US elections 2020 Michael Moore warns that Donald Trump is on course to repeat 2016 win
This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by JudyM (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).
Source: The Guardian
Moore, who was one of few political observers to predict Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, said that “enthusiasm for Trump is off the charts” in key areas compared with the Democratic party nominee, Joe Biden.
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“Are you ready for a Trump victory? Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again? Do you find comfort in your certainty that there is no way Trump can win? Are you content with the trust you’ve placed in the DNC [Democratic National Committee] to pull this off?” Moore posted on Facebook late on Friday.
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Moore identified opinion polling in battleground states such as Minnesota and Michigan to make a case that the sitting president is running alongside or ahead of his rival.
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“The Biden campaign just announced he’ll be visiting a number of states – but not Michigan. Sound familiar?” Moore wrote, presumably indicating Hillary Clinton’s 2016 race when she made the error of avoiding some states that then swung to Trump.
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/29/michael-moore-donald-trump-repeat-2016-warning
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TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)WTF IS HE DOING TO HELP ELECT BIDEN?
BlueIdaho
(13,582 posts)Is getting tiresome.
Rustynaerduwell
(774 posts)If more people listened to his message in 2016 Trump would not be in the White House. More people need to listen to this message now.
RandySF
(81,341 posts)I don't know anyone who is.
still_one
(98,883 posts)opposite because of the blatant attempts to suppress the vote
Mr.Bill
(24,906 posts)to try and remain relevant.
dware
(17,783 posts)He's still relevant?
The Velveteen Ocelot
(129,271 posts)but that anyone could think there's anything OK about Trump is just baffling to me. They've been fed so much bullshit that they think they're eating steak.
dware
(17,783 posts)Spot on, what they don't realize is, that steak is in actuality, a shit sandwich.
Tom Traubert
(117 posts)On a 50 mile bike ride, I counted 15 Trump flags, one “I’m a Republican, but not a fool. Vote Biden”lawn sign, and not a single other Biden sign or flag. On my daily 15 mile commute, I see countless NRA stickers on cars, regularly see Trump stickers, but only rarely see a Biden sticker or stickers supporting other Democratic candidates. Rural upstate NY still supports Trump despite the fact that he does nothing for them, mainly because he his not a “lib.” This election is far from over.
SergeStorms
(20,022 posts)It's the NYC area and several other liberal areas that have carried NY in the blue column. Every small rural town in NY is basically republican. I know, I came from a small upstate NY dead-red town, and every small town in the county was dead-red.
Tom Traubert
(117 posts)If it weren’t for NYC, NY would be a Red state. But upstate NY is emblematic of rural America. Trump could again win the electoral college without winning the popular vote. Nothing should be taken for granted.
lastlib
(27,610 posts)"A politician will be successful in direct proportion to his ability to convince a majority of voters that the bullshit he's feeding them is actually whipped cream."
I had that on my wall until Obama's second term.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Fuck that Ralph Nader lover! Fuck Moore and his "both parties are the same" bullshit.
Thekaspervote
(35,815 posts)Anyone who hangs around with the likes of susan sarandon and nina turner is not a friend to the Dems...PERIOD!!
jrthin
(5,215 posts)
stillcool
(34,407 posts)
George II
(67,782 posts)
ancianita
(42,973 posts)50% to 46%,
while a survey from the Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group found Biden and Trump statistically tied at 47% in Minnesota, and
Trump narrowly leading Biden in Michigan.
The margin of error for the poll, which surveyed 1,048 people, is 2.98%.
Is the Biden campaign supposed to ignore all polls?
Do we just claim we know the electorate better than GOP and just follow a game plan even when given new information?
George II
(67,782 posts)ancianita
(42,973 posts)Because campaign pollsters aren't talking to us.
Their knowledge could be the basis of their strategy/tactics, but it would help the rest of Democrats to know the electorate at this late stage in the game. Maybe they know the turnout of younger voters better than the rest of us, but we shouldn't be in the dark about that.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)He was right in 2016 and wrong in 2008 and 2012.
He's likely wrong in 2020.
iluvtennis
(21,470 posts)ancianita
(42,973 posts)to pay attention to.
Auggie
(32,913 posts)Sure, Joe wins the popular vote by several million, just like Clinton, but Trump wins just enough electoral votes in battleground states.
Take Moore's warning seriously. The Right is good at gaming the system.
BlueWavePsych
(3,319 posts)Even half of that needs to be taken seriously.
