US Coronavirus: The Delta Variant Will Cause 'Very Dense Outbreaks' In These Five States, Expert Say
Source: MSN/CNN
The Delta variant, a strain of Covid-19 believed to be more transmissible and dangerous than others, is likely to break out in some US communities, a health expert told CBS's "Face the Nation." "It's not going to be as pervasive," Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, said Sunday. "It's going to hyper-regionalized. "There's certain pockets of the country where you're going to have very dense outbreaks."
Those pockets will be ones with low vaccination rates and low rates of prior infection, Gottlieb said, like in many rural and southern communities. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 46.1% of the total US population has been vaccinated against Covid- 19. Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Wyoming are among the states with the lowest vaccination rates, with less than 35% of their population fully vaccinated.
The national figure is far from the 70 to 85% of the population experts including Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated would likely need to become immune through vaccine or prior infection to control the virus' spread -- and with vaccine rates declining, some officials worry the US will not get to that threshold.
To get ahead of a potential outbreak, Gottlieb recommended governors build up health care resources in vulnerable communities and leaders adopt a grassroots vaccination campaign for the fall...
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/us-coronavirus-the-delta-variant-will-cause-very-dense-outbreaks-in-these-five-states-expert-says/ar-AALwpv0
(Title cut off at end, ...'Says').
- Read the Full Article for more information.
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
mucifer
(25,542 posts)
Stuart G
(38,726 posts)500, 000 deaths...due to Covid...Is that correct?..According to this link over 600,000 Deaths...
Hit the link below, and take a look:
https://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&aq=&oq=Covid+Deaths+&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4GGNI_enUS494US495&q=covid+deaths+in+us&gs_l=hp..0.0i433l2j0i457j0i402l2.0.0.0.10090...........0.E5kBax0xfns#spf=1624933800182
progree
(12,752 posts)The New York Times data is that 46% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated. While it's higher for adults, unless I've missed something somewhere, children also catch and spread the disease, and more so for the variants than the original strain.
46% is bad, IMHO.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
And daily new cases in the U.S. are on the rise again (7 day moving average) --
U.S.: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15571073
And in the world: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15571119
Both have been falling for months before turning up about a week ago.
Ms. Toad
(38,345 posts)
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Many of our counties are doing a great job with getting vaccinated. Last I checked some of the rural(red) ones were below 30%.
My county is good.
So I expect soon rural churches will be the epicenter of most of our big outbreaks. But those countries never had mask mandates.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)...or Hell, as the case may be...
Sort of a Heaven's Gate scenario...
Elessar Zappa
(16,385 posts)many blue states are 60%+ fully vaccinated, almost 70% partial.
speak easy
(12,595 posts)Fauci issues warning on more transmissible Delta variant
https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2021/06/23/anthony-fauci-delta-variant-kids/
Delta variant could threaten children this summer
https://wkow.com/2021/06/27/delta-variant-could-threaten-children-this-summer/
Spread of Delta Variant Marks ‘Most Dangerous’ Time in Pandemic for Kids
May Force Schools to Re-Up Safety Measures, Experts Say
https://www.the74million.org/article/spread-of-delta-variant-marks-most-dangerous-time-in-pandemic-for-kids-may-force-schools-to-re-up-safety-measures-experts-say/
ShazzieB
(22,240 posts)
karynnj
(60,811 posts)The rate of covid cases is way down.
VMA131Marine
(5,176 posts)60.5%
66% have at least one shot.
It would be nice if we could get to 70+% at least.
Warpy
(114,413 posts)although the higher the rate, the fewer people will get sick with this.
You also have to add the number of people who survived the disease, they also have immunity to it. Areas with particularly bad outbreaks last fall might do better than places with mild outbreaks with the same % of vaccinated people.
So far, lower vaccine compliance is correlating to higher numbers of cases We'll have to see how this plays out, but usually pigheaded stupidity is its own worst enemy.
SheltieLover
(76,993 posts)I kept clicking on the link earlier, but CNN site was giving error message.
Good grief! Vax rates below 35%? 
appalachiablue
(43,887 posts)is always important as they say, lol.
The vax rates don't look so good at first, but there's info and perspectives that are a little more more positive mentioned upthread in #4, 5, 13.
abqtommy
(14,118 posts)
vanlassie
(6,222 posts)
Chainfire
(17,757 posts)"You can lead the whores to salvation but you can't make them take a shot." Or something like that.
gab13by13
(31,342 posts)Duppers
(28,468 posts)
mahina
(20,447 posts)They are Americans before they are Republicans and way before they are misinformed.
