Nation Could See A 'Very Deadly December' With Tens of Thousands of Coronavirus Deaths To Come, Mode

[appalachiablue]

Source: CNN/MSN

By Amir Vera, Jay Croft and Christina Maxouris, CNN, 11 hrs ago.

An influential model is predicting a catastrophic winter with a significant rise in coronavirus deaths. A possible scenario sees 415,090 Covid-19 deaths by January, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington says in its latest forecast. The worst-case scenario is 600,000 deaths by January 1.

"When we look ahead into the winter with seasonality kicking in, people becoming clearly less vigilant, you know mask use is down, mobility is up in the nation, you put all those together and we look like we're going to have a very deadly December ahead of us in terms of toll of coronavirus," IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray told CNN's Anderson Cooper.

The IHME model is essentially predicting the number of deaths will double in the next four months. As of Friday, nearly 6.4 million infections have been recorded in the US and more than 192,000 Americans have died, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Despite the dire prediction, President Donald Trump says the US has done "really well" in fighting the virus, according to a Thursday video on the White House official Facebook page. "I really do believe we're rounding the corner and the vaccines are right there, but not even discussing vaccines and not discussing therapeutics, we're rounding the corner," Trump said. Speaking with MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell on Friday, Dr. Anthony Fauci said he does not agree with the President's statements...


Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/nation-could-see-a-very-deadly-december-with-tens-of-thousands-of-coronavirus-deaths-to-come-model-predicts/ar-BB18Vrcz?ocid=msedgdhp

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Dr. Fauci said, "We're plateauing at around 40,000 cases a day, and the deaths of around 1,000." He is the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Test positivity is increasing in some regions of the country and with cooler weather people are spending more time indoors, Fauci said. "That's not good for a respiratory-borne virus," he said. "You don't want to start off already with a baseline that's so high."...More...
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FULL ARTICLE TITLE, Cut off above: 'Nation could see a 'very deadly December' with tens of thousands of coronavirus deaths to come, model predicts'

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Good in a way, the MAGAt Insurrection should be self-extinguishing

Last edited Sat Sep 12, 2020, 10:29 AM - Edit history (1)

All we have to do is hunker down and not engage.

I think I'm going to call them MAGA-NB

MAGAt Naked Breather for not wearing masks

[Evolve Dammit]

5. Easier said than done. Can't even get groceries safely; too many maskless morons

[LisaL]

7. Use delivery services.

NT

[Evolve Dammit]

20. You are probably right. If people can't take care of each other, guess we have to modify life. Sad.

[Bengus81]

10. Even Walmart neighborhood markets here say no mask,no service

And people comply. Maybe has something to do with almost 15,000 new cases in August in Kansas. More than in April and May combined when CV was really surging and record days with 1200+ new cases. That's because Republicans couldn't stand the fact that Dem Gov Laura Kelly was keep CV in check with closings and later very limited openings. Nope...Republicans on State and local basis threw Kansas wide open a couple of months ago and now it really IS what it IS.

If predictions hold this will be a freakin disaster around here in the fall and winter. I'll be climbing the walls being a shut-in by Dec.

[Evolve Dammit]

19. So unecessary. Never imagined a pandemic being politicized, Un freaking believable.

[duforsure]

2. Trump and republicans are opening allowing American people to be killed

There's a special place in hell for people enabling this to continue .

[yardwork]

3. A second wave in the winter has been predicted for months.

Our problem is that the U.S. never contained the first wave. Because of poor leadership and people's ignorance and selfishness, the virus is still rampant.

As Fauci says, we're going into peak virus season with a high baseline. Bad situation.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. At least here in Philly so far

we have seen mask usage continuing to increase and as of the last city presser Thursday, the informal "survey" that they do each week (looking at shopping areas and public transit) was that these locations were up to 90% mask-wearing (at least this past week). In previous weeks, it had been averaging in the 60% range.

[Javaman]

6. You know hat happens when you keep rounding the corner?

You go in circles

And that’s where we are with the orange asshole

[Botany]

8. We shouldn't be going through this hellscape now.

[DeminPennswoods]

9. Not sure why anyone takes this model seriously

The modelers are forever changing input factors. No doubt there should be tweaks when facts and/or new data warrant it, but there should be a lot more stability in forecasts than this model provides. TBH, this model is not much more credible than a SWAG you or I would take.

Here in western PA, it's not too bad at all. People wear masks when they go inside to shop, but otherwise, practically no one wears a mask when they are outside. Further, if people continue to wear masks, they won't be spreading flu germs around either.

[Tommymac]

13. Go to Clarion. Big Difference.

Pittsburgh/Allegheny Co are doing well thanks to strict measures earlier by Gov Wolfe, Mayor Bill Peduto, & Co Exec Rich Fitgerald.

This in no way compares to what Pennsyltucky counties are doing. At best 50% mask use there from my experiences this summer.

[paleotn]

14. This winter's outbreak will be...

centered on red states and red counties. A vaccine available to most people by winter is a pipe dream. Regardless, I think red area politicians are lulled into believing winter transmission won't differ much from summer and fatalities will remain low. A fatal mistake.

In other parts of the country, we know better, most will accept the necessary precautions and the spread will be blunted. Not zero, but far more controlled. In places like TN, KY, IA, SD and a host of others, it will spread like wildfire, their healthcare system will be overwhelmed and it will by NYC all over again, with overflowing morgues, PPE shortages and new round of lockdowns.....but instead of NYC, it will be places like Greenville, SC, Lexington, KY, Little Rock, AR and Birmingham, AL. A tragic, preventable disaster of biblical proportions.

Math and human nature team up to hammer red America. Karma for 4 years of Donnie. I hate to say it. It goes against the principles I live by, but I'm tired. Bone tired. So let them burn. They brought it on themselves.

[appalachiablue]

17. Unfortunately sounds like the way it will go, more nightmare.

[DeminPennswoods]

15. Hardly anyone wears masks outside

here in Beaver county. Masks are only worn inside because it's mandatory. We've had some cases, but they're related to the Shell cracker plant construction and a couple of local nursing homes.

[Tommymac]

18. Yup

We spent a few nights in a motel in Clarion last week - at least 25 construction workers stayed there too over several nights...nary a mask among them and they hung out in the lobby, rode the elevator, and not a peep from the staff. Mandatory mask signs everywhere.

Was supposed to be a mini vacation away from it all...ha. Was glad to get home to Pittsburgh.

[Bengus81]

11. New cases and deaths won't matter to Trump Humpers until Jan 20th at noon.

In fact then they'll be out in force touting this seemingly brand new pandemic.

[GeorgeGist]

12. Merry Christmas ...

and a Happy New Year.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

16. Winter seems like the best time to wear a mask

Often so cold around here you want a face mask in the winter. I don't why people would stop wearing them then.