Race tightens in Miami-Dade, giving hope to Trump in Florida

[kansasobama]

Source: Microsoft News

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's lead over President Trump in Florida's largest county is tightening, according to a new poll, bolstering the president's hopes in the must-win swing state.

The poll, from the firm Bendixen & Amandi International and the Miami Herald, shows Biden garnering 55 percent of the vote in Miami-Dade County to Trump's 38 percent. While that 17-point lead is well outside the poll's 4.4 percentage point margin of error, it's well short of then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's 30-point victory there in 2016.

The survey also found Biden and Trump statistically tied among Miami-Dade Hispanics. The former vice president carried 46 percent support among those voters to Trump's 47 percent.

There's little doubt that Biden will win Miami-Dade in the November election. Democratic presidential candidates have carried the county, which encompasses Miami and its suburbs, for decades.

But Trump doesn't need to win Miami-Dade in November to capture Florida's 29 electoral votes, and if he's successful at narrowing Biden's margin of victory there, it could help him make up for possible deficits in other parts of the state, such as in the swing counties along the I-4 corridor in Central Florida.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/race-tightens-in-miami-dade-giving-hope-to-trump-in-florida/ar-BB18PbTP?ocid=msedgdhp

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Okay Friends:

I am now freaking out. This is not soothing especially with Cohen's book saying Trump considers blacks and Hispanics stupid. And, here we have Hispanics for Trump. What Cohen means by stupid is probably that Trump can manipulate them.

Marist poll has Trump up by 1 in Florida as per fivethirtyeight. Another poll has Trump just 2 points behind in PA. To be frank, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida looks really really close. In addition, an article in fivethirtyeight says 30% Hispanics and Cuban Americans support Trump, 10% African-American voters support Trump and this has helped Trump survive the storm. I am at a loss at what is going on. I guess many Americans are either stupid or racists or tribal.

Really disappointed. Trump should be losing 48 states with all that is happening.

[OrlandoDem2]

1. I put the blame on Democratic Party leadership in FL. Results matter. Go look at the history of

the Democratic Party and its wins and losses since 1996. Abysmal!

Trump is a lousy candidate. If the state Democratic Party can’t get its junk together and win then it’s time for a house cleaning heat.

That said, Florida is complex. The Cubans are STILL living on the loss of Cuba to communism. All that anyone has to do is scream “communist”. Same with Venezuelans. They just don’t get it...out Party or the people.

Biden and Harris better both get down here in person and sew this up! ASAP. I’m sickened. We may lose 269 to 269 and have the election thrown to the House.

IF THE DNC AND THE FLORIDA DEMOCRATS COULD GOTV AND TURN FL BLUE WE WIN. It’s that simple!!!!!!

[caber09]

3. Please do your HW...Re: Biden and Harris better both get down here in person and sew this up!

Harris will be visiting Miami...tomorrow, its been scheduled for a few days already.

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/politics/2020/09/07/kamala-harris-campaign-miami-thursday/5738954002/

[NurseJackie]

8. I see lots hand-wringing and negativity... lots of blaming and scapegoating... and lots of threats.

What useful purpose does it serve? It's just another example of how people are oddly willing to do and say things that create an atmosphere of fear and hopelessness and negativity. Negativity generates apathy. Apathy discourages voter turnout. Low voter turnout gives Republicans a chance to steal the elections.

I trust our candidates and their campaign. They're not stupid, yet so many seem to believe they are. It's insulting.

[getagrip_already]

12. trolls and bots do what they do.....

don't take hand wringing seriously.

Is there a risk? possibly, but there is always a risk. Especially with voter suppression and mail fraud and all of the other tactics they are deploying.

Look, "hispanics" are not a block. Cubans don't see things the same way as mexicans or guatamalans.

Strict catholic hispanics don't see the world the same way as others.

It's the lay of the land. Let's put the team on the field, make sure they have what they need, and play the frickin game.

[OrlandoDem2]

14. If you lived here the way I have all 49 years of my life you'd feel the same.

I’ve seen this before. I have been on the losing side of so many elections in FL it’s not even funny.

[stillcool]

29. the rest of the country..

knows there is nothing funny about Florida. It's a shame the state government is what it is. No candidate for President is going to fix that...But it's always the candidates fault, never the people who do the effing voting. Year after year, for the same people. Makes me sick.

[JI7]

40. But you didn't even know Harris is scheduled to be there ?

[NurseJackie]

57. Interesting, no?

[AllTooEasy]

52. What purpose does complacency have?

Let me guess, you were part of the "She's Got This" crowd in 2016. How did that work out?