This would be a really good time for DU to moderate our habit of bashing people in the south. Yes they should get their vaccines, yes they should’ve already gotten them but you know what? They live in a different information environment than we do, and some of them are innocents.
Chainfire
(17,757 posts)When I was in the service a self inflicted wound was a court martial offense. If a person decides to jump in front of a speeding train, who am I to cry alligator tears over their decision.
I find it hard to feel sorry for them basically because I believe that their reticence is based upon their politics. Let them turn to DT, Fox News and the Republican Party for their treatment when they become ill.
Eyeball_Kid
(7,604 posts)Sorry, but if you’re over 21, or even over 18, you’re considered an adult. You CHOOSE your information environment. Information about this deadly virus is everywhere. Alabama, Mississippi— whatever. You can choose ignorance. People choose ignorance all the time. There’s no need to make them victims of an information environment. Hell, people have even made a religion out of being ignorant. So if you’re in a 35% state, you still have ample opportunity to learn about Covid and get vaccinated any day of the week. But if you choose ignorance, you won’t.
mahina
(20,447 posts)
orleans
(36,686 posts)shot -- my heart aches for the children who will contract this and who knows what the fallout from it will be later in their lives.
and, frankly, i don't want to see *anyone* suffering and dying from what could've been prevented. not even the ignorant ones and the trumpers.
i've heard people say it's thinning the herd.
i suppose it is. but i find no satisfaction in that.
i think it's heartbreaking.
mahina
(20,447 posts)Exactly
sarge43
(29,173 posts)Nursing homes, prisons, etc?
People who have medical conditions such as compromised immune systems?
Response to mahina (Reply #8)
appalachiablue This message was self-deleted by its author.
progree
(12,752 posts)Both have been faling for months until the 7 day moving average started turning up about a week ago.
U.S.: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15571073
World: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15571119
appalachiablue
(43,887 posts)and info. below about effectiveness of the three US vaccines.
progree
(12,752 posts)
Martin68
(27,123 posts)appalachiablue
(43,887 posts)follow CNN and get this info., I hope.
progree
(12,752 posts)hospitalizations against the Delta variant --
From that data, health experts estimate that the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines are about 90% effective at preventing illness and 94% effective against severe illness and hospitalization from the Delta variant said CNN medical analyst Dr. Jonathan Reiner.
"The problem is we don't have the same data for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine in the US," he added.
Although about 12 million people have received the single-dose vaccine, health experts do not yet have data on how it protects against the Delta variant
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/us-coronavirus-the-delta-variant-will-cause-very-dense-outbreaks-in-these-five-states-expert-says/ar-AALwpv0
ShazzieB
(22,240 posts)Those are odds I can live with. (Pun unintentional. 
)
I sure hope kids can get vaccinated soon. For all the wacky antivaxxers, I know for a fact that there are loads of parents who will line up to get their kids vaxxed at the first opportunity.
I wish there was some way to force all the idiot MAGAts, QAnonists, and other tinfoil hat wearers to get their damned shots. If it was just a matter of them getting sick, I wouldn't care, but they are making the whole country a less safe and healthy place to be, and they don't have that right! 
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)That 60% fully vaccinated and we fully open 100% July 1st.
appalachiablue
(43,887 posts)there, spent many trips in Santa Fe and environs, Taos, and a bit of Albuquerque.
roamer65
(37,818 posts)GET VACCINATED.
Major Nikon
(36,925 posts)Those of us who had zero tolerance of them pointed out that kind of stupid manages to kill people. The difference is now it’s doing it wholesale thanks to those who were stupid enough to vote for an anti-vax loon presidunce with a cult following.
DBoon
(24,766 posts)
C Moon
(13,492 posts)When the Delta version hit the news, they decided to get vaccinated. They went out today and got the first dose.
appalachiablue
(43,887 posts)
AllyCat
(18,567 posts)So glad they changed their minds
ShazzieB
(22,240 posts)
There's these four and then Wyoming out there all by itself. Hey, get with the program, Wyoming! Do you really want to be the Delta variant capital of the west?
AZLD4Candidate
(6,734 posts)Wyoming is TFG country, as is these four states we should have let go in 1861.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Silly comment.
AZLD4Candidate
(6,734 posts)Bye! Make sure you take missouri and kentucky with you. . .and west virginia as well.
appalachiablue
(43,887 posts)on the left, some are residents of the whitest city in America.
