U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages

[Dennis Donovan]

Source: NYT

The 100-page federal plan laid out a grim prognosis and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government.

By Peter Baker and Eileen Sullivan
March 17, 2020, 7:49 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON — A federal government plan to combat the coronavirus warned policymakers last week that a pandemic “will last 18 months or longer” and could include “multiple waves,” resulting in widespread shortages that would strain consumers and the nation’s health care system.

The 100-page plan, dated Friday, the same day President Trump declared a national emergency, laid out a grim prognosis for the spread of the virus and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government and potentially employ special presidential powers to mobilize the private sector.

Among the “additional key federal decisions” listed among the options for Mr. Trump was invoking the Defense Production Act of 1950, a Korean War-era law that authorizes a president to take extraordinary action to force American industry to ramp up production of critical equipment and supplies such as ventilators, respirators and protective gear for health care workers.

“Shortages of products may occur, impacting health care, emergency services, and other elements of critical infrastructure,” the plan warned. “This includes potentially critical shortages of diagnostics, medical supplies (including PPE and pharmaceuticals), and staffing in some locations.” P.P.E. refers to personal protective equipment.

<snip>



Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-plan.html

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"The plan, which was unclassified but marked “For Official Use Only // Not For Public Distribution or Release,” was shared with The New York Times"

Fuck. We weren't supposed to see this.

[msongs]

1. everything this crowd does is designed to make his buddies money nt

[Sherman A1]

2. Well,

if there was to be no vaccine for 18 months, then this scenario was sort of a given......

I'm surprised by he surprise....

[BigmanPigman]

18. Me too. I listened to a pandemic expert today

and he said this will definitely go into the Fall and mentally we should prepare for it NOW. No rose colored glasses but realism needs to be applied for long and short term planning. Not just as a society but on a personal level we need to prepare for this....financially, mentally, etc. It will affect all aspects of all of our lives.

He said that until everyone becomes immune and/or we have a vaccine this will continue in waves, that is what happens.

[PatrickforO]

33. Makes me wonder what our republic will look like on the flip

side.

Perhaps we will, as Obama told us, get in tune with our better angels. Maybe society will look different in a good way, more caring, more fit to live in, more gentle and tolerant.

Maybe the economy will look different because selfishness will have gone by the wayside and sharing will be the new 'cool.'

Maybe we will grow up as a species and begin planning forward for the continued welfare of all life on the planet.
.
.
.
.
Nah.

[BigmanPigman]

34. I agree...Nah!

Nope, not in any long term and meaningful way. I am a realist.

[Baitball Blogger]

3. We just never appreciated it when we had it good.

Now watch what happens to the income gap, when you don't have middle class consumers holding enough extra money to consume.

Oh, the one thing that can change this model is a vaccine.

[Dem2theMax]

4. Of all the times for the worst person in the world to be in charge.

[BigmanPigman]

19. It is the worst case scenario playing out.

[PatSeg]

23. I was thinking the same thing

I would feel a lot better if someone else was president. I hate the thought of giving Trump that much power.

[flibbitygiblets]

27. In August 2016 Trump asked black voters "What have you got to lose?"

Keeps popping in my head over and over.

[Kablooie]

29. Still 80% of Republicans trust Trump to manage this according to NPR

It's like they've opened their heads and let their brains slide out and drop into the garbage disposal.

How can ANYONE have confidence in this stupid, putrid mass of empty ego.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. Really really depressing news

I was wondering all along how they weren't arriving at similar conclusions, and they just weren't telling us or just didn't want to, or feared panic. Seeing it in writing creates a trembling sense of dread. All of us have made plans, well adjust your plans to this news. Were do you start? Shortages may not only apply to medical supplies. Industries are already missing weeks of output, and it may remain sporadic here and there for months. Hope they focus on medical supplies and food. How will those industries remain unscathed?

[BootinUp]

6. Sounds like a political document nt

[roamer65]

7. 1918-1920.

3 waves, 3 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

[Dennis Donovan]

8. Hopefully a vaccine will be available in 12 months instead of the projected 18 months n/t

[jberryhill]

26. Here's the problem

How long do you wait to determine if a vaccine is safe, before you essentially vaccinate everyone.

[cstanleytech]

13. Well keep in mind our medical knowledge has increased dramatically since then

as well as the speed of which we can share knowledge and communicate globally so that should hopefully prevent a repeat of that this time.

[Stonepounder]

36. Getting to a new vaccine for a new disease is time consuming no matter how much you know.

Test on a very few to make sure it doesn't kill them. Then test on animals that are susceptible to the disease. Does it cure them (or prevent them from coming down with it?). Now test on a group using a double blind study. Do people who get the vaccine get the disease significantly less often than the ones getting the placebo? Are there side effects and if so, how serious are they?

If you don't do the proper steps you end up with something like the thalidomide fiasco.

At the same time I'm sure they are working on something that will cure you if you come down with with it, and that can take even longer.

[cstanleytech]

37. Yes, I know it takes time for a vaccine but until then we do have other things now that we did not

have then that can help deal with some of issues that would cause death for a great many of those that become infected with this virus as well as give a better chance of survival for those who become severely infected than we had back in 1918.

[Stonepounder]

38. Totally agree with you on that.

Now, if only we could get the Trumps out of the business of making the test kits....