This post isn't negative, it's insightful. It's a call to arms. You can't solve a problem if you don't admit that you have one. Do you roll over and doze back off in bed when the fire alarm goes off??? No, you get to moving! Well, let's move! More effort, more donations, more in-person face time, no adds, and more promotion of Trump's horrible record.

Rosy colored glasses leads to bitter disappointments, or a historic disappointment like we had in 2016. Overconfidence leads to apathy, not what you call "negativity".

[NurseJackie]

55. You know perfectly well that the OP has not issued a "call to arms" or anything of the sort.

This post isn't negative, it's insightful. It's a call to arms.

You know perfectly well that the OP has not issued a "call to arms" or anything of the sort.

You can't solve a problem if you don't admit that you have one.

Our candidates are NOT a problem. Our candidates are not lazy. Our candidates are not stupid.

More effort, more donations, more in-person face time, no adds, and more promotion of Trump's horrible record.

The OP suggested nothing at all along those lines. It was just handwringing, worry, negativity, doubts, fear, uncertainty, blaming our party, blaming our candidate.

It's just another example of how people are oddly willing to do and say things that create an atmosphere of fear and hopelessness and negativity. Negativity generates apathy. Apathy discourages voter turnout. Low voter turnout gives Republicans a chance to steal the elections.

Let me guess, you were part of the "She's Got This" crowd in 2016. How did that work out?

Those who engage in this type of divisive rhetoric need to stop. It only creates resentment and distrust. We've had enough of this type of negativity and hopelessness and anger and bitterness from the likes of Susan Sarandon, Jill Stein, Michael Moore, Cenk Uygur, Bill Maher, Cornel West, Nina Turner (and many others). It serves NO good purpose to add to their chorus of division and doubt and scapegoating.

[still_one]

44. They will need to spend more time there, and they will

[NurseJackie]

5. I'm unaware of any evidence that indicates a candidate visiting (or not visiting) a state will move...

Biden and Harris better both get down here in person and sew this up! ASAP. I’m sickened. We may lose 269 to 269 and have the election thrown to the House.

I'm unaware of any evidence that indicates a candidate visiting (or not visiting) a state will move the votes one way or the other. Did I overlook something important?

I believe well placed and targeted ads would have more effect.

[OneBro]

9. Those numbers probably reflect the fundraising imbalance.

The Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) posted its best fundraising report in nearly two years, with more than $5.6 million raised between April 1 and Aug. 13. The haul came in across 233 contributions with the average check weighing in at just over $24,000. RPOF’s total more than doubled that of the Florida Democratic Party, which raised $2.15 million over the same stretch.

FDP’s haul was spread across 195 contributions for an average give of about $11,000.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/359085-florida-republicans-double-democrats-in-pre-primary-fundraising

[Escurumbele]

31. You are correct, Cubans, Venezuelans and the rest of Hispanics in support of those two

Venezuelans believe that trump is going to liberate them from Maduro, nothing further from the truth but they are convinced of it.

I have written to the DNC telling them about this, Biden needs to mention Venezuela, and not like he did the other day where he said that his administration "will support free and fair elections but they are not into 'regime change'" and Venezuelans know there will never be "free and fair elections" while the regime is in power. Maduro lost the last election, but the regime controls the CNE so they skewed the numbers in favor of Maduro.

Biden needs to do the following:

1. He needs to take the mask off trump, he can reference Chapter 9 of Bolton's book where Bolton describes how trump decides to move off Venezuela after Putin lies to him telling him that what USA is doing is giving strength to Maduro. Also, he needs to tell them what trump thinks of Maduro, that he is "strong and intelligent" as well as what he thinks of Guaido, "amateur and weak".

2. Biden needs to talk about the "free and fair" elections but if that doesn't happen then harder measures will be taken, and that nothing is off the table.

That is all he needs to say because trump is lying about it, and the Hispanic population in Florida is believing him 100%.

I have spoken to Venezuelans and this is what they tell me. "I know that trump is trash, but he is our only hope and Biden is not offering anything to us." I tell them that trump is lying, but that little hope he is giving them is enough for those who can vote to do it for him.

[Doug.Goodall]

38. We definitely could profit from a Get Out The Vote effort in Miami.

We need to locate every refugee from Puerto Rico that came here after hurricane Maria and register them to vote Democratic. Then make sure they can get to the polls to vote (or get their mail in ballot sent in).

[OneBro]

2. Biden's 17 point lead gives Trump hope?

"Biden garnering 55 percent of the vote in Miami-Dade County to Trump's 38 percent. While that 17-point lead is well outside the poll's 4.4 percentage point margin of error, it's well short of then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's 30-point victory there in 2016."