"We should have let them (the southern states) go." Just not give a ___, let black Americans remain in slavery, and allow the vile practice to spread futher west in the US and more.
muriel_volestrangler
(105,624 posts)Missouri is seeing a concerning uptick in hospitalizations due to Covid-19's Delta variant, which originated in India. In Springfield alone, there has been a 225% increase in hospital admissions since June 1, according to the Springfield-Greene County Health Department
The Delta variant -- which has been found to be more transmissible than others -- now accounts for about 29% of cases in Missouri, more than any other state, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
And vaccination rates in Missouri remain below average, CDC data shows. About 38% of the state's population is fully vaccinated, compared to nearly 46% of the US population overall.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/24/us/missouri-covid-19-delta-variant-vaccine/index.html
Pobeka
(4,999 posts)
LisaL
(47,358 posts)NT
Yavin4
(37,182 posts)and that would go a long way to rectifying the situation in these Southern states because you would hit the most vulnerable populations.
While I'm all in favor of vaccination, making vaccination a condition for access to health care for those dependent on government assistant is a step too far.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Yavin4
(37,182 posts)What would you do to get them vaccinated? Everything else has been done from outreach to lotteries.
Ms. Toad
(38,345 posts)For now, I'm less focused on getting them vaccinated than I am on ensuring that we continue to protect ourselves, and our children who are not yet vaccinated.
If we can't be bothered to determine who has been vaccinated, and require them to wear masks on something more than the honor system, we need to go back to everyone masking and social distancing. We probably also need to start investing in overhauling the HVAC systems to better filter out the virus (different air flow patterns, installation of HEPA or UV filtration devices), etc.
Same way we kept people safe before we had vaccines.
This disease is deadly, disabling, and unpredictable. Too many people around here (and in the country more broadly) are focusing on death as the only consequence that matters, ignore the 15% of the country that can't yet be vaccinated, don't understand the threat that a significant unvaccinated population poses for all of us (in the creation of variants which may ultimately be different enough to avoid the immunity vaccinations created.
And frankly most don't understand high school math. The miniscule numbers being touted here are nowhere near reality - even as to breakthrough cases and death, let alone any of the other significant consequences of COVID. They are a snapshot in time, in a particular population, with mitigation measures in place, and no Delta variant.
When that snapshot is adjusted for the factors that caused it, and for the duration of the measuring period, the picture will be very different. But cause the teeny number looks so good, and people are tired of wearing masks, they are latching onto it. Just as the exponential growth represented in earlier surges wasn't intuitive, so people dismissed the warnings as ridiculously exaggerated, the reality of risk, over time without mitigation measures in effect, makes people who don't have a good grasp on how it was calculated (or what that means long term, rather than the 0-3 month exposure snapshot) think those of us who do are exaggerating the risk. That perception is causing peopld to take stupid risks that will result in a major surge among the unvaccinated, and a minor surge (5-12% as high for those vaccinated with MRNA vaccines and at least 25% as high for those vaccinated with the J&J vaccines).
As for how to get them vaccinated. It's too late now for those states that went with lotteries - but a flat out payment for vaccination would have been far more effecive than a lottery to induce vaccination. Once we have final FDA approval, encourage employer mandates - or incentivize employers to encourage mandates with tax cuts (or some other tangible benefit) tied to % of employees mandted. Implement vaccine passports for indoor events that either exclude or requre maskng for anyone without the passport. What is entirely inappropriate is mandating vaccination for a class of people based on their need for government assistance.
But the far easier thing - since we seem to be inclined to be lazy - is to just go back to mandatory masking for everyone.
Time and time again when we start making headway against this disease, people turn stupid and decide it's over/not so bad. If we can't get past that attitude we're never going to be even relatively safe from it.
Yavin4
(37,182 posts)And how exactly are you going to enforce this? How? State governors control mask mandates and social distancing, and the states with the lowest vaccination rates are ALSO THE STATES THAT WON'T ENFORCE THESE MITIGATION MEASURES.
Except that we didn't keep people safe before. Our worst outbreaks were at the end of last year and the beginning of this year when our 7-day average was 250,000 cases.
You consistently step on your own arguments over and over again. In one statement, this is a grave threat to us all, but in another statement we have to wait for some mystical bureaucratic procedures before we can mandate a life saving measures.