D23MIURG23
(3,137 posts)He's like some right wingers I've met, who thought Trump was going to win, and decided they were nostradamus when it happened. They actually got a lucky guess.
If you look at polling models, they all predict a Biden win, and if you listen to Alan Lichtmann's historical model, it predicts a Biden win. Could the polling be wrong again? Sure. Could Trump still win? Sure.
But the available evidence at the moment doesn't point to that outcome - so keep that in mind.
ancianita
(42,973 posts)those states? Are we RE-polling?
Are we acting as if we take nothing for granted, or just falling into the "first news bias" that blinds us to new info?
Mick Travis
(106 posts)Please don't write off his opinion. I am a lifelong Democrat and will of course be voting for Biden/Harris, just as I voted for Hillary. I too see this election being a repeat of 2016, although I hope and "pray" I'm wrong.
Like 2016, Trump will kill us in rural Amerikkka. We will destroy him in the cities. The suburbs are up for grabs. It is folly to write Moore off, no matter what you may think of him.
It's going to be close and once again the election will be decided by very few electoral votes. Even if we win, Trump will refuse to leave. The head of the Joint Chiefs said yesterday the military will not get involved. It's going to take an armed insurrection, and we're not the side best equipped to do that, because we believe in non-violence and fairness and decency.
I predict the entire election will boil down to John Roberts.
(Biden needs to get to the battleground states and fucking live there ASAP)
I think you highly underestimate our side, there are literally hundreds of thousands of us that are combat veterans and aren't afraid to fight for what we believe in, even if it means having to resort to violence as a last resort to protect ourselves and our great Constitution.
Please don't underestimate what we are capable of when pushed to the edge, which we are at now IMO.
Traildogbob
(12,598 posts)Ready to fight, again. Democracy is not a spectator sport. My hate is coming to a boil. Not promoting violence, but not gonna run hide.
ancianita
(42,973 posts)Welcome to DU. 
BlueWavePsych
(3,319 posts)his warning should be heeded. If you have but ONE complacent friend, his/ her vote can make a difference particularly in swing states. Can't be stressed enough ... vote early or in person!
dware
(17,783 posts)
The_REAL_Ecumenist
(933 posts)progressives & liberals are NOTHING but tree hugging pacifists who HATE & REFUSE to even touch guns? ARE YOU HIGH? Listen, JUST because we don't shout & brag that we have guns, DOES NOT FUCKING MEAN, we don't. What it ACTUALLY means is that we are secure enough to know that we have nothing to make up for, (if you get my drift), by bragging about them. It makes NO sense to broadcast what you have. TRUST ME. I am married to a NATIVE Texan who would slap the taste out of ANYONE who accused him of being a repub & frankly, I don't know ANY TEXANS, (my mom's family has lived in Navarro county, Corsicana, etc & the surrounding area for at least 150 years...She was born in Rice & I still have literally 100's of cousins in that area). These are STAUNCH but ethical Democrats, ie, they WILL NOT & HAVE NOT supported corrupt Democrats & VERY RARELY have voted for ANYTHING with an R before their name since the Dixiecrat devolution.
Anyway, me, my husband & COUNTLESS AMERICANS like him are ready to defend the innocent, vulnerable & OUR COUNTRY & if NEED BE, lay our lives down for them. After all, as a BLACK WOMAN, I would only be doing what we were the FIRST to do against the British...DIE for THIS country. 'Amemba Crispus Attucks? A BLACK MAN, the first ACTUAL patriot who died for this country, BEFORE it was even a country! So, there's that.
jcgoldie
(12,046 posts)Was he right in 2008 or 2012? His whole thesis that poor whites in the rust belt are so enthusiastic about Trump because Democrats have forsaken them completely ignores the primary motivation that poor whites support Trump because they are drawn to the racist message and at heart he's still just a disgruntled Bernie Bro.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)He's definitely disgruntled and he's got a chip on his shoulder. He's the Nader-lover who said that there's no difference between the Democrats and the Republicans. That's also a mantra often heard from his cult-like devoted fans as well as his favorite politician. In the end, Michael Moore is a grifter. When he's wrong, it's forgotten and never mentioned again. When he right, he's hailed by his cult as being some sort of political genius. Fact is this: He's NO political genius. He's just a cynic who parades around as though he's wiser than the rest of us.
LiberalLovinLug
(14,586 posts)
Here we go again. Did they learn nothing from 2016?
