Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

[left-of-center2012]

Source: CNBC

Economists at the Fed’s St. Louis district project total employment reductions of 47 million, which would translate to a 32.1% unemployment rate, according to a recent analysis of how bad things could get.

The projections are even worse than St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s much-publicized estimate of 30%. They reflect the high nature of at-risk jobs that ultimately could be lost to a government-induced economic freeze aimed at halting the coronavirus spread.

A record 3.3 million Americans filed initial jobless claims for the week ended March 21. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect another 2.65 million to join them this week.

During a CNBC interview last week, Bullard said the jobless number “will be unparalleled, but don’t get discouraged. This is a special quarter, and once the virus goes away and if we play our cards right and keep everything intact, then everyone will go back to work and everything will be fine.”

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html

[underpants]

1. That $1,200 should cover everything

No worries.

[at140]

2. No worries, the gov't can print unlimited amounts of money.

They don't even need paper and ink. Money is created electronically by borrowing from FED.

[Igel]

5. Doesn't have to cover everything.

And there's no claim that in the event of a natural disaster, somebody else has to take a hit and not us.

If your mortgage is suspended, then that's gone. If you have no work-related expenses, ditto.

What's left are the actual day-to-day expenses. Food, basic transportation (but if you're locked down ...), utilities.

Now, rent, I don't know what's going on with that. It'll vary from city to city, I suspect.

Otherwise the $1200 should easily cover a month, and $500 for a dependent.

But keep in mind the other 70% (according to a really bad prediction, 70%) will still have their income. I've seen a lot of people saying how because of the epidemic they need far more money than $1200 in addition to their usual income and I continue to not follow their logic. If I didn't work at home, I'd need the same amount; working at home I'm saving an hour a day in travel and $30 in gasoline. Utilities will go up slightly, but not that much. (In fact, I'm saving more. I get out less, so it's harder to stop at the store to pick up snacks, some crap I don't need, or stop to eat out.)

[Kali]

9. other loans and credit card bills?

insurance, medical bills to name a couple of other things people might be paying regularly on.

[Brainfodder]

12. Especially in low rent NYC and San Francisco AND.....

[LisaM]

14. And Seattle.....

we got locked down earlier, and renters have it bad enough in this city to begin with (even as they are trying to force most of us to become renters, in a state where rent control is illegal).

[PSPS]

15. LOL. And you know Moscow Mitch will try hard to kill the next bill Pelosi sends to deal with this.

[warmfeet]

16. Yup.

Gonna invest it in toilet paper. Should be sitt'n at the top of the pile in no time.

[forthemiddle]

17. Unemployment is going to cover alot

Thanks to the Schumer (and Pelosi) push, unemployment insurance will now cover a vast majority of people.
In my case I have been furloughed until the crisis is over. In Indiana I will be receiving $390.00 a week for the State and an additional $600.00 from the Federal Government. I am under the impression that they will come together. That will be $990.00 a week. That will help tide me over until I can go back to work.

[underpants]

19. That is true

I was being snarky.

The unemployment supplement will go a long way.

[Firestorm49]

3. There are rumors of civil unrest in Italy.

Let’s hope that, in the event of very high numbers of unemployed, we don’t see a rise in the crime rate here.

[Wellstone ruled]

4. Okay,we now have

some hard facts coming from a real source. Golly,you think Mnuchin's 30 million estimate was light in order to cover his ass? One of Obama's Economic Advisors said between 40 and 50 million will be the real numbers with only 20% rehires as things break open again.

[sandensea]

6. Trump always did remind me of Hoover.

Except Hoover's heart was in the right place - but for his stick-in-the-mud conservatism that prevented him from taking bold action.

Cheeto's more like having Idi Amin in the middle of an all-out crisis.

[bucolic_frolic]

7. No stopping it now

We had our first case of coronavirus case in late January. Now we have more than 150,000. Tease out that growth rate an additional 2 months and you'll see the destination.

We can only flatten the curve so much. I think the wave will be flatter, but extended.

[area51]

8. Time for an expanded

CCC.

[sandensea]

10. That's SOSHULISM!

"Right, Herbie?"

[Magoo48]

13. When do we begin calling homeless encampments "Trumpvilles".

[JCMach1]

18. Not possible to even log in to the Texas system

It's completely overwhelmed.

Thing is... If you have current benefits you have to login and claim them every two weeks. I also have no money for God knows how long because their website can't handle the traffic