The data clearly shows that the vaccines, not the masks nor the social distancing, did more to reduce the spread than anything else. Look at these trend lines at the link. For example, look at the group aged 75+ years. Before the vaccination program went into full swing, that group had a peak 7-day average of 59 cases per 100,000 when there were states with mask mandates. Today that 7-day average is at 1.47 cases per 100,000. The difference? THE VACCINES!!!!
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations-cases-trends
No. It's not about being lazy. It's about using the solution that has been proven to work, vaccines. Masks are not an alternative to vaccines. That's just false on its face. Mandatory masking only works when compliance is enforced and that people wear the correct mask. Neither of which will happen.
The only way to protect people from the Delta variant is to use mandates through Medicaid and Medicare and through health insurance companies.
Ms. Toad
(38,345 posts)Nothing I said discouraged vaccination, suggested it was not an extremely effectve tool, or suggested masking and social distancing were better. Suggesting I did is dishonest and disrespectful.
You seem fixated on using only one tool. We have many tools in our toolbox, and we should be using more of them. Vaccines, alone, will not get us past the threat of COVID because the vaccination rate is about 50%. Until the vaccination rate is sufficient to keep our children safe, keep us safe from the Delta variants, and minimize the risk of developng new variants we need to put back in place the measures that flattened the curve in the past (until we got lazy/impatient and ditched them0. In simple terms, we need to use all of the tools in our toolbox - rather than droppng the tools that have been effective in the past when a brighter shinier tool pops up. It's not either/or. It's AND.
As for mandatory vaccination - no government mandates until it has full FDA approval, and no government mandates in a way that discriminations based on class or age/disability (which our Medicaid/Medicare system does). (Health insurance companies don't have the ability to mandate vaccination.)
Yavin4
(37,182 posts)Yes. Because that's the tool that has worked and continues to work more effectively than any other tool.
No. We do not have many tools in our toolbox. Masks and social distancing are "mitigation" measures, not solutions. They somewhat lessen the problems, but they do not solve the problem. Requiring me to wear a mask and social distance in NYC is not going to contain the virus in Mississippi in any way.
Here comes the value judgments. Right? People who followed the CDC guidelines and got their vaccines are "lazy/impatient" for wanting to enjoy their freedom. How long exactly should the fully vaccinated have to wait? And, what do you propose that we do to get more people vaccinated outside of mandates in these low vaccination states? What's your endgame other than throwing around value judgments?
Ms. Toad
(38,345 posts)There is absolutely no reason to rely exclusively on a single tool. So long as tools do not conflict wtih each other, using more tools are safer than using a single tool.
Medical personell, when going into a room with a very contagiuos person don't rely on just one layer of protecton (a mask). They add additional layers of protection - from eye protection, to full body suits, to negative pressure rooms - depending on the threat level.
Yet somehow you can't wrap your mind around using multiple tools to keep all of us safe. When vaccines came along, you have to toss all others aside? And you think that's not being lazy/impatient? Fully vaccinated people should be resposible members of society and participate in protecting themselves and others untlil the threat is really and truly minimal for all of us - not just selfishly toss off their masks and leave the 0-12 to fend for themselves, turn a blind eye to the threat of variants, etc. We live in community with others - not as little vaccinated pods who are insulated from the rest of the world.
While you scoff at masks, each of dramatic increases have been during periods when people decided wearing masks was too difficult. Each of the dramatic declines (aside from the most recent ones) have been when we have taken the responsible route of consistently masking - mandating it in many instances - and social distancing. I have never, ever, proposed masking alone as a solution.
Currently only about 50% of people are vaccinated.
Until around 70% are vaccinated, it is not safe for the 15% of the population who are prohibited by law from being vaccinated. It is unsafe for everyone for us to continue to allow the vaccine to circulate and infect others because doing so creates more variants (which will likely, if they have not already, succeed in getting past the vaccine immunity). When the unvaccinated are not wearing masks and spreading COVID, including the Delta variants, the numerical likelihood of breakthrough cases increases in direct proportion to the number of exposures. The ways of countering that are to add layers of mitigation - masking when inside with others of unknown vaccination status, social distancing, etc.
My endgame is the same as it has been since January 2020 - when I was warning of exponential growth and a significant portion of the DU insisted I was being alarmist: to get me and everyone I love through safely. I am appalled at how many on DU have decided that wearing a mask for a few months longer - even if it is only until everyone is legally permitted to be vaccinated - is just too much of a burden.
As for increasing vaccination - I already answered that question.
