees. But I can't help but think about all the other things that were supposed to kill us all. Swine flu, Avian flu, MERS, SARS, West Nile virus, Zika virus, Ebola, Y2K etc. I guess I'm just banking on history, in which all dire prediction have been wrong.

[totodeinhere]

18. We have to make sure we are not part of the one third.

It could be a matter of life and death. I have no plans to leave my home for any reason. As long as I can hold out here I should be safe. But of course I will eventually have to come out. And if I do have to go out I will take extreme caution. I also think that if I get cabin fever I could go out and drive around. I should be safe enough in my car with the windows rolled up. But I would probably want to keep that to a minimum to save gas so I don't have to possibly get exposed to it at a gas station.

[DFW]

19. Sounds about right

Not everyone will get infected, not everyone will get deathly sick, and not everyone will even recognize the symptoms when they have it. Here in Europe, I suspect that at this point, most of us have been exposed to it. Whatcha gonna do? I suspect most people are healthy enough to withstand the virus and recover. We are a long way from "throw out your dead."

Warren Zevon: "I'll Sleep When I'm Dead"

Which, come to think of it, he now is.