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)The Biden campaign knows what they're doing.
Vogon_Glory
(10,203 posts)That proved right in 2016 when poor Hillary failed to take rust-belt discontent into account.
There have been some demographic changes since then. If Joe wants to win, he should not only shore up teetering Midwestern support, but also campaign in NC, AZ, and FL. Texas might also be in play.
betsuni
(28,763 posts)Everybody knows the most frequent word in her speeches was "jobs." She describes many of her plans in her book.
jcgoldie
(12,046 posts)...is just whitewash for racism and blaming it on Hillary Clinton as you and Michael Moore do is completely disingenuous.
Shoonra
(602 posts)Despite our enthusiasm for Biden, there is a collection of large demographic groups that are willing to vote for Trump.
If we allow ourselves to be overconfident then we will neglect to campaign and to vote and Trump's side will win.
Consider it an uphill battle right through Election Day!
JI7
(93,261 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Michael Moore is a grifter... a total fraud. He's a Nader-loving jerk who argues that "both parties are the same".
FUCK HIM!
If he had b----s he would have done a doc on that rather than one that trashed the Green Energy movement.
d_b
(7,463 posts)and the Democrats can't really compete with that. I won't be surprised if Trump wins.
Trump is such a piece of shit that I still think he's going to lose, but Joe is no rockstar candidate like Obama was. We'll just have to hope that Americans have seen enough of shithead.
betsuni
(28,763 posts)So tired of the "omg the Democrat didn't come to my state and kiss my butt so I'm not voting" nonsense. No evidence that rallies make any fucking difference.
ancianita
(42,973 posts)The big takeaway is that the more Biden's lead narrows, the greater chance of a Trump "technical" -- aka, rigged -- knockout. Per 2016.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
The graph comes from the analysis below, which is similar to what Carnacky has said, overall, about poll reliability on MSNBC.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-lead-the-race-for-congress-but-the-national-environment-will-probably-change/
Mick Travis
(106 posts)Thanks for the welcomes. 
If Joe wants to win, he should not only shore up teetering Midwestern support, but also campaign in NC, AZ, and FL. Texas might also be in play.
Agree 100%.
If the country had even half a brain, the election would be over and Biden would be working on his plans for immediate change, but unfortunately we live in one of the dumbest countries politically on the planet. I have traveled a fair amount in my lifetime, and wherever I've gone, the natives are stunned when an American shows up who even pays attention to politics. Most, including many Democrats, walk around in a fog of complacency and an unfounded superiority which stuns our international friends. We are not the greatest country in the world that so many Americans assume we are. We're a bloated over-confident people in the best of times, and now we're as ugly as any country the world has ever seen.
CaptainTruth
(8,056 posts)If a Trump supporter casts an ENTHUSIASTIC vote that doesn't mean it counts for 2 votes.
Since 2016, has he done ANYTHING to expand his base & win over new voters? No, he hasn't.
Since 2016 has he done anything to DRIVE AWAY some voters who gave him a chance in 2016? YES, a lot.
I could be wrong, but I just don't see how he can get more votes than he did in 2016.
A losing number of ENTHUSIASTIC votes is still a losing number of votes.
cp
(8,143 posts)I live in rural northern Wisconsin. Still a lot of Trumpers here. My friends in blue cities just don't come in contact with the cult.
So, Stay Focused.
Do everything in your power to vote, make it count, and get everyone you know to the polls.
Stay calm and work your ass off.
Thank you.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Michael Moore is a grifter. A total fraud. By "predicting" the worst outcome, he's encouraging the worst outcome. If it doesn't come true, everyone conveniently forgets how wrong he was and he never mentions it again. If the blind squirrel finds a nut... then he's hailed as a political genius that we should always listen to and heed every utterance and syllable that falls from his mouth.
Fuck him.
Snake Plissken
(4,103 posts)This will be a repeat of 2004, which should have been an easy win for John Kerry but Karl Rove successfully kept Democrats focused on same sex marriage instead of the disaster Bush created.
jorgevlorgan
(11,098 posts)He will always say this every time, in every election, no matter what. Because the likelihood of it happening is always higher than a lot of us like to think. Let's not let him be right this time.