[cstanleytech]

40. I would place getting the Trumps in prison for life ahead of that one. nt

[NickB79]

9. There will be rioting in the streets

Suddenly being a prepper isn't looking so stupid after all.

[DSandra]

10. Societal collapse doesn't seem so far fetched anymore n/t

[EllieBC]

12. I've been saying this. Everyone is ok with lockdowns, for now.

But in areas where supplies are already short (think of food deserts in large cities), lockdowns with not even a backyard go go play in? No place to really buy food? Not a damn thing to do? No one allowed to go anywhere? It’s a powder keg waiting to blow.

[NickB79]

14. And Americans own 400 million guns in this powder keg

Boom.

[EllieBC]

17. Someone on FB posted an article that gun sales are surging in some places.

This is not going to be ok. The curve needs to be flattened but too many restrictions, too much loss of income, too little access to food and outdoor activity and it’s all going to go very bad very quickly.

[JudyM]

31. And add a crazy, divisive and incompetent grifter for a leader into that mix.

[cstanleytech]

39. Gun sales have surged before. Remember when they thought Obama was gonna take their guns? Sales

surged then as well.
Yes, I am sure we will have nutjobs like when they took over the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge but we will deal with them.

[LudwigPastorius]

11. 18 months...

Holy shit. How am I going to survive?

I can't be out of work for 18 months. I've got, like, 3 months of savings. After that, I have to start selling things or taking money out of my retirement account.

[TomCADem]

16. We Saw How Trump and Republicans Acted When They Shut Down Federal Government

Remember how he bragged about how federal workers where cheering him on asking him to hold out.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/425377-Trump-shares-article-blasting-federal-workers-calling-for-long-shutdown

Trump shares article blasting federal workers, calling for long shutdown

President Trump on Monday shared an op-ed from a writer claiming to be an anonymous senior member of his administration who harshly criticizes federal workers as disloyal to the White House and worthy of losing their jobs.

The writer of the op-ed, published by conservative news site The Daily Caller, argues the partial government shutdown is an opportunity for Trump to greatly reduce the size of government.

“On an average day, roughly 15 percent of the employees around me are exceptional patriots serving their country. I wish I could give competitive salaries to them and no one else,” the op-ed reads. “But 80 percent feel no pressure to produce results. If they don’t feel like doing what they are told, they don’t.”

Later in the op-ed, the author states that the first goal of the shutdown should be to win better security particularly at the southern border. Uniformed border officials should be paid, but nonessential employees should be let go, the author writes.

[ancianita]

15. If we're on our own & REAL scientists (not corporate mercenary scientists) create a vaccine, I know

the first group to be denied access to it:

Every single Senate Republican complicit with The Big Stall on the House's H.R. 6201: "Families First CoronaVirus Response Act." Along with WH presidential staff. Nothing personal, just doing the best we can.

WE are the economy that Wall St., Treasury and banking rest on. They can wait their turn for vaccinations.

It's called national triage. Nothing personal. Just good, standard medical practice.

[BigmanPigman]

20. Ditto!

[BadgerMom]

21. K and R

[patphil]

22. If this is what actually occurs, then we are in for a prolonged period of chaos in our country.

At the very least we could have a depression to rival the 1930's.
At the very worst, it could result in widespread shortages, severe economic hardship, and a high potential for violence in the streets.

This isn't even considering the huge numbers of Americans that could die from the virus, and large numbers of survivors having long term health problems.

I don't like to say things like this, because it portends a fearful time for Americans in particular, and beyond, out into the rest of the world in general.
We do need to prepare ourselves for this alternative.

I hope it doesn't come to this.

[PatrickforO]

35. Sadly, I don't own a gun. And have never been a prepper.

If I'm alive at the end of this, on the flip side, I may do things a bit differently.

[rickford66]

24. He did say it was perfect .... a perfect storm.

I got enough rum and coke. Just need toilet paper.

[CousinIT]

25. Excuse me. They're PLANNING TO DO THIS? DELIBERATELY? N/T

[lavenderdiva]

30. I think the article means

The plan to combat the shortages brought on by Covid-19, not that they are planning for there to be shortages, if I am reading it right

[djacq]

28. INACTION COULD HAVE RESULTS!

Mnuchin warns senators lack of action could result in 20% unemployment rate, source says;

[link:https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/steven-mnuchin-unemployment-warning-coronavirus/index.html|

[Dem2theMax]

32. But, but, but, the Republican nurse who lives across the street from me

said today that the only place find out what is really happening, is guess where?

Yep, Faux 'news.' She said everyone else was overreacting.

A nurse? I'm so glad her next door neighbor told me this, rather than her saying it directly to my face, because my jaw fell on the ground when I heard it.

She has helped so many people where I live, does it on her own time, does case management for people. I thought surely this was going to change her mind about Trump. Nope.

They are truly hopeless. Absolutely nothing will penetrate their minds.

I still gave her a roll of paper towels because she was out. I should have traded her for it. A roll of paper towels and she has to vote for Biden.

[olddad65]

41. Putin could not be any more proud of Trump for fucking things up so much in the US

It is the new Russia.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

42. Kick

[riversedge]

43. " Fuck. We weren't supposed to see this." good lord!!