Yavin4
(37,182 posts)Which implies that all tools are the same which they are not. Some tools lessen the problem while other tools largely eliminate the problem.
This is an inapt comparison. In this case, the PPE is the solution to handling a contagious person. With covid, the vaccine is the solution to ending the disease.
Chock full of value judgments there. There are no multiple tools. There is just one solution, vaccination. As a vaccinated person, wearing a mask in city with over 70% vaccinated does absolutely nothing to stop the spread of the virus. Nothing. Why? Because the people who you want to protect refuse to get vaccinated and refuse to wear masks, and nothing will change their choices. So, the virus will live in the U.S. no matter what you or I do personally until we can get these people vaccinated.
wow. You love to judge people don't you. Using your solution, it won't be a few months. There will be no end point because people refuse the vaccinations. You may think that you're saving lives by wearing a mask, but the truth is that you are not, and the data shows that. More people died of COVID-19 when mask wearing and social distancing regulations were firmly in place than at any other time during the pandemic.
The only "tool" that stopped the cases, hospitalizations, and deaths was the vaccine, and by not calling for vaccine mandates and passing judgments on the fully vaccinated, you are allowing the virus to thrive because you are giving people the false impression that masks and the vaccines are equivalent tools which they are not.
It's the people who do not call for vaccine mandates and pass judgments on the fully vaxxed that contribute to the problem.
Ms. Toad
(38,345 posts)Absolutely nothing in anything I have ever written suggests I believe all tools are equal - let alone all tools to address COVID.
A suggestion that using two tools implies they are equivalent is ridiculous.
ShazzieB
(22,240 posts)"As a vaccinated person, wearing a mask in city with over 70% vaccinated does absolutely nothing to stop the spread of the virus. Nothing. Why? Because the people who you want to protect refuse to get vaccinated and refuse to wear masks, and nothing will change their choices. So, the virus will live in the U.S. no matter what you or I do personally until we can get these people vaccinated."
As a vaccinated person living in a 70% vaccinated blue state, I am in the same boat. Furthermore, the Dept. of Public Health in my state, which has been cautious all the way along, with a continuous mask mandate in place beginning in March 2020, is now telling me I don't have to wear a mask. I've been trusting that they know what they're doing all the way along, and now I'm supposed to believe they suddenly don't? To quote our president, come on, man!
Response to appalachiablue (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Rhiannon12866
(250,741 posts)My New York county went up to 63% today, still disappointing, but higher than a lot of other New York counties - and agreed that most parts of the country need to do much better... 
See How Vaccinations Are Going in Your County and State
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html
progree
(12,752 posts)Rhiannon12866
(250,741 posts)It's pretty depressing since we have numerous vaccination sites, many of which are now accepting walk-ins.
Voltaire2
(15,377 posts)bucolic_frolic
(54,143 posts)"Gee, I dunno, boss. I dunno."
Roisin Ni Fiachra
(2,574 posts)In general, however, the white folks there are mean, tragically ignorant, and dangerously misinformed.
Pobeka
(4,999 posts)I found the report at the CDC (maybe it was the NIH) where the 70% target was developed. (I apologize for not having that link at the ready, I'll see if i can dig it up and post it here.) On edit -- here it is:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7019e3.htm?s_cid=mm7019e3_w
They had several organizations run sophisticated epidemiological models, and the baseline infection rate used was that of the Alpha variant.
Delta is approximately 60% more infectious than Alpha, and when you consider the exponential nature of 60% more, it does not mean there will be 1.6 times as many infections as Alph after a month , it means there will be 1.6 * 1.6 * 1.6 * 1.6 = 6.5 times as many infections as Alpha would have produced. (assuming a one week infection/retransmission cycle).
This Delta variant is super effective at transmission, and failure of people to understand how these basic numbers are at play puts us right back where we were last year because of refusal of those able to be vaccinated but refuse to do so.
BlueWavePsych
(3,319 posts)
onetexan
(13,913 posts)BlueWavePsych
(3,319 posts)
former9thward
(33,424 posts)That is not when the pandemic started.
BlueWavePsych
(3,319 posts)CDC probably had best data source at that time 
former9thward
(33,424 posts)That does not seem likely.
BradAllison
(1,879 posts)former9thward
(33,424 posts)Yeah, I guess. Others may differ...
Steelrolled
(2,022 posts)This chart is politics at its worst.
Javaman
(65,185 posts)we currently only have vaxx rate of 46.8 percent.
yay for us...
Steelrolled
(2,022 posts)