Oscarthegreat
(121 posts)Moore is from Michigan, so he's definitely more attuned to the Midwest than a Californian like me. He may try to draw attention to himself, but he may be right, which is incredibly scary. What I know for sure is that Trumpism is a cult, and Trump cultists will crawl in the snow for a hundred miles to vote for him, while Democrats are rational, so they will never be as enthusaistic for their candidate. Trump cultists, nearly all of them racist and xenophobic, feel like they had been despised and looked down on for years by the "elite" and that Trump has given them back their dignity and self esteem, and will save them from becoming a looked down on minority.
Let's remember that when a trump cultists is confronted with over 180,000 dead and 6 million covid19 infected they'll reply that it's either a hoax, it's not Trump's fault, or it would be much worse if trump hadn't been President, the live in alternate reality and there's no rational there, they are just like Flat Earth cultists.
it is all BS, but let's not underestimate his base, they are utterly devoted to their cult leader and will not abandon him no matter what. We can overcome this only by an unprecedented voter turn out, there is no miracle cure, every single voter scared of Trump, and in my opinion we will become the Fourth Reich if he is President on 1/20/2021, should vote even if they have to wait in line in scorching sun or freezing rain for 12 hours, it's our only chance, and damn it, why are the Democrats not campaigning in Michwas in the bag and never bothered to campaign there.
Response to Kablooie (Original post)
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BlueWavePsych
(3,319 posts)Bill Maher admits it — the “optimistic” message presented at the Republican National Convention has him a little nervous — make that a lot nervous — that Donald Trump might win a second term as president.
“Maybe it’s just that their convention bump got to me. But I’m feeling less confident than I was a month ago,” the comedian and “Real Time” host told MSNBC’s Joy Reid on Friday.
Reid questioned the effectiveness of the RNC’s messaging, wondering if it moved those undecided voters resting in the moderate middle.
“The content wasn’t thrilling but the messaging was very specific — ‘If you voted for Donald Trump last time and you’re feeling a little icky about it because of the racism…” Reid said, “don’t worry about it. Look at these four Black guys. They like him. Look at these women. They think he’s nice.’ Like, it was literally just a permission slip saying, ‘You can do this again.'”
https://www.thewrap.com/bill-maher-nervous-about-presidential-election-joy-reid-video/
still_one
(98,883 posts)and when he said in 2000 that a vote for Gore was a vote bush, that goes to show how flawed he is
Gee Michael, you are saying the Biden campaign isn’t going to visit Michigan. How in the fuck would you know? The Biden/Harris campaign wisely isn’t including MM in their conversations or meetings
Also the polls he is referring to a C rated pollsters
No one is taking anything for granted
jcgoldie
(12,046 posts)... an endless stream of TV appearances this time of year in election season for being the left wing hero who repeatedly screams the sky is falling and we're gonna lose.
Oscarthegreat
(121 posts)The Trump cultists will vote for him even if they found out he has revealed the nuclear code to Putin, that's how bad it is. Even if we had a rock star ala 2008 Barak Obama, it would have been very difficult to defeat a cult leader like Trump, since it's impossible to dissuade any of his followers using reason. We have an uncharismatic 77 year old heading the ticket, unfortunately
Has Trump widens his base? He lost the popular vote in 2016 and his combined lead in the battle ground states was about 70,000 votes. We also know that many Democrats, and many Sanders supporters didn't bother to vote in 2016 because they didn't like Hillary, and some didn't bother to vote because they couldn't believe Trump could win. 2020 is different, because Democrats, and some undecided voters, now know what Trump is capable of, so now it's all about voter turnout. Voter suppression and fraud is the wild card we can't calculate. Regardless, unless we vote like never before, he will be President on 1/20/2021, and than god help us all. Vote, vote, vote and get many others to vote, it's our only chance.
The Mouth
(3,411 posts)Trump is doing much better than any but the most defeatist and paranoid on D. U. think.
I'm neither defeatest nor paranoid, but so many people here *HATE* Trump *SO* much that they underestimate him and his team.
No one EVER won a contest of any sort by underestimating the opposition. I know several people who pay lip service to Biden/Harris, because to do otherwise could end a career or, at the least, sever friendships, but watching body language closely, I'd bet otherwise when they get into the booth.
DBoon
(24,766 posts)Every time he makes a comment like this I donate money to the Biden campaign.
This time,i decided to really stick it to Michael Moore by ordering a yard sign.
I suggest everyone else who thinks this is BS do the same.
JudyM
(29,571 posts)Alerted on as analysis/opinion, forum hosts agree. Please post in GD instead.
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