Well, as far as nail-biting goes, this is more like rubbing a thumb across the fingertips. True, in a sane world Biden would be leading by 60 or 70 points, but we haven't lived in a sane world for quite some time.

[mr_lebowski]

7. It's important because we need a huge win in Miami-Dade to have a chance to win the state

overall.

Just like it's key for Biden to have a huge lead in Philly to secure PA.

[OneBro]

11. I agree that it's important.

I just don't know enough about the ends and outs of Florida party politics to tell whether this is the result of fundraising differences, dropped balls by the Florida Democratic Party, a combination of both, or some yet unidentified foreign influences.

[OrlandoDem2]

19. How many governors have we elected since 1998? None. Senators?

Very few.

Only Obama actually won twice.

Our state party is horrible. If they don’t want the criticism, it’s time to win!

[OrlandoDem2]

16. It's called cutting the margins. It's how you win in FL. You don't try to appeal to the whole state.

You try to cut your opponents marginal wins and your marginal losses.

[FM123]

4. I am not ready to throw in the towel for Miami-Dade county just yet and neither should you.

We now have 618,985 registered Dems in the county, and only 394,050 registered repugs. And I am thinking that quite a few of our No Party Affiliation voters (some who are seniors furious at trump for his mishandling of covid) may go blue, and there are a lot of them down here too: 461,582

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

[FloridaBlues]

6. Keep in mind Miami Dade area has large Cuban voters who mostly vote Republican for decades

Florida hasn't been blue for over 30yrs. Even tho Obama won but we are still over run by republicans up and down the political office holders.
Fl will only be won by a point or two regardless. Biden and campaign is and will continue to outreach to Latino communities.
Trump has never stopped campaigning in south Florida we have seen it for over 4 yrs.
Yes Biden has a small amount of ground to make up with Latino voters what encourages me is the senior voter going for biden and they do come out.

[ananda]

17. This means that Trump will still have to pour money into Florida.

If he has any money left

[FloridaBlues]

23. Yes..if he has any money. Haven't seen many trump ads as yet.

[Escurumbele]

32. Putin will give him the money he needs

Maybe not directly, but he will take care of sending the propaganda for Hispanics to read or hear...

The bigger problem is that there is very little reading or fact-finding in the Hispanic community. I have friends who are Hispanic, I know.

The other day I received the video of Biden sleep during an interview, a Hispanic friend sent to me asking "is this true?". So I said...please, think about it, when Biden, of for that matter trump, are getting ready for a TV interview they have, sound engineers, light engineers, writers, the press, secretaries, helpers, and most important "The Campaign Manager", so ask yourself this question, from these number of people involved, do you really think that not one of them is going to say "the interview is in five minutes, do we let him sleep or should we wake him up?", and imagine the "Campaign Manager" who wants his/her candidate to look good not having him ready for the interview. THAT is how gullible they are, I do hate to say it, but they believe a lot of the stupidity that comes their way, so if Biden does not say they right things to them, they will continue to believe in trump and vote for him...its that bad, and I worry.

[radius777]

49. Agree. Low-info voters are vulnerable to propaganda

being pumped out on social media by the Russians/RW and Dems need a better defense against this. We need to do microtargeting the way Obama did, by understanding the communities better and what messages are working on them. Many voters like you said are one issue voters and if they don't hear what they need to hear they won't vote or will stupidly vote for Trump.

[yaesu]

10. polls mean very little, up or down, as we saw in '16. What matters is to keep repuke dirty tricks

at a minimum and get out the vote.

[kansasobama]

13. OrlandoDem2 is honestly worried- not negative- Trump is a second Castro-Cuban Americans!

With due respects, he is just concerned as I am.

17% Biden lead in Miami-Dade will not do it. Hillary had 30 and still lost. I don't get Cuban Americans. Trump likes North Korea style inauguration, likes the way Putin runs the country, is in love with dictators and they think Trump, another dictator-in-making, is the solution? Wake up, Cuban Americans.

Trump is a second coming of Fidel Castro. If Democrats cannot prove that, we have a problem. Harris does give some hope. She can speak. Obamas need to be there as well.

[napi21]

15. One thing that WILL gain Joe the senior vote is to push what DT is saying about the P/R tax! THAT

takes $$ right oput of SS! IF he makes it permanent SS will be gone by 2024! It's sure perked my ears up when I heard him say it! lot of those Fl. seniors get most of their income from SS, as do I. In fact SS is my ONLY income. The nation's JA likely doesn't even realize he gets SS & I'm not sure he even knows what it is. I've heard a few ads from the Dem. Party about the destruction of SS by DT but Joe & Kamala need to yell it in South Fla daily!

[RhodeIslandOne]

18. Do not expect to win Florida

Governor Ron DeKKKlantis has rigged the state.

[IronLionZion]

20. Miami is hardest hit by COVID

That could have a big impact on turnout this election. DeSantis is a real slimeball who will do whatever he can to suppress Dem votes.

We may have a better chance winning back states with Dem governors, like PA, Wisconsin, Michigan

[steve2470]

21. I think a lot of seniors in Florida will go for Biden, based on the pandemic

It is really personal for them.

[still_one]

41. The issue that needs to be pounded there is social security destruction by trump

[steve2470]

47. agreed! nt

[turbinetree]

22. I just gotta ask...............if the orange hair confection thought about these men

and what happened in Cuba.................


Brigade 2506: 118 killed 360 wounded 1,202 captured (including wounded) United States: 4 killed 2 B-26 bombers shot down 2 supply ships lost

Lets ask "all" of those families because after all anyone that gets killed or captured is a sucker and loser in the trump play book.............someone just got to ask..................the supporters

[FloridaBlues]

24. Let's not forget a high Caribbean vote there too and they love Harris!

Don't think they are included in this polling.

[beachbumbob]

25. never believe these polls, the one tomorrow will show Joe up 5, or whatever, the ROLL of the media

is to make this election appear close

[Thekaspervote]

26. Just MHO, agree with most here, we won't win FL. The good news, we don't need FL to win 270

The repukes do.

As far Mi a poll out this week shows Biden with a 10 pt lead, Wi 8 and PA 6. We do need to win those

[Stuart G]

27. The "Loser and Sucker" comment may change some in the middle.

..I am not sure it was counted in these polls. And that comment has gotten world wide publicity.

Further, Trump totally denied it, and that lie about U.S. soldiers that gave their lives, may convince some, maybe 5 percent of those undecided to vote for Biden. Just 5% will solidify a win in Florida.

About denying the "loser and sucker" comment: Who are independent minded voters, (not in the Trump Clan) going to believe? Trump or the writer of the article?..

We all know the answer to that one.

[orwell]

28. All of a sudden...

...low post counts proffering bad polling data...

Probably just coincidence...

[stillcool]

30. always ..

perception, perception, perception. I hate getting sucked in, ending up pissed at myself for clicking on the bs in the first place.

[Skittles]

37. yup

repeat offenders, too

[JI7]

43. The problem is only pointing out negatives without any suggestions of what to do

and then some demanding things while not even knowing Kamala Harris is scheduled to be there.

I do think Biden needs to focus on his pro small business record and go after trump for getting close to dictators in that state.

[BlueStater]

33. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the prick won Florida again, unfortunately.

Electing Rubio, electing Scott, reelecting Scott, reelecting Rubio, going for Trump in 2016, electing DeSantis, kicking Nelson out of the Senate in favor of fucking Scott...

Can Florida even really be called a purple state anymore? Sure as hell doesn’t seem like it to me.

[vercetti2021]

34. Doom and gloom post

I don't believe it. And not just that. Today a lot of low posting users are publishing doom articles. Yeah thanks for the concern

[AllTooEasy]

50. Did you believe the "doom and gloom" posts in 2016?

Or were you part of the complacent "She's Got This Crowd"?

Either way, how did that work out for ya?

Calls to Action post are not unhelpful.

[vercetti2021]

53. I voted

This isn't 2016. Whole new different ball game. You can call to action without stoking the MSM horseracing.

[NurseJackie]

58. Oh FFS! GMAFB! Nothing in the OP was a "call to action". It was a classic "we're doomed" post.

With a good measure of undeserved blame and scorn heaped on our party and our candidates. Nothing but negativity and division and contempt.

[obamanut2012]

60. bingo

[NurseJackie]

61. And the "defense" of such posts are damned offensive too.

Trying to justify today's contempt and divisiveness by blaming the "complacent" supporters of Hillary. Always so dramatic... and always devoid of any facts or appreciation of reality. Blaming Hillary, the party, her supporters, party leadership... it's just another way to promote division and resentment and distrust. That type of bitterness serves no good purpose and it ends up creating an atmosphere of negativity. Negativity generates apathy. Apathy discourages voter turnout. Low voter turnout gives Republicans a chance to steal the elections.


Here's Susan Sarandon being overly dramatic:

[vercetti2021]

62. Thank you Jackie

You are 100%. No call to action, just hit the panic button like everyone has been lately. Especially low posting users.

[Demsrule86]

66. This is not 2016...far from it. And let's face it...Stein and her supporters on the left

took just enough Democratic votes in blue wall states to win the EC...isn't happening this time. We would have won without Florida if the blue wall had held. I think we may very well win Florida but no matter what Trump has to spend money there. Trump barely won last time and he has lost support. So, maybe you should consider the effect doom and gloom posts have on voting...hint hint, it demoralizes voters and reduces the vote. Such posts are never helpful.

[Proximate Centurion]

35. Florida!

Please forgive the foul language.

[honest.abe]

36. No need to freak out.. Biden has many paths to victory without Florida.

Trump on the other hand loses for sure without Florida. Trumpers should be freaking out.

[SKKY]

63. Concur. Trump has no path to victory without Florida...

...Biden has tons without it. But, we need to make this as close as possible in Florida so Trump is forced to spend some of that money he doesn't have to defend it. This election is a game of attrition, and we need to make Trump defend states (Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, etc) that he should be winning easily.

[world wide wally]

39. Biden has to play up the SS point and stress Kamala's Jamaican roots

[still_one]

42. Yup

[Dopers_Greed]

45. Disappointing but not surprising

Trump is extremely popular with hispanic men, since his strongman antics invoke the Central and South American dictators.

[Naio]

46. https://www.elnuevodia.com/english/news/story/puerto-ricans-in-florida-support-joe-biden/

Puerto Ricans in Florida support Joe Biden
In Florida, 68 percent of the Puerto Rican electorate support Democratic candidate Joe Biden- while 28 percent support the Republican candidate - but according to the Equis Research poll, he still does not reach the support Hillary Clinton had among Hispanics in that state in 2016. https://www.elnuevodia.com/english/news/story/puerto-ricans-in-florida-support-joe-biden/

[radius777]

48. I don't believe this poll, seems like an outlier.

Latinos will not break even, that is ridiculous, and at the end of the day I think Biden will do simliarly to Hillary in Miami-Dade.

Biden/Harris is a stronger ticket than Clinton/Kaine and Trump has a (terrible, especially due to covid) record to defend. Thus, I see Biden doing better in the state overall. Obama/Biden did win the state twice.

[jgmiller]

51. I've been assumng from day 1 that FL would go for Trump again

That is why PA and the other swing states are critical. Florida would be great to win but seriously lets look at how many times they have managed to screw things up over the years. The fact that they voted for Obama twice was a strange anomoly and you could even say they managed to screw things up then for McCain and Romney. They are equal opportunity screw ups.

[rockfordfile]

54. Florida will be close.

This isn't late breaking. This isn't news at all.

[Aviation91]

56. The Biden Campaign...

needs to remind Cuban Americans in Florida that they/ancestors escaped Cuba because of Dictator which is exactly what they will be getting if they re-elect Donald Trump!!!! And Puerto Ricans should be reminded what a disaster their recovery has been since the first hurricane hit an devastated their homes and way of life which is why they are now in Florida!

They need to also hammer into seniors' heads that Donald Trump is trying to get rid of Social Security by eliminating the payroll tax. I'm a federal worker and I can't waive that being withheld from my check! It will end Social Security by 2023 and if you are in your 70's and 80's that is your lifeline!!!

[DeminPennswoods]

59. Fernand Amandi was a frequent AMJoy guest

He despises Trump and isn't shy about saying so.

[onetexan]

64. Please, stop the freakouts. Currently Biden leads in all swing states but OH & GA

Also look at RCP latest polls here:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/

Top Battlegrounds 9/9 48.6 44.9 Biden +3.8
Florida September 9th 47.8 47.0 Biden +0.8
Pennsylvania September 9th 49.0 44.7 Biden +4.3
Michigan September 9th 47.0 43.8 Biden +3.2
Wisconsin September 9th 50.3 43.3 Biden +7.0
North Carolina September 9th 48.5 47.0 Biden +1.5
Arizona September 9th 49.0 43.3 Biden +5.7

Not all Latino ethnicities are the same. Cubans have different values/what issues they deem important than Puerto Ricans, Caribbean Latinos, Mexican Americans, Central Americans, etc.
If Cuban Americans don't vote Biden, so be it. We are less than 2 months to the election and Biden is and has been consistently ahead the past few months. Stop the freakouts.

[Demsrule86]

65. And you ignore the good news...and there is plenty...doom and gloom post...

I am not freaking out and I suggest you perhaps look at some